The science that describes the management, creation and study of money, banking, credit, investments, assets and liabilities.

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27 views

Inflation as an independent variable

Assume a model like this, basically explaining stock market returns with a bunch of stuff: ...
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2answers
44 views

Dealing with different time series data in Machine Learning

I am trying to create a stock market model based on fundamental variables for the US economy. I am using R. Some of the variables I am looking to include are: GDP, Unemployment Rate, Initial Claims, ...
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50 views

which model should I use in order to represent stock market price from theoretical perspective?

I am studying my lecture notes where I saw this: $Y_t=Y_{t-1} +u_t$ $Y_t=0.5* Y_{t-1} +u_t$ $y_t=0.8* u_{t-1}+u_t$ The first two models are AR(1) and the third one is an MA(1) model. In the ...
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14 views

High Ljung-Box p-values at large lags

I am trying fit an ARIMA model to stock returns. I have reached a decent model using the AIC criterion. However, the ljung-box p value under a diagnostic plots are pretty weird. The null ...
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46 views

Censored data prediction

I am working with the survivorship bias free database of hedge funds and trying to estimate the persistence of performance in the future performance of such funds based on the past performance. In ...
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1answer
33 views

Financial Random Walks

Does anyone know of any good and accessible papers on the random walk modelling of financial data from a statistics perspective? Most of the papers I've found have been written by economists or ...
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1answer
27 views

What is a mixing process?

What does this mean? Asset prices follow a mixture of normal distributions with a mixing process dependent on the unobservable information arrival process.
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26 views

Small Sample Size in Kernel Density Estimation

I am working on a problem where I have to solve an optimization problem over a dataset of 6 variables (~300 data points per variable). The data set is a historical data set, unfortunately it is small ...
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59 views

Panel data model for exports and exchange rates

Suppose I have 4 years worth of monthly panel data on: exports of widgets $y$ from home country to 12 different nations (in US dollars) nominal exchange rates $x$ for those 12 countries (in US ...
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28 views

Derivation of Zhou (1996) volatility estimator

Does anyone know how to derive the Variance of Bin Zhou's volatility estimator (Theorem 1) in 'High-Frequency Data and Volatility in Foreign-Exchange Rates' (1996)? PDF Link attached. Any help would ...
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56 views

Maximizing returns - A Bayesian approach

I want to design a Bayesian model for a simple asset allocation problem. Say I can buy $a_i$ amounts of $N$ assets. The return values of these assets are given by random variables $r_i$ with known ...
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1answer
99 views

Inverse CDF of normal variable

The following paragraph was an excerpt from R PerformanceAnalytics documentation on VaR. The most common estimate is a normal (or Gaussian) distribution $R\sim \mathcal{N}(\mu,\sigma)$ for the ...
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1answer
70 views

Forecasting asset returns using index models in R

How do you forecast returns and the associated risk in R using index models? How do you represent risk in multi index models as a single value in R?
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93 views

Given this time series, what statistical methods would be used for description and forecasting?

These static cumulative default rate tables and charts come from this public report published by a credit rating agency. Basically, you take all the loans originated in a period of time (a ...
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1answer
59 views

How to sum correlations, or, calculate correlation of disjointed variables

I'm trying to calculate the correlation of two variables, but the array is disjointed in the middle - but I'm trying to obtain one correlation coefficient. See the excel file I uploaded. Because ...
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23 views

Bootstrap confidence interval for a minimization problem

Based on a simulated empirical distribution of $Z$, find $\mu^*_X$, the smallest $\mu_X$ such that $P(Z > c) = p$, where $Z$ is given by $Z = \prod^5_{i=1}(aX_i + bY_i)$ where the $X_i$'s are i.i.d ...
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53 views

Estimating a VAR model with variable coefficients

I want to estimate a VAR model based on the Dufour and Engle paper "Time and the Price Impact of a Trade" (2000). There, the parameter $ b_{i} $ of the endogenous variable $ x_{i} $ is dependent on ...
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1answer
68 views

Detecting outlier cash movements

If I'm watching a series of accounts for transactions going in and transactions going out, I want to notice unusually large or transactions for any particular account on any particular day. So if ...
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143 views

Rolling quarters and four-quarters ended

I'm working on a financial project that in the past calculated its number quarterly. It would then also have a 4-quarters ended calculation as well. However, now we need to run the calculations on a ...
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3answers
345 views

Does applying ARMA-GARCH require stationarity?

I am going to use the ARMA-GARCH model for financial time series and was wondering whether the series should be stationary before applying the said model. I know to apply ARMA model the series should ...
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69 views

Raw return vs. percentage return to calculate volatility

I am using squared return as a proxy to calculate volatility, however i'm not sure whether to use raw return or percentage return. Under raw return all return estimates are below 1, however under ...
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1answer
103 views

A choice between two books

Can anyone please advise which of the following books I should read: Statistics and Data Analysis by Rupert Analysis of financial time series by Tsay. I am interested in applying the theory and ...
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1answer
109 views

Probability Questions

I've got a 2 advanced probability questions that I'm having trouble with so just asking to confirm an answer/method A computer company provides an insurance policy for one of its systems. If the ...
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2answers
212 views

Linear regression with fat-tailed errors

I'm testing a linear model that explains stock returns with some contemporaneous factors; the model is assumed to satisfy OLS assumptions except that the errors (i.e., unexplained stock returns) have ...
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19 views

Can I run a regression where dependents are coefficients from other regression and independents are R squared from these regressions?

I calculate Beta risk for multiple assets by running multiple regressions: Return = intercept + Beta*Market_Return Then I want to compare the Betas. I run other regression where Beta is dependent ...
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2answers
108 views

The correct probability distribution / way to identify large deviations in a set of daily changes to portfolio value

I am working on a report which is being sent through to end users that should flag to them any "large changes" in the day-to-day values for the past 30 days. These values are day-to-day differences ...
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1answer
861 views

Variance of annual return based on variance of monthly return

I'm trying to understand the whole variance/std error thing of a time series of financial returns, and I think I'm stuck. I have a series of monthly stock return data (let's call it $X$), which has ...
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1answer
62 views

What is a suitable probability distribution for monetary amounts?

In my Bayesian model, I have a random variable representing the amount of money received due to a user's click on an affiliate link on a website. There are several such links with different payouts; ...
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1answer
48 views

How to change financial year data into calendar year data

I have several variables, some calculated from 1 July to 30 June and the remainder calculated from 1 January to 31 December. Now how I can change one of them into financial or calendar year?
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1answer
96 views

Confused about independence and prediction power of data

What is the correct way (if there is one) to think about when authors claim that stocks have produced some percentage annual return X over every 20 year period of time? They might calculate this by ...
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82 views

Percentage change vs. first difference

I want to regress (using an OLS regression) survey results on stock returns. How do I decide whether I use the first difference or the percentage change of the survey results?
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125 views

How to correctly estimate statistical significance of regression coefficients?

Say that I want to determine the statistical difference between the coefficients derived from the FF three factor model of two portfolios (Spe and ...
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1answer
642 views

First steps learning to predict financial timeseries using machine learning

I am trying to get a grasp on how to use machine learning to predict financial timeseries 1 or more steps into the future. I have a financial timeseries with some descriptive data and I would like to ...
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0answers
61 views

How can I convert annual standard deviation to a longer period?

Quicken provides annual standard deviation of returns for a given portfolio using analysis done by the Newport Group. I'd like to convert this to a longer term number--say 10, 20, or 30 years. ...
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1answer
73 views

Performance decay when testing on bootstrap data

I have a strategy that has a Sharpe ratio of 1.6 when back tested over the past 10 years. When I run this same strategy on re-sampled data, the performance of the strategy goes down to 1.32. Should ...
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128 views

“system is exactly singular” in R function BoxCox.ar

I'm trying to perform a Box-Cox transformation on some financial data (SPY). The BoxCox.ar function (in the package TSA) gives me the following error: ...
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312 views

How helpful is a quant job in Goldman Sachs for later PhD in Machine Learning?

I am a masters in Computer Science and am interested in pursuing a career in Machine Learning, possibly academic, in the long run. I have been offered a position related to Financial Modelling at ...
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1answer
144 views

Estimate just the constant coefficient in logistic regression

How do I calculate the constant coefficient in logistic regression manually, i.e without having to use a calculator? My model is $g(Y) = X \beta + \alpha$ is it possible to calculate just the ...
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116 views

I have two sets of data (regular time intervals) is there any way to find out when they correlated the most and when they don't?

Sorry if the title is a bit vague however, i'm not sure exactly how to make my sentence concise. I have two times series: Amount invested into Iraq across time (in months) Price of a stock across ...
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52 views

Fitting series to a distribution

I am reading this note on Mean-CVAR optimization. The authors argue against the prevailing assumption that asset classes are normally distributed and propose using a truncated levy flight distribution ...
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1answer
78 views

What is the distribution that can properly describe the PE fluctuation of a stock

I have observed the historical PE (price / profit) value of a stock and realized that it roughly follows a log normal distribution. However, even when the next earning data point is easily ...
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2answers
278 views

Irregularly spaced time-series in finance/economics research

In financial econometrics research, it is very common to investigate relationships between financial time series that take the form of daily data. The variable will often be made $I(0)$ by taking the ...
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0answers
46 views

An investment and variance question for monthly payments

I have a question regarding a financial/statistical problem. How do you calculate the variance of the outcome of an investment in a stock, when the investment is so called time diversified, i.e. ...
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2answers
62 views

Book on computational data analytics and applications of data analytics

I'm looking for books / papers / articles for understanding: Computational Techniques for Large-Scale Data Analysis. This covers: mining, cluster analysis, association analytics, MapReduce, ...
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2answers
2k views

What is the difference between GARCH and ARMA

I am confused. I don't understand the difference a ARMA and a GARCH process.. to me there are the same no ? Here is the (G)ARCH process $\sigma_t^2 = \underbrace{ \underbrace{ \alpha_0 ...
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1answer
613 views

Cointegration testing with a dummy variable

I have the model: $y_t = \alpha + \beta_1 x_t + \beta_2 D_t x_t + \epsilon_t$ With $y_t$ and $x_t$ as $I(1)$ processes, and $D_t =1$ during a large financial crisis, $D_t = 0$ during non-crisis ...
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0answers
221 views

Independent t-tests and Technical Indicators: Voodoo, Axes, and Objectivity

First off, I'm not trying to crowd source a personal printing press (i.e., not doing this: "I'm using strategies x, y, z in the stock market and..."). Instead, I'm looking for feedback on research ...
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1answer
71 views

Regressing on only the positive part of a vector

I have an interesting question, with its original application in finance. Suppose I have a stock return $Y$, and a set of independent variables (other tradable assets) $X$. Typically, one hedges Y ...
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97 views

Multivariate normal - conditioning on absolute values

I’m reading a paper and really struggling with one appendix. Basically they derive conditional expectation of a multivariate normal, conditioning on absolute values. Let $$\boldsymbol y = ...
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188 views

Had statisticians predicted 2008 financial crisis?

Are there any statistical or econometric studies before 2008 that predicted 2008 financial crisis? Note that there are some publications that attemp to predict contagion between markets using copula ...