The expected value of a random variable is a weighted average of all possible values a random variable can take on, with the weights equal to the probability of taking on that value.

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52 views

Can someone provide an proof for $E[P[A|X]] = P[A]$

I'm tired of seeing the word "trivial" for this equality on every single lecture notes I could find online. Can someone please show me why this is indeed trivial? Thank you!
0
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1answer
35 views

Variance of product of two random variables

I’m trying to calculate the variance of a function of two discrete independent functions. The first function, “f(x)”, returns a value of 0 with probability 0.243, a value of 1 with probability 0.306, ...
2
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1answer
34 views

Calculating the expected value and variance of an estimator of a normal quantile

I don't quite understand how to use the estimator function and the variance function and plug in the sample mean. I expected that we would plug in the value $\bar X - 1.645s$ into $E(s)$ and $V(s)$. ...
2
votes
1answer
44 views

Proving for an AR(2) process that $E[X_t | F_{t-1}]=E[X_t | F_{t-2}]=E[X_t | F_{t-3}]$

An exercise states: Using the law of iterated expectations applied to an AR(2) process, verify that $E_{t−k} . . . E_{t−1} (X_t ) = E(X_t |F_{t−k} ) $ for $ k = 1, 2, 3 $ where $ E_{t−k} (X_t ) = ...
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0answers
27 views

Expected value non-independent random variables

Let $X$ be a set of costumers, {$x_1, ..., x_N$}, each $x_i \in X$ have a discount $p_i$ in the interval $[0,1]$, it means if $p_i$ is 0.3, $x_i$ will pay only 0.3 of the entire value. I want to know ...
0
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0answers
11 views

Estimating the loss between two Beta distributions

Suppose I have two coins, $A, B$ that each come up heads with probability $p_A, p_B$. Starting with a uniform prior on the values of $p_A, p_B$, and seeing data $s_A$ heads out of $N_A$ attempts, ...
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0answers
32 views

Expected value of a function that is not sampled uniformly

How can I calculate the expected value of a random variable $R(\Omega)$, when the samples are not i.i.d? In my specific case, I have more samples at lower values of the parameter of the function, ...
0
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17 views

Loss Elimination Ratio

The values in Table 8.2 are available for a random variable X. There is a deductible of 15,000 per loss and no policy limit. Determine the expected cost per payment using X and then assuming 50% ...
2
votes
1answer
52 views

Expected value of dot product between a random unit vector in $\mathbb{R}^n$ and another given unit vector

I am wondering what is the $\mathbb{E}[(x\cdot v)^2]$ where $x$ is a random unit vector in $\mathbb{R}^n$ and $v$ is a given unit vector in $\mathbb{R}^n$. By $(x\cdot v)$ I mean the dot product ...
3
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2answers
55 views

WLLN: can expectation exist but be infinite?

WLLN: Let $\{h_i, i = 1, \dots n\}$ be an $m \times q$ sequence of iid random variables with mean $\mu = E[h_i]$ that exists and is finite. Then $1/n \sum_{i = 1}^n h_i \rightarrow \mu$ in ...
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0answers
25 views

Is it always true that $E[E[X|Y]^2] = E[X|Y]^2$? [duplicate]

X and Y are random variables. So $E[X|Y]$ is conditioned on a random variable. Do we always have: $$E[E[X|Y]^2] = E[X|Y]^2.$$ I have the doubt because I know that $E[X|Y]$ is a random variable ...
2
votes
0answers
53 views

On $E[E[Y|X]|X]= E[Y|X]$

I am trying to simplify $E[YE[Y|X]|X]$ can I use this property: $$E[E[Y|X]|X]= E[Y|X]$$ If yes I have never seen a Proof of this property (that seems very reasonable), could I have a reference? If ...
1
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0answers
28 views

on the minimization of: $E[((Y-f(X))^2|X]$ [duplicate]

I am having troubles solving this exercise: Deduce that the random variable $f(X)$ that minimizes $E[((Y-f(X))^2|X]$ is $$f(X)= E[X|Y]. $$ I proceeded in this way: $$E[(Y-f(X) + E[Y|X] - ...
4
votes
2answers
35 views

Expectation of von Mises Fisher Distribution

The von Mises- Fisher distribution is defined as $$ \frac{\kappa^{p/2-1}}{2\pi I_{p/2-1}(\kappa)}\exp(\kappa \mu^Tx) $$ It is defined over the unit sphere i.e. $||x||_2^2=1$. My question is what is ...
0
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0answers
28 views

Expected value of a squared fraction of Y

I need to work out the following: $$ E[(\frac {Y(x+h)-Y(x)}h)^2] $$ I've already worked out the below and am supposed to use it to work out the above. $$E[(Y(x+h)-Y(x))^2]$$ I'm not able to find ...
2
votes
1answer
31 views

Chi-Squared Goodness of Fit Test Alternative? - Zero Can't Be in Denominator

I have 5 zones(categories) in which a certain percentage of total sinkholes exist. I have 5 different maps that I am testing to see which one provides me with the best fit to my expected percentages ...
3
votes
2answers
69 views

conditional expectations value

I need to calculate the following integral $$\int_{\mu+c}^{\infty} y\cdot \frac{1}{\sigma\sqrt{2\pi}}e^{(y-\mu-w)^2/2\sigma^2}dy$$ So essentially $y\sim N (\mu+w, \sigma^2)$ and im trying to ...
5
votes
1answer
134 views

$\bar{X}$ versus $\mathbb{E}(\bar{X})$?

I was not able to find this question here, so I am going to ask this: What is the difference between $\mathbb{E}(\bar{X})$ (expected value of $X$ bar) and the actual $\bar{X}$? I am very confused ...
3
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0answers
77 views

How do I solve $E\left[ E \left(X|Z \right) E\left( Y|Z \right)\right]$?

I am trying to solve $E\left[ E \left( \mathbf{X}|\mathbf{Z} \right) E \left( \mathbf{Y}|\mathbf{Z} \right) \right]$, (where $\mathbf{X}$, $\mathbf{Y}$, and $\mathbf{Z}$ are random variables) but I am ...
0
votes
1answer
224 views

Expected Value of Random Variable

I'm trying to find the expected value of a random variable $t_i$ which is the solution of $$\epsilon_i=\mu(t_i-t_{i-1})-\sum^{i-1}_{k=1}\frac{\alpha}{\beta}\left(1-e^{-\beta(t_i-t_k)}\right)$$ ...
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44 views

Obtain expected shortfall (ES) in value terms from an ES stated in log-returns

Let $r_t^{log} = \ln{\frac{Y_t}{Y_{t-1}}}$ be the log return where $Y_t$ is the portfolio value at time t. If the value at risk (VaR) is defined as minus the 0.05 quantile of the log-returns ...
2
votes
1answer
74 views

Best statistical notation for expected probability density

Assume that we have two multivariate normal distributions $\mathcal{N}_1 = \mathcal{N}(\mu_1, \Sigma_1)$ and $\mathcal{N}_2 = \mathcal{N}(\mu_2, \Sigma_2)$. We do these two steps: Pick a point, say ...
0
votes
1answer
70 views

how does the correlation of independent variables affect the correlation of parameters

Suppose $Y$,$X$ and $Z$ are correlated random variables with $N(0,1)$. We have these cross-sectional regression for each time $t$ $Y_{t} = \beta_{t}X_{t}+u_{t} $ $Y_{t} = ...
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2answers
73 views

How to 'read' (understand ) an expected value equation (example inside)

I have just come across expected values and they are giving me a bit of grief trying to understand them. e.g. for covariance the equation is $\text{E}\left((x - \bar{x})(y - \bar{y})\right)$ ...
3
votes
4answers
43 views

Conditional variance - $Var(X + U | X) = Var(U)$?

I am wondering if the following equality holds - $Var(X + U | X) = Var(U)$? where $X$ and $U$ are two independent random variables? It seems can we say $Var(X + U | X) = Var(X|X) + Var(U|X) = ...
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1answer
43 views

Monte Carlo computation of expectation when there is dirac delta

Let $Z \sim N(0,1)$ and let $Y=Z$. Suppose I wish to perform the following weird computation: $f(z)=\int f(z|y)f(y)dy=E_Y[f(z|y)]$ and then use Monte Carlo to estimate $E_Y[f(z|y)]$. The problem is ...
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92 views

$E(\frac{1}{1+x^2})$ under a Gaussian

This question is leading on from the following question. http://math.stackexchange.com/questions/360275/e1-1x2-under-a-normal-distribution Basically what is the $E\left(\frac{1}{1+x^2}\right)$ under ...
4
votes
0answers
86 views

$E[e^{cX}]$ where $c < 0$ and $X$ is lognormally distributed

I am trying to calculate the expectation $$E[e^{cX}]$$ for arbitrary $c<0$ (for $c>0$ the expectation is infinite) if $X$ is lognormally distributed, i.e. $\log(X) \sim N(\mu, \sigma)$. My idea ...
2
votes
2answers
77 views

Finding the Expected Average Distance from the Maximum given a distribution

For a given sample set $S$ with $N$ individual samples $x_i$, I can easily find the average distance from the maximum by doing something like this: ...
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23 views

Expectation of a generalization of Dirichlet distribution

For the standard Dirichlet, the expectation of $X_i$ is $\alpha_i/\alpha_0$, where $\alpha_0 = \sum_i \alpha_i$ (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dirichlet_distribution). I am considering the following ...
2
votes
1answer
59 views

Bounded expectation implied bounded conditional or vice versa?

If $\mathrm{E}\left(X\right)<\infty$ does that imply $\mathrm{E}\left(X|Y\right)<\infty$? How about vice versa? I'm thinking if we condition on an event (say $Y>2$) then if we have ...
2
votes
2answers
98 views

Probability that a sum of potential numbers is greater than some value

Say I am about to receive 5 cash prizes and I have the probability of receiving each cash prize. Let's denote a set of cash prizes with $k$. So, below is the set of cash prizes and the set of ...
0
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1answer
85 views

Drunken cockroach - Trying to meet expected value

Imagine that you have $1000 that you can split however you want. You bet in a cockroach run, but it is not the finish that's interesting. You can bet for the cockroach to go left or right, and you ...
0
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1answer
67 views

$E(X_1| \overline X ) = \overline X$, the sample mean

Let $X_1, X_2, ..., X_n$ be a random iid sample from a population with mean $\theta$. Now I am wondering about the intuition behind $E(X_1| \overline X ) = \overline X$, the sample mean. If we just ...
7
votes
1answer
75 views

Distribution of the Rayleigh quotient

For a research project I need to find the expected value of the generalized Rayleigh quotient: $$E\,[w^T A w \ / \ w^T B w].$$ Here A and B are positive definite deterministic p x p covariance ...
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26 views

How do you prove that if $ X_t \sim^{iid} (0,1) $, then $ E(X_t^{2}X_{t-j}^{2}) = E(X_t^{2})E(X_{t-j}^{2})$? [duplicate]

Suppose we have a time series $X_t$ s.t. $X_t \sim^{iid} (0,1)$. How do you prove that if $ X_t \sim^{iid} (0,1) $, then $ E(X_t^{2}X_{t-j}^{2}) = E(X_t^{2})E(X_{t-j}^{2})$? Or, I guess, if ...
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15 views

Expected agreement if random

I am looking to measure agreement between participants in choosing which member of a group is most like certain attributes. I want to calculate the expected agreement if they were to choose by chance. ...
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32 views

Non-Measure Theoretic Argument for Var(X) = 0 iff X is constant (X continuous RV)

I am studying out of DeGroot and Schervish trying to carefully understand the math of prob/stats. In ch 4.3 on variance, they state the theorem that given X a RV whose mean and var exist, then Var(X) ...
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213 views

Percentile Loss Functions

The solution to the problem: $$ \min_{m} \; E[|m-X|] $$ is well known to be the median of $X$, but what does the loss function look like for other percentiles? Ex: the 25th percentile of X is the ...
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1answer
53 views

Variance of sample mean for dependent samples

Suppose I have two discrete independant random variables $X$ and $Y$, and that I'm interested in the expected value of the random variable $W$, where: $$ W= \text{sign}(X-Y). $$ So, W is 1 if ...
5
votes
3answers
309 views

Let f(x) be some PDF, and F(x) be its CDF. Shouldn't F(x)=.5 give us the expected value of f(x)?

I was playing around in R and have gotten myself very confused about the relation between probability distributions, their expected values, and their cumulative distribution functions. Say we're ...
4
votes
0answers
116 views

How to find this integral [duplicate]

Let $X_1, \cdots, X_n$ be $iid$ normal random variables with unknown mean $\mu$ and known variance $\sigma^2$. How to find $E[\Phi(\bar X)]$, where $\bar X:=\frac{\sum_{i=1}^nX_i}{n}$, please? I guess ...
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23 views

Showing that the variance increases with the dimension of the random vector

This is actually related to a more complex question; but I want to re-ask it by trying to simplifying it as possible: 1- We have $n$ dimensional functions of the form $f_n:\mathbb{R}^{n} \mapsto ...
0
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1answer
51 views

Expectation values of functions

This question is more to do with interpretation than calculation. I have a model which predicts the probability of a detector 'firing' under a certain intensity of signal, or actually in this case ...
1
vote
1answer
27 views

Multinomial chi square with small expected values

I'm studying extinction in Austronesian languages, and am trying to find out if a subset of 384 languages is randomly selected with respect to extinction risk from a population of 1249 languages. ...
0
votes
0answers
35 views

sufficient statistic and KL-divergence: Confusion with an equation

I am reading a paper, which talks about minimising KL-divergence of any arbitrary distribution over a family of exponential distribution. So, given a distribution $p$, we want to compute its ...
4
votes
1answer
69 views

Estimating the error in the average of correlated values

tl;dr I can only generate samples of a random variable $X$ using MCMC. How can I find the error in the estimate of the expected value of $X$ based on this MCMC data? The problem I have a "black ...
3
votes
1answer
80 views

dG(y) in expected value integral

I am wondering what exactly the notation dG(y) inside an integral means, what it's called and where I can read more about it: $$E[B_1]=\int_0^{\infty}E[B_1 \vert Y_1 = y] dG(y)$$
3
votes
1answer
117 views

Why is the conditional expectation of prediction error in regression not zero?

The conditional expectation of the error in regression is: $E[Y-X\beta|X=x]$ is not equal to 0. Why is this the case? If you fix all the predictor variables, why does $E[Y]$ - $X\beta$ not equal to ...
1
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0answers
90 views

Practical meaning of expected value, standard deviation & correlation

We've got given annual results of two stock companies described with following values: Company X: expected value $\mu_X=0.05$, standard deviation $\sigma_X=0.02$ Company Y: expected value ...