Looking for correct distribution for modelling foosball scoring

Question

I'm, trying to adapt something like http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Statistical_association_football_predictions to 2v2 foosball games at our office.

For football, they basically have an offense score and a defense score for each time. The game is a fixed length of time. They then use poisson regression based on the scoring history to try to find out each teams offensive/defensive values.

The problem is different for foosball, and I think poisson may not be the correct distribution to use. For the following reasons:

1. We play first to 10 points, not for a fixed length of time
2. Players switch positions after their team scores 5 points

Can anyone recommend a better distribution or a way of approaching the problem. We don't need a 100% optimal solution, but we are aiming for something that is reasonably ok.

Bonus points for ideas on how to split the offense/defense ratings among the players.

Answer 1

Here is a link explaining how ELO rankings are used in an actual foosball league. It goes into quite a lot of depth.