Say that you're making a political research, and you want to know how many people vote to Party A and how many vote to Party B. (There are only two choices.)
You make a random survey of 10 people, and find that 1 out of your 10 votes A, while the other 9 vote B.
What would you conclude is the average expected ratio of A voters in the general population?
Most people's intuition would say
0.1. But I calculated it and it came out as
1/11. It's definitely possible I made a mistake in my calculation. Can you tell me whether my result makes sense?