I have 10 years of backtested simulated performance of some trading strategy (using historical prices), and N months of actual trading performance. What statistical test can I do find out if I'm on target with the backtesting numbers? (both, in terms of expected annual returns and expected annual Sharpe ratio)
Tell me more
×
Cross Validated is a question and answer site for
statisticians, data analysts, data miners and data visualization experts. It's 100% free, no registration required.
|
|
|
Letting $\psi_1, \psi_2$ be the sample Sharpe ratios of the two periods, the difference $\Delta \psi = \psi_1 - \psi_2$ is asymptotically normal. Under the null hypothesis that the population Sharpe ratios in the two periods are equal, the difference is asymptotically mean zero. The standard deviation is approximately $\sqrt{\frac{1}{120} + \frac{1}{n}}$, when your Sharpe ratios are 'annualized' to monthly terms. So the simplest test would be to reject the null if $|\Delta\psi|> 1.96 \sqrt{\frac{1}{120} + \frac{1}{n}}$. My answer here is just a realization of @drnexus' answer to this question. |
|||
|
|
