I'm working on a concept for a game that requires some statistical inference and I'm not sure how to go about it. My issue is I'm trying to come up with a way to calculate if a city (in the game) could evolve into a thriving city.
I have a bunch of rules that rate different factors of the city like health quality, distance to the coast, population growth etc and I need to boil all to these independent scales into a single probability. At the moment I'm averaging all of the numbers, but I'm sure there's a better way about it. I also need to calculate a degree of confidence.
I've tried searching for a solution in books but they all cover simplistic scenarios with only one variable.
I hope someone could point me to the right direction.
EDIT 1: Since this is a game, I'm just using a few variables to decide if a city is thriving. Also since it's a realtime problem I cannot use stat methods that are based on training sets. I do not have a math background, so this is what I've understood from my research, so please feel free to correct me if any of my assumptions are incorrect.