What are some of the ways to forecast demographic census with some validation and calibration techniques?
Some of the concerns:
- Census blocks vary in sizes as rural areas are a lot larger than condensed urban areas. Is there a need to account for the area size difference?
- if let's say I have census data dating back to 4 - 5 census periods, how far can i forecast it into the future?
- if some of the census zone change lightly in boundaries, how can i account for that change?
- What are the methods to validate census forecasts? for example, if i have data for existing 5 census periods, should I model the first 3 and test it on the latter two? or is there another way?
- what's the state of practice in forecasting census data, and what are some of the state of the art methods?