1
vote
0answers
26 views

Inference from a sometimes-random time-series

Let's say we have two cointegrated time-series, $Y_{1}$ and $Y_{2}$, and I want to assess the causal impact of $Y_{1}$ on $Y_{2}$. There is good reason to think that both variables are influenced by a ...
0
votes
1answer
32 views

Proving that the variance observed in time series A is due to the variance observed in time series B

I'm testing the hypothesis that the the variance observed in the number of medical consultations felt from 2009 through 2013 is due to the variance in user fees price, and not due to something else. ...
7
votes
2answers
307 views

Causality in microeconometrics versus granger causality in time-series econometrics

I understand the causality as used in microeconomics (in particular IV or regression discontinuity design) and also the Granger causality as used in time-series econometrics. How do I relate one with ...
1
vote
1answer
47 views

“Explaining” a time series - conceptual explanation needed

Imagine I have a time series for an animal population and a time series for a climatic variable during the same time period and at the same location. Unfortunately the data are observational (i.e., no ...
2
votes
0answers
94 views

Causality in Time Series

I am reading an article which is trying to justify the need for causal inference in their inferential framework. The thought experiment is as follows: Suppose a statistician is asked to design a ...
3
votes
2answers
447 views

How do difference-in-difference designs account for temporal autocorrelation

Although there are doubtless many techniques for studying the impact of a discrete intervention over time, I am interested in two which have achieved widespread adoption in the social sciences: ...
1
vote
0answers
457 views

An alternative to “Granger Causality” test when (short) time series are not stationary?

I have two short time series (x and y), and I wish to find out if x "effects" (is correlated with) y. Obviously, since the two are time series, using a simple correlation is the wrong way to go. I ...
1
vote
1answer
905 views

Formula for one-sided Hodrick-Prescott filter

I am not very familiar with filters. The Hodrick-Prescott filter as one can find it e.g. in wikipedia is two-sided. I also found an R implementation for this in the R package mFilter. There the filter ...
1
vote
2answers
87 views

Causal stats with one event and multiple time series?

I've worked with certain causal/predictive techniques when handling two time series, but this problem is different from what I am used to and I'm not sure how to proceed. I would like to see the ...
3
votes
2answers
391 views

What test should I use to determine if a policy change had a statistically significant impact on website registrations?

A client's website was operating under a certain policy for membership sign ups for over a year. At the start of October 2012 the client implemented a new policy for sign ups that was supposed to ...
2
votes
0answers
331 views

Implication / Interpretation of long term equilibrium VECM

I want to test the influence of exchange rates on a price index and struggle with the interpretations. My variables are I(1) First, I ran an OLS on first differenced variables which indicated a ...
3
votes
3answers
572 views

Identifying the time lag between cause and effect

What approaches exist to observe the time lag between two variables? I need to analyze the relationship between blood pressure and some other factor, such as exercise. The data set I am drawing from ...
5
votes
1answer
6k views

Interpreting Granger causality test's results

I'm trying to educate myself on Granger Causality. I've read the posts on this site and several good articles online. I also came across a very helpful tool, the Bivariate Granger Causality - Free ...
1
vote
1answer
69 views

Time series with same variables but different respondents

I would like to measure the impact of an intervention using a form of time series or some related technique (like segmented regression). I would like to use the Schools and Staffing Survey, which ...