I'm trying to adapt something like this association football prediction approach to 2v2 foosball games at our office.
For football, they basically have an offense score and a defense score for each time. The game is a fixed length of time. They then use Poisson regression based on the scoring history to try to find out each team's offensive/defensive values.
The problem is different for foosball, and I think Poisson may not be the correct distribution to use. For the following reasons:
- We play first to 10 points, not for a fixed length of time
- Players switch positions after their team scores 5 points
Can anyone recommend a better distribution or a way of approaching the problem? We don't need a 100% optimal solution, but we are aiming for something that is reasonably ok.
Bonus points for ideas on how to split the offense/defense ratings among the players.