Causal inference tries to quantify the effect of a change in $X$ on $Y$ whilst holding constant or eliminating all other relevant factors which might influence this relationship.

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Do you need causal models when doing counterfactual predictions?

I am modeling the impact the number of a certain type of company (bottom of pyramid (BOP) companies, ie. companies that cater to the poorest consumers) have on market price. I considered the ...
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17 views

Is this mediation or a simple path?

This is my model adapted from a study. I want to know whether I can only study it as a path analysis without studying mediation effect (1 $\longrightarrow$ 5 direct effect, as well as indirect ...
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25 views

Inference from a sometimes-random time-series

Let's say we have two cointegrated time-series, $Y_{1}$ and $Y_{2}$, and I want to assess the causal impact of $Y_{1}$ on $Y_{2}$. There is good reason to think that both variables are influenced by a ...
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Choice of dependent variable: Differencing or Controlling?

I was running some analysis where I suspect that a treatment $D$, has opposite effects on two variables $Y^A$ and $Y^B$. To show that, I was thinking about two strategies: 1. Differencing Running ...
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Dropped cases from matched studies

We have cohort data and a rare exposure which we are matching to controls in a large epidemiologic dataset. The matching variable is a deidentified neighborhood indicator (cluster) which guarantees ...
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249 views

Real examples of Correlation confused with Causation

I'm looking for specific, real cases in which a causal relationship was inappropriately inferred from evidence of a correlation. Specifically, I'm interested in examples that meet the following ...
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77 views

Endogeneity & IV = model misspecification?

I'd like to raise a controversial point: if you need instrumental variables, your model is wrong. Basic endogeneity problem and the IV solution Let us suppose the basic framework of endogeneity and ...
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40 views

Difference between Research Design and Experimental Design

What is the difference between Research Design and Experimental Design? I can't see any difference. Both of them need to establish Causality. Both of them are the arrangement for collection and ...
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107 views

Computing inverse probability weights — conditional (multivariate) density estimation?

The general version: I need to estimate $f(A | X)$ where $A$ and $X$ are continuous and multivariate. I'd rather do it nonparametrically because I don't have a good functional form in mind and ...
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24 views

Average of percentages / prove causal relationship between sale dates & margin sales

I just wanted to make sure I'm right here. I have a situation where I need to prove that on days where we sell more than 10 items, our margin (sale price vs. suggested price) goes up. I'm not really ...
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58 views

Graphical and Statistical Tests for Robustness of Sharp RD

I'm doing sharp regression discontinuity design with my treatment variable $$ D_i = \begin{cases} 1 \enspace \quad \text{if $x_i \geq \overline{x}$} \\ 0 \quad \text{otherwise} \end{cases} $$ where ...
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1answer
32 views

Proving that the variance observed in time series A is due to the variance observed in time series B

I'm testing the hypothesis that the the variance observed in the number of medical consultations felt from 2009 through 2013 is due to the variance in user fees price, and not due to something else. ...
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39 views

Measurment error for two variables

I am interested in estimating the effect of security S on crime C in a given city over time (eight quarters) for twenty cities, so it's panel data. The problem is, instead of actual security spending ...
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Ranking of causal models

I remember seeing a paper that ranked causal statistical models, published by some research body, by quality in terms of generalizability or some similar facet(s). This would be a "hierarchy of ...
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293 views

Causality in microeconometrics versus granger causality in time-series econometrics

I understand the causality as used in microeconomics (in particular IV or regression discontinuity design) and also the Granger causality as used in time-series econometrics. How do I relate one with ...
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1answer
46 views

“Explaining” a time series - conceptual explanation needed

Imagine I have a time series for an animal population and a time series for a climatic variable during the same time period and at the same location. Unfortunately the data are observational (i.e., no ...
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48 views

Correlation and regression [duplicate]

Can there be negative correlation but the regression line has a positive change when there is an increase in the independent variable?
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124 views

How do instrumental variables address selection bias?

I'm wondering how an instrumental variable addresses selection bias in regression. Here's the example I'm chewing on: In Mostly Harmless Econometrics, the authors discuss and IV regression relating ...
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54 views

Examples for teaching: Sometimes we CAN infer causality.

There have been threads here before which posted links of the media attributing causality to correlational studies, and links to those studies have been posted. It seems as if we are always focusing ...
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67 views

Infer causality with high collinearity

I recently started to ask myself how to measure the impact of education on indexes like GDP: what is the outcome of mathematics or computer science on GDP, at the country level for instance. In this ...
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31 views

Under what circumstances is regression discontinuity preferred to differences in differences?

I am looking at the adoption of universal health care coverage for children age 6 and under in a country. The take-up rate was practically 100%. I want to know the impact of having coverage on ...
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27 views

Estimating the probability of causation based on finding a correlation, including experimental details

Say there is a hypothesis that A causes B (A -> B), and some likelihood that the hypothesis is correct (AB1%). Now, an experiment is run that claims to find a correlation between A and B. What I ...
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2answers
509 views

Difference-in-Differences Estimator for Logistic Regressions

I have a pre-post intervention study with four groups: 1) Pre-Intervention Control, 2) Pre-Intervention Treatment, 3) Post-Intervention Control, and 4) Post-Intervention Treatment. The outcome is a ...
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52 views

Estimating a confidence interval around the average of an interacted treatment effect

I've got a causal inference situation with heterogeneous treatment effects. In addition to simply estimating coefficients, I'd like to get an average effect of the treatment at the covariate values ...
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51 views

causal inference with correlated multivariate outcomes

I've been struggling with how to think about the causal estimate of a program on two outcomes, when one of the two outcomes affects the other outcome. It seems sort of like simultaneous equations, ...
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38 views

Guessing test question answers from scores

My teacher likes to give online quizzes that are about 20-30 questions long. Every student has the same questions in the same order. We are not told after taking the quiz which questions we got wrong, ...
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28 views

Causal Analysis

I want to do "Nutritional Causal Analysis". Basically my objective is to identify possible factors associated with acute malnutrition in children under five years of age in developing countries. What ...
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53 views

Average causal effect of one year increase in schooling vs a four-year increase in schooling

I'm not sure why in Mostly Harmless Econometrics, last paragraph of p. 55, the expectations of $f_{i}(s-4)$ is taken and the expectation of $f_{i}(s-1)$ is not. The text reads: Conditional on ...
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81 views

How to rule out double causation

I have a model where I suspect (purely on theoretical grounds) that double causation might be an issue. How can I test this hypothesis? I.e. I have something like $Y_i = \beta_0 + \beta_1 X_i + ...
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67 views

Why is the conditional mean of the reduced form error zero?

For example, we have a simultaneous equation model of supply and demand: Supply: $$s(p)=\alpha_{s}+\beta_{s}p+\epsilon_{s}$$ Demand: $$d(p)=\alpha_{d}-\beta_{d}p+\epsilon_{d}$$ Market clearing ...
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88 views

Is there a branch of statistics that tries to explain “why” the dataset has certain statistical properties?

Suppose I have a big dataset and I compute some statistical summary of it - e.g., the correlation of one dimension with another. I think a reasonable question to ask would be "what data points ...
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40 views

How to refer to variables which lie beyond causal pathway

Causal diagrams are extremely good tools for discussing research plans for multivariate modeling between statisticians and non-statisticians. It's easy after some deliberation to decide which ...
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1answer
102 views

Omitted Variable Bias, verification in Gretl

I am trying to verify the expression for Omitted Variable Bias (OVB) as given e.g. in Wooldridge: $\tilde{\beta_1} = \hat{\beta_1} + \hat{\beta_2} \cdot \tilde{\delta_1}$, where $\tilde{\delta_1}$ is ...
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107 views

Correlation or t-test?

Following experimental design was done and some data as shown in table below was obtained: pretest> intervention1> intervention2> posttest > perception survey Number of students=60 Number of ...
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Do edges in directed acyclic graph represent causality?

I am studying Probabilistic Graphical Models, a book for self-study. Do edges in a directed acyclic graph (DAG) represent causal relations? What if I want to construct a Bayesian network, but I am ...
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130 views

Graphical models for correlation of random variables and prediction of hidden observations

I am studying about Graphical Models and I came up with a simple example but I am not sure which kind of technique (HMM, DGM, MRF) would be able to help me with that. Imagine we have three balls that ...
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2answers
107 views

Does randomization really allow us to make claims of causality?

Lets say two groups are compared. Subjects are randomly assigned to each group, then a treatment is given to half while a placebo is given to the other half. All aspects of the experiment (order of ...
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1answer
92 views

Two highly correlated variables where both correlate with a third: Correlation and Causation

My question is certainly quite basic for statisticians! Let's suppose Var1 and Var2 are highly correlated with a poor $R^2$. ...
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1answer
61 views

Interpretation of lasso recovery results

When people say that lasso regression can under certain assumptions recover "the support", i.e. non-zero regression weights, what does this mean? This cannot mean causal recovery, because Pearl has ...
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286 views

Understanding d-separation theory in causal Bayesian networks

I am trying to understand the d-Separation logic in Causal Bayesian Networks. I know how the algorithm works, but I don't exactly understand why the "flow of information" works as stated in the ...
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93 views

Causality in Time Series

I am reading an article which is trying to justify the need for causal inference in their inferential framework. The thought experiment is as follows: Suppose a statistician is asked to design a ...
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26 views

Adjusting for experimentally-caused panel attrition when evaluating treatment effects

This question involves a questionable hypothetical scenario, but please bear with me. Suppose I ran an experiment in a coffee stand where the treatment was playing country music instead of the usual ...
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245 views

Difference-in-difference in panel data

Under which conditions should we expect the difference-in-difference estimate to be equal to the equivalent panel data model? Strictly speaking, whenever we have a experiment that offers a well ...
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235 views

Mathematical definition of causality

Let $Y$ and $X$ be random variables. $E(Y|X)$ is the conditional mean of $Y$ given $X$. We say $Y$ is not causally related to $X$ if $E(Y|X)$ does not depend on $X$, which implies it is equal to ...
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39 views

Use of logit simulation for impact assessment or establishing causality

My question is that for establishing causality, omitted variable bias is important in regression specification. When relevant variables are omitted, the intervention effect or variable under ...
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1answer
92 views

Weighted Wilcoxon ranksum test

I am using Stata for a survival analysis project involving inverse probability weighting (IPW). The question has arisen as to how to analyze weighted continuous data between two groups with a Wilcoxon ...
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397 views

How do difference-in-difference designs account for temporal autocorrelation

Although there are doubtless many techniques for studying the impact of a discrete intervention over time, I am interested in two which have achieved widespread adoption in the social sciences: ...
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424 views

Does regression analysis measure cause and effect?

Does regression analysis measure cause and effect? If yes, then how? If no, then what is done? Please describe with an example.
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101 views

What to do in logistic regression if you have a huge amount of variables?

I am dealing with logistic regression, trying to identify variables which have a causal relationship with a binary response. The way I usually do it is to try variables one by one and visualize the ...
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Roy model question

I am referring to G.S. Maddala: Limited Dependent and Qualitative Variables in Econometrics, pages 257-258. I add the relevant screenshots here: My question is, why is ...