0
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1answer
81 views

How to dampen forecast to improve accuracy?

According to Armstrong there is ample empirical evidence that dampening trends in uncertain and complex long term forecasting helps improve accuracy/reduce forecasting errors. What I'm not able to ...
0
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1answer
96 views

Solving for arima and exponential smoothing coefficients

I am looking to How do you solve for the optimum values with the lowest MSE for the coefficients and dampening constant in exponential smoothing and ARIMA models? What are the equation used?
1
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1answer
224 views

What is the minimum historical data/sample data required for a time series forecasting analysis?

Are there any statistical power analysis/sample size deteminations methods for time series data analysis/forecasting? For example if I have time series of 30 data points, how can I with confidence ...
2
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1answer
912 views

Which is the better method to do forecast..1-step or h-step ahead?

I am using forecast() package in R to predict future values. I have a time series data for approx 6-7 years. First, I split the data into training set and test set. Test set contained values of the ...
6
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3answers
434 views

Ensemble time series model

I need to automate time-series forecasting, and I don't know in advance the features of those series (seasonality, trend, noise, etc). My aim is not to get the best possible model for each series, ...