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I've got a dataset for Temperature & KwH and I'm currently performing the regression below. (further regression based on coeffs is performed within PHP)

# Some kind of List structure..
UsageDataFrame  <- data.frame(Energy, Temperatures);

# lm is used to fit linear models. It can be used to carry out regression,
# single stratum analysis of variance and analysis of covariance (although
# aov may provide a more convenient interface for these).
LinearModel     <- lm(Energy ~ 1+Temperatures+I(Temperatures^2), data = UsageDataFrame)

# coefficients
Coefficients    <- coefficients(LinearModel)


cat("--- Coefficients ---\n");

The issue comes with our data, we can't ensure there isn't random communication failures or just random errors. This can leave us with values like

Temperatures <- c(16,15,13,18,20,17,20);
Energy <- c(4,3,3,4,0,60,4)

Temperatures <- c(17,17,14,17,21,16,19);
Energy <- c(4,3,3,4,0,0,4)

Now as humans we can clearly see that the 60 for Kwh is a mistake based on the temperature, however we have over 2,000 systems each with multiple meters and each in different locations all over the country.. and with different levels of normal Energy usage.

A normal dataset would be 48 values for both Temperatures & Energy per day, per meter. In a full year its likely we could have around 0-500 bad points per meter out of 17520 points.

I've read other posts about the tawny package however I've not really seen any examples which would me to pass a data.frame and it process them through cross analysis.

I understand not much can be done, however big massive values surely could be stripped based on the temperature? And the number of times it occurs..

Since R is maths based I see no reason to move this into any other language.

Please note: I'm a Software Developer and have never used R before.

-- Edit --

Okay here's a real world example, seems this meter is a good example. You can see the Zeros are building up then a massive value is inserted. "23, 65, 22, 24" being examples of this. This happens when its in comms failure and it holds the data value and continues to add it up on the device.

(Just to say the comms failures are out of my hands nor can I change the software)

However because Zero is a valid value im wanting to remove any massive numbers against the temperatures or Zeros where its clear they are an Error.

The thought of detecting this and averaging the data back isn't a fix for this either, however it was discussed but since this meter data is every 30mins and comms failures can happen for days.

Most systems are using more Energy then this so its perhaps a bad example from a removing Zero's point of view.

Energy: http://pastebin.com/gBa8y5sM Temperatures: http://pastie.org/4371735

(Pastebin seems to have gone down for me after posting such a big file)

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It seems that you are wondering how to identify outliers in regression problems. Am I right? –  MånsT Aug 1 '12 at 10:23
Yeah seems that way, i did find this pastebin.com/wyajiB28 shortly after posting.. unsure though... it appears to work on my test dataset –  Gavin Staniforth Aug 1 '12 at 10:40
It seems to me that you need to explicitly describe the various errors that can crop up. For example, you have 60 kWh at time 6, but you also have zero at time 5. If the 60 was a more reasonable 10, is it possible that a communications error prevented communication at time 5 and that time 6 included the data for time 5 and time 6? And so on... I don't think setting the data to zero is the answer in any case. –  Wayne Aug 1 '12 at 13:51
Influence functions for regression parameters can be calculate by formula. Outliers will have large effects on regression parameters so my 1982 paper that I have mentioned here on several occasions shows how the influence function for bivariate correlation (similar to the influence function for slope can be calculated. I don't know how well this works for processing large data sets but a univariate approach that has been used is to calculate Dixon's ratio statistics for samples in groups of three. –  Michael Chernick Aug 1 '12 at 13:52
@Wayne Those are just two different examples, ive posted real world examples now –  Gavin Staniforth Aug 1 '12 at 14:15
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1 Answer

Use a robust fit, such as lmrob in the robustbase package. This particular one can automatically detect and downweight up to 50% of the data if they appear to be outlying.

To see what can be accomplished, let's simulate a nasty dataset with plenty of outliers in both the $x$ and $y$ variables:

n.points <- 17520
n.x.outliers <- 500
n.y.outliers <- 500
beta <- c(50, .3, -.05)
x <- rnorm(n.points)
y <- beta[1] + beta[2]*x + beta[3]*x^2 + rnorm(n.points, sd=0.5)
y[1:n.y.outliers] <- rnorm(n.y.outliers, sd=5) + y[1:n.y.outliers]
x[sample(1:n.points, n.x.outliers)] <- rnorm(n.x.outliers, sd=10)

Most of the $x$ values should lie between $-4$ and $4$, but there are some extreme outliers:

Raw data scatterplot

Let's compare ordinary least squares (lm) to the robust coefficients:

summary(fit<-lm(y ~ 1 + x + I(x^2)))
summary(fit.rob<-lmrob(y ~ 1 + x + I(x^2)))

lm reports fitted coefficients of $49.94$, $0.00805$, and $0.000479$, compared to the expected values of $50$, $0.3$, and $-0.05$. lmrob reports $49.97$, $0.274$, and $-0.0229$, respectively. Neither of them estimates the quadratic term accurately (because it makes a small contribution and is swamped by the noise), but lmrob comes up with a reasonable estimate of the linear term while lm doesn't even come close.

Let's take a closer look:

i <- abs(x) < 10        # Window the data from x = -10 to 10
w <- fit.rob$weights[i] # Extract the robust weights (each between 0 and 1)
plot(x[i], y[i], pch=".", cex=4, col=hsv((w + 1/4)*4/5, w/3+2/3, 0.8*(1-w/2)), 
     main="Least-squares and robust fits", xlab="x", ylab="y")

Scatterplot with fits

lmrob reports weights for the data. Here, in this zoomed-in plot, the weights are shown by color: light greens for highly downweighted values, dark maroons for values with full weights. Clearly the lm fit is poor: the $x$ outliers have too much influence. Although its quadratic term is a poor estimate, the lmrob fit nevertheless closely follows the correct curve throughout the range of the good data ($x$ between $-4$ and $4$).

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Okay so alot of big maths words. One issue which perhaps I didnt state was the graphs are drawn with Javascript, therefore if any data cleansing is happening i'd like to be able to pull out that data and store it, then run the regression on it –  Gavin Staniforth Aug 1 '12 at 15:37
Gavin, you don't need to remove any of your data. Since your purpose is the regression, just use the results of robust regression. If you're instead using this to detect outliers, then some judgment is called for: an "outlier" could be any value with a weight substantially less than $1$. But how much less? You will need to decide that yourself by studying the relationships between the weights and other information you might have about data quality. (The last R code example in this answer shows how to extract values of one array by thresholding the values in another parallel array.) –  whuber Aug 1 '12 at 15:41
The application im working on creates other graphs from the data therefore if R can work out the best dataset before hand then we trigger Regression Coeffs, Tophat Graphs etc etc on what we think is the best data. Would the process be to assign fit.rob. Ive just ran the code on the actual dataset and it returns pastebin.com/TarY7WQL pastebin.com/ByWhMXD8 Ive added a few comments some of the source I cant really think what its doing –  Gavin Staniforth Aug 1 '12 at 16:00
Take a look at the distribution of weights: fit <- lmrob(formula = y ~ 1 + x + I(x^2)); w <- fit$weights; hist(w). Most of the weights are above $0.86$ according to the summary; at some point between that and $0$ they will become quite infrequent. Select such a point, say t0, and select the data via i <- w >= t0; data.kept <- data.frame(x[i], y[i]). –  whuber Aug 1 '12 at 16:07
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