I've been assigned to do a cross-class project between political science and math about the behavior of voters in a democratic state. More specifically, I'm focusing on a party from a national election in 2007, where I have made a table consisting of two rows – mandates and news about that party – and one column for each election day:
Day 1 2 3 4 5 6... Mandates 11 8 11 13 12 12 News 30 46 12 33 48 42
I would like to check whether the appearence of news in the media about this party have affected the number of mandates given to the party in the daily opinion surveys. Would it be legitimate to perform a chi-square-independence test on this data or would I not be able to conclude anything? Why/why not?
To get a little more advanced, I was thinking if it is possible to evaluate if the news have affected some days particularly than others with the chi-square-independence test (yes it has to be this method). I would then calculate the change in the mandates for each day which would make my table look like this:
Day 1 2 3 4 5 6... Mandates 11 -3 3 2 -1 0 News 30 46 12 33 48 42
Then for each column, I would manually calculate the expected result. Example for column "Day 2":
The observed results are that there has been 46 news and the party has lost three mandates. We assume that the news haven't affected the number of mandates and thus they would stay equal and the change will be zero:
Day 2 Mandates -3 News 46
Day 2 Mandates 0 News 46
If I do so for every column, would I then be able to evaluate that the news has affected the number of mandates one day, but not another, mathematically? I would really like to test for this, because then I would be able to pin point some days to focus on from which I can extract articles and look upon the positiv/negative rhetorics made by the party.
Sorry for the bad tables, but I was not able to post images. Thanks in advance.