BIC is an acronym for Bayesian Information Criterion. BIC is one method of model comparison. See also AIC

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Sample size when fitting categorical survey data

I have a model which fits data from repeated surveys: at time $t$, a number $n_t$ respondents is asked a question and can give one of $K$ answers ($k=1, ..., K$). This is repeated $T$ times ($t = 1, ...
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Information criteria for ARIMA model: missing log-likelihood for null model

I am trying to fit an ARIMA model on the time series of exchange rate. I have tried several kinds of ARIMA specifications (MA(1), MA(1,2), ...) and I am evaluating the particular setting according to ...
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13 views

Sampling from a set of non-nested models

Consider a collection $\mathcal{M}$ of $m$ different model classes $\mathcal{M} = \{M_1,\dots,M_m\}$, where each model class has a parameter set $\Theta_i$, $i=1,\dots,m$. The model classes are not ...
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29 views

Multiple linear regression: does BIC drop (vaguely) collinear variables?

Say I have the following multiple linear regression: Y ~ X1 + X2 + X3 + X4 All X variables are independent, but X1 and X2 look kind of linearly related when ...
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10 views

How to calculate Focused Information Criterion in R for Cox proportional hazards models? [migrated]

I am utilising R to perform a multivariate Cox survival regression for a research project. As I have many possible interchangeable variables in the model, I was wondering how to apply the Focused ...
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37 views

AIC/BIC values keeps falling as I add more and more lags. How do I select the appropriate lag length?

I am trying to minimize the values of the Akaike and Bayesian Information Criteria to figure out the optimal lag structure for my ARDL error correction model. I am using Stata to run my analysis and ...
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38 views

Parameter Estimation vs Inference Error

I am having trouble reconciling (or maybe even understanding properly) the following issues: We have a dataset. We hypothesize a functional form for probability density. Then we estimate the ...
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44 views

GLMM with 2 insignificant variables has lower AIC or BIC compared to same model without those variables…?

I am having a hard time understanding what's going on in with my model selection, and why a model with two insignificant variables is getting chosen as the "best model" over a model without those two ...
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57 views

How does step function selects best linear Models which includes polynomial effects and interaction effects in R?

I try to find "best" linear models with continuous and categorical covariables with Interaction Effect by BIC. The continuous covariables should have a quadratic effect on the response variable. ...
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47 views

Automatic selection of lowest information criterion comes with warning

I am building a forecasting model (ARMA) and found the very useful code-object arma_order_select_ic(see code below). It all works, however, each calculation comes ...
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47 views

Comparing AIC or BIC for constant-only models vs ARIMA models

What if the AIC/BIC is lower (negatively speaking) with the model including just the constant with respect to other ARMA versions? I don't think because k=1 it is lower by construction.
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67 views

Applying the Bayesian Information Criterion for Stepwise Selection Algorithms on Time Series

The title sounds rather complicated for fairly simple statistics issue. I've created a factor model that tests adding additional factors by checking if the improvement in the mean squared error ...
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30 views

Excluding Outliers and Influential Observations ($R^2$ and AIC/BIC)

I am working on a cross-sectional data set relating mortgage payments to debt-income ratios. I have some extreme outliers and experimented with excluding them from the model (some 30 observations of a ...
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28 views

Selecting the right BIC value

I'm using the hddc for an assignment to find the optimal number of clusters. The dataset is 9-dimensional and consists of 200.000 rows, however, the BIC values that I'm getting are really high. How ...
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30 views

Is there a BIC or AIC formula for correcting a G-statistic?

I am using the G-test (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/G-test) for scoring models with different numbers of parameters in a model comparison problem. Is there a BIC or AIC formula to correct a ...
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127 views

Suitable metric for consistency of parametric models

When fitting a parametric model to a data set assuming that our selected model class contains the truth, what performance metric should be used so that parameters converge to the truth as sample size ...
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41 views

what are parameters in a model and how do I get them?

I recently asked a way to calculate BIC score for a given HMM (transition, emission, initial distribution). After doing some more research (basically the wiki page and this CV thread) I realized its a ...
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46 views

How to correctly choose model based on BIC?

I have a question about Bayesian Information Criteria. (GARCH models) I have looked for so many hours but still very confused about this BIC especially a negative one. As far as I am concerned it is ...
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624 views

AIC, BIC and GCV: what is best for making decision in penalized regression methods?

My general understanding is AIC deals with the trade-off between the goodness of fit of the model and the complexity of the model. $AIC =2k -2ln(L)$ $k$ = number of parameters in the model $L$ = ...
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36 views

Model without endogeneity correction has lower AIC than one with correction

I have two models, one with endogeneity correction (includes correction terms obtained using Heckman) and one without. The correction terms are significant in the second stage model, yet the AIC/BIC ...
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1answer
96 views

LCA number of parameters & degrees of freedom

I have a series of physicians' claims submissions. I would like to perform cluster analysis as an exploratory tool to find patterns in how physicians bill based on things like Revenue Codes, Procedure ...
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determing states in HMM with BIC

I'm fitting a HMM to time series, for each data set I use BIC results to select the optimum number of states. In that, the BIC number is lowest and thereby indicating this model with that number of ...
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implementing Lasso with BIC

Do you have an R code to implement Lasso with BIC? Note that there is an R package called ...
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77 views

Prerequisites for AIC/BIC model comparison

I have a question about model selection when using AIC/BIC. So, if two model structures are totally different, can I still directly apply AIC and BIC? Also, for a hierarchical model, how to compute ...
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2k views

Step function in R for regression modeling

I have to implement a regression model and I have about 30 variables in the model. Some of the variables do not have much influence on the model, but I need to use a formalized method for eliminating ...
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252 views

Difference in AIC and BIC values between sem and lavaan packages in R

I ran the same SEM model in sem and lavaan. I got the same parameters and - generally - very close test values, with the exception of AIC and BIC which were immensely different between the two ...
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946 views

Using BIC to estimate the number of k in KMEANS

I am currently trying to compute the BIC for my toy data set (ofc iris (: ). I want to reproduce the results as shown here (Fig. 5). That paper is also my source for the BIC formulas. I have 2 ...
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722 views

AIC BIC Mallows Cp Cross Validation Model Selection

If you have several linear models, say model1, model2 and model3, how would you cross-validate it to pick the best model? (In R) I'm wondering this because my AIC and BIC for each model are not ...
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226 views

Sparse parameters when computing AIC, BIC, etc

I'm designing large-scale, regularized logistic regression models with lots of sparse, binarized features. e.g. isUS, isFR, etc. As a result, a lot of the weights in the model are zero. I'm wondering ...
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367 views

Why do I get different BIC values when I use regsubsets and lm in R

I used regsubsets to find a model with lowest BIC; height is our D.V. , the code I typed is below: ...
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AIC,BIC,CIC,DIC,EIC,FIC,GIC,HIC,IIC — Can I use them interchangeably?

On p. 34 of his PRNN Brian Ripley comments that "The AIC was named by Akaike (1974) as 'An Information Criterion' although it seems commonly believed that the A stands for Akaike". Indeed, when ...
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AIC guidelines in model selection

I typically use BIC as my understanding is that it values parsimony more strongly than does AIC. However, I have decided to use a more comprehensive approach now and would like to use AIC as well. I ...
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Bayesian justification for AIC/BIC

Can someone point me to a straightforward and comprehensible Bayesian discussion justifying AIC and/or BIC? Or even better, can someone give a self-contained such discussion in this forum?
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Correct number of parameters of AR models for AIC / BIC ?

I have a time series and want to use AIC / BIC to decide which of the following model is most appropriate: A) AR(1), no constant with Gaussian innovation term B) AR(2), no constant with Gaussian ...
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81 views

How to interpret BIC

I am fitting two different models to the same data. In one model, there is one free parameter for three different experimental conditions. In another model, I fit three free parameters, one for each ...
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114 views

BIC vs. Out of sample performance

I have two statistical models. Model 1 uses a GLM approach while model 2 uses a time series approach for fitting. I want to compare these two models. Model 1 (i.e. GLM) has a better out of sample ...
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Calculate BIC to determine the optimal number of clusters (k-means clustering)

I have a set of data and want to know whether they fall in 1, 2 or 3 groups. I started exploring the question by using k-means in MATLAB. By just looking at the distance from the centroid of each ...
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284 views

Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC) for large samples

The Bayesian information criterion is defined as $BIC = -2 \text{ln}(L) + k\text{ln}(n)$, where $L$ is the maximized likelihood of the data, and where $n$ is the sample size. In case of a huge sample ...
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Computing BIC for SUR model

Consider the following m regression equation system: $$r^i = X^i \beta^i + \epsilon^i \;\;\; \text{for} \;i=1,2,3,..,T$$ where $r^i$ is a $(T\times 1)$ vector of the T observations of the dependent ...
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633 views

Negative binomial GLM, the most complex model always has lowest AIC (all interaction terms)

I apologize for all those questions on modelling. It is the very first time that I try GLM and I am really lost even after reading a lot of papers. I have divided my covariates according to their ...
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614 views

Criteria for selecting the “best” model in a Hidden Markov Model

I have a time series data set to which I am trying to fit a Hidden Markov Model (HMM) in order to estimate the number of latent states in the data. My pseudo code for doing this is the following: ...
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170 views

Bayesian model comparison: What is it about MCMC that makes RSS or BIC hard to use?

I'm trying to figure out why certain methods are used for comparing models in Bayesian statistics. DIC is often used in Bayesian model comparison. However, I'm under the impression that one could ...
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74 views

BIC and AIC(c) and group data

I would like to compare two models using the BIC and AICc. Doing so seems fairly straightforward if both models are fit to only one dataset. However, I have data from 10 participants, and there is no ...
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Number of free parameters in Gaussian mixture models

When comparing GMM models with different number of components (i.e number of Gaussians) one penalizes the likelihood for the total number of free parameters in the mixture model. If the data is in $D$ ...
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261 views

comparing AIC (or BIC or whatever) between different SETS of models

Suppose I have $m$ competing models. Suppose also that I could classify these models into $s$ sets. For example, I could classify models of migration behavior conditional on climatic conditions by the ...
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270 views

AIC vs BIC vs MDL

I am trying to learn the difference between the three approaches and their applications. a) As I understand, AIC = -LL+K BIC = -LL+(K*logN)/2 Unless I am ...
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AIC, BIC parsimony

I've set up code to give me a graphical depiction of AIC vs BIC parsimony over various degrees of polynomial models. On the rare occassion AIC does not match BIC trends, which parsimonious model ...
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Sample size in BIC

The definition of the Bayesian information criterion is usually given as $BIC = -2 \text{ln}(L) + k\text{ln}(n)$, where $ln(L)$ is the maximized log-likelihood of the data given a particular model, ...
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704 views

AIC, BIC, DIC, model selection criteria

I am trying to understand the difference between these parameters, and their application. Was hoping to get some correction/clarification to my statements. I have a training set and cross-validation ...
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2k views

K-means & BIC (to validate clusters) in R

I'm wondering if there is a good way to calculate the clustering criterion based on BIC formula, for a k-means output in R? I'm a bit confused as to how to calculate that BIC so that I can compare it ...