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Yesterday's question Determine accuracy of model which estimates probability of event got me curious about probability scoring.

The Brier score $$\frac{1}{N}\sum\limits _{i=1}^{N}(prediction_i - reference_i)^2$$ is a mean squared error measure. Does the analogous mean absolute error performance measure
$$\frac{1}{N}\sum\limits _{i=1}^{N}|prediction_i - reference_i|$$ have a name, too?

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Google allowed me to find this paper where something very similar is named $L_1$-calibration score. Note that this score is a bit different than yours, anyway "$L_1$ score" seems the good keyword. – Elvis Jan 4 '12 at 17:23
What search terms did you use? Googling I mainly learned how many different tumour scores exist (L1 meaning lymphnode involvement in that context)... – cbeleites Jan 5 '12 at 8:12
Something like "L1 score probability"... may be I've been lucky – Elvis Jan 5 '12 at 8:17
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Or google tries to help me and thinks I'm looking for tumours because that's what I do more often... "probability near score L1" got me to the paper below. – cbeleites Jan 5 '12 at 8:24

1 Answer

Answer seems to be: no, because MAE doesn't lead to a proper scoring rule.

See Loss Functions for Binary Class Probability Estimation and Classification: Structure and Applications where the MAE is discussed under "Counterexamples of proper scoring rules".

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This looks interesting, thanks for sharing – Elvis Jan 5 '12 at 9:28

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