# Tagged Questions

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### Categorical observed, Binomial latent

This might be a trivial problem but wondering if there's a known model formulation for this problem: Ordered Categorical observed variable with k levels Trying to estimate the parameter (theta) of a ...
40 views

### Calculating the probability of 31 of 628 items are sampled (no replacement) more than 10x amongst 150 participants drawing 50 items each

I am sorry for having to ask a simple probability question, but I have been thinking about it for weeks and an extensive google search has given no answers. I have a group of 628 questions. 31 ...
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### In this simple Bayesian logistic-regression model, why isn't uncertainty about the mean increasing uncertainty about predictions?

Either my intuition is misleading me or my code is wrong. In a nutshell, I have a simple logistic-regression model, and when I look at the posterior distribution of μ, a given unit's probability of ...
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### Estimating the impact of one variable on success rate given given another variable, and update it over time with data

I have a series of observations in which one or more events result in either a success or a failure, and that each of these events is categorized according to two variables: one which is fixed ...
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### Should coin flips be modeled as Bernoulli or binomial draws in RJags?

What is the best way to model coin flips as a hierarchical model? Do you say coin draws are a series of draws from Bernoulli trials or as one draw from a binomial distribution? That is something like ...
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### Pooling asymmetric confidence intervals for proportions?

I have several measurements of proportions (values in [0, 1]) $\theta_1,...,\theta_n$, each with an (asymmetric) 95% confidence interval. The $\theta$'s are repeated measurements of the same variable ...
210 views

### Homework: Bayesian Data Analysis: Priors on both binomial parameters

The following is a problem from Bayesian Data Analysis 2nd ed, p. 97. Andrew Gelman has not included its solution in the guide on his website and it has been driving me crazy all day. Literally all ...
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### Basic Bayesian MCMC to estimate two parameters from binomial distributions given unknown number of trials

This is a very basic question about Bayesian inference. I'm not grasping one or more fundamental concepts. Let's say I have two observed outcomes, X and Y. I want to infer the probabilities (px and ...
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### Luck or skill in 3-person game

Two friends and I have been playing a game that is a combination of skill and luck. (as most games are). We assume that if the game was all luck and/or we all had the same skill level eventually the ...
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### Unconditional inference in the multinomial model

Consider a multinomial $2\times 2$ table $\begin{pmatrix} x_{11} & x_{12} \\ x_{21} & x_{22} \end{pmatrix}$ with theoretical probabilities: \begin{pmatrix} \theta_{11} & \theta_{12} \\ ...
472 views

### Hierarchical Bayesian Model (?)

Please apologize my butchering of statistical lingo :) I have found a couple of questions on here that are related to advertising and click through rates. But none of them helped me very much with my ...
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### Priors for hierarchial Bayesian binomial model

I intend to use a hierarchical binomial model which would look like the following in BUGS language : ...
Imagine two experiments: 1) A group of $n=100$ individuals are under condition $A$, and they perform some test. Among these individuals, $y=5$ individuals succeed in the test. 2) A group of ...