Use this tag for sports and games like video games, poker, chess, go, and others similar. Do not use it for puzzles or enigma questions (see puzzle tag).

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2
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0answers
41 views

Calculating the probability to die in a card game using Markov chains

I saw this interesting question on reddit and couldn't figure it out. Situation There is a special card in the game seen below: Once this card gets played, there are 6 options that can happen. ...
0
votes
0answers
26 views

Calculating probabilities for 3, 4, 5 card Straight/Flush/Straight Flush With 5 Card Hands

(Originally posted on poker.stackexchange.com) I am playing around with creating a new card game, similar to poker, and I am really struggling with figuring out the math behind calculating the ...
5
votes
2answers
73 views

Where do the default values in the Elo ratings formulas come from?

After doing some reading about the Elo ratings system, I am trying to implement one. I have some questions on the default values in the formulas. If player A has rating $r_a$ and player b has rating $...
3
votes
0answers
24 views

Voting system for little league all-stars: should there be more votes per voter than spots on the team?

I'm on the Board of Directors of my Little League. We typically have about 35-40 players try-out for All-Stars. Managers, coaches and players (total of about 70) all vote for who they believe are the ...
3
votes
1answer
51 views

Exactly 1 pair in 3 random cards from a poker deck

poker deck is 13 rank (2-Ace) and 4 suits for a total of 52 cards Draw 3 random cards what is the chance of exactly 1 pair (same rank)? using combination $$\frac { \binom{4}{2} \binom{13}{1} \...
7
votes
1answer
411 views

What's rollout policy in AlphaGo's paper?

The paper is here. The rollout policy ... is a linear softmax policy based on fast, incrementally computed, local pattern-based features ... I don't understand what rollout policy is, and how ...
0
votes
0answers
15 views

how to represent MLB games as time series

I have been requested to predict National league(NL) OPS (to start with) for the coming season and compare to a given team predictions to be able to evaluate a chanse of winning a certain number of ...
0
votes
1answer
28 views

Data trending decision criteria

I'm playing a game in which you can buy and sell items (it's an mmorpg). Now, after certain events, there is a huge drop in the price of certain items (there is a seasonal double experience weekend in ...
0
votes
1answer
120 views

Poker chance of straight or 8 outer straight draw on the flop from suited connectors 34 - TJ

Poker - 52 cards 4 suits of 13 (rank) cards each Poker probability Rank - ace (1) is both high and low so A23456789TJQKA Suited - Holding 2 cards of the same suit Connectors - 2 sequential (e....
2
votes
0answers
61 views

Poker make a flush with suited starting hand

Poker - 52 cards 4 suits of 13 (rank) cards each Poker probability A flush is 5 cards of the same suit The chance of a flush in 5 random cards is: $$\frac { \binom{13}{5} \binom{4}{1}} {\binom{...
2
votes
1answer
40 views

Statistical reasoning in board game [duplicate]

In each round of the board game "The Resistance" three players are randomly and secretly chosen to be spies while the rest of the players are part of the resistance. The spies are then made aware of ...
3
votes
4answers
120 views

10 cards out - chance of 2 aces out

Poker - 52 cards 4 suits of 13 cards each A deck will have 4 aces Let say 5 player - 10 cards pre flop Poker probability What is the chance exactly 2 aces are out (in the 10 cards dealt)? Is ...
4
votes
1answer
155 views

Ways to make a straight in poker

A deck is 4 suits of 13 cards each. The ace is both low and high so that is why you have 10 ways to make a straight. A flush is all cards of the same suite. There are two hands (flush and full house)...
2
votes
1answer
116 views

Statistics guessing game

This is a game that I wanted to know the answer for. The Game There are many players in the game, who each get a guess. There is a loss distribution, $L$, where: $L$ ~ Gamma($\alpha$, $\beta$) i....
6
votes
2answers
469 views

Expected value of sum of cards

If each card on a regular 52 deck card has points that corresponds to their number (like 2 of hearts is 2 points, 7 of clubs is 7 points), the Jack, Queen, King each being 10 points and you keep ...
2
votes
1answer
164 views

Poker how many ways to make 4 of a kind

In this link it say there 13 X 48 = 624 ways to make 4 of a kind from card deck Where does the 48 come from? I can get 4! = 24 but I cannot get the 48
3
votes
1answer
65 views

How can I calculate expected finishing order in a board game?

I'm tracking stats for my board game group. I'm using a modified ELO system where I consider each game of multiple players be a group of 1v1 matches between all pairs of players as seen here: http://...
0
votes
1answer
29 views

approaches to predict probability of “game result”

sorry for undetermined terms, I just never got familiar with this type of tasks. Suppose I have a dataset with M results of games between N teams (M >= N). Like t1 vs t2 = t1 won t1 vs t3 = t3 won etc....
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2answers
115 views

Game Data Mining & Machine Learning [closed]

I would like to learn how can I learn to set up a script that will learn to play a game, I'm thinking agar.io specifically. I believe to do this I basically must make the program mine the game for ...
4
votes
0answers
77 views

Count Outcomes in Three Card Poker

I'm currently trying to verify the probabilities and outcomes for three card poker. The game is essentially the same as 5 card poker, but with three cards. The game is played against the dealer. If ...
0
votes
0answers
14 views

Expected highest number from card game [duplicate]

You're given a card game as the following: With a randomly shuffled set of 52 cards, you keep turning over the first card from the remaining cards until you get an Ace Once you get an Ace, you keep ...
3
votes
1answer
76 views

guess the color of the next card

There are 26 red cards and 26 black cards on the table which are randomly shuffled and are facing down onto the table. The host turns up the cards one at a time. You can stop the game any time (even ...
1
vote
1answer
45 views

How are game difficulty levels programmed in TD gammon?

I understand that Temporal Difference player is trained by making it play against itself. In such a case, how are game difficulty levels programmed? Can fewer training iterations successfully create ...
3
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0answers
78 views

How to properly develop a machine learning model for a poker game?

I've created an annotation for poker games, similar to chess games. After compiling information from thousands of games, I want to use this large data set for machine learning. To simplify, let's ...
3
votes
0answers
129 views

Potential Meld Point Range in Pinochle

I would like to be able to figure out what the meld potential (upper/lower boundaries as well as probability for each score) is for a given hand, ideally the solution would calculated for each suit. ...
4
votes
2answers
516 views

How frequently am I going to lose this game?

I hope this question fits the site, if not feel free to flag. In the place I live there's a simple game of cards that you play on your own. Cards are 40, let's say A1 ... A10 , B1 ... B10 , C1 ... ...
5
votes
2answers
132 views

Monty Hall (goat) problem w. elementary events

I am trying to solve the Monty Hall problem with elementary events, but I just can't seem to get it right: I define four sets: Actual door ($R$) User's first selected door ($S$) Moderator pick ($T$...
1
vote
1answer
31 views

Long term probability of a game with multiple outcomes?

I'm not a stats expert so please excuse me if this is a really basic question and I've simply missed the reference... So let's say this person is playing a game with a small chance of winning, say $...
0
votes
0answers
23 views

Is there any heavy-duty analysis that has been done for optimizing Wheel of Fortune strategy?

I tried looking online for Wheel of Fortune strategy pages and got disappointing results. No mention of how your strategy should change if, say, there is one consonant left that you know will appear 3 ...
0
votes
1answer
57 views

Logistic regression is appropriate? Forecasting player’s serve point win % as a binary variable, w/ both numeric and categorical independent variables

I effectively want to model the probability of a player winning his service point (a point in which he is the server) based on the values of explanatory variables (namely court surface and opponent ...
5
votes
1answer
127 views

How to determine the strongest player in a team game

I have an idea for a "King of the Hill" contest in the Programming Puzzles and Code Golf Stack Exchange (http://codegolf.stackexchange.com/). The game I have in mind has four players divided into two ...
1
vote
0answers
41 views

Using Markov Chain Monte Carlo to compute the chances that a particular solitaire laid out with 52 cards would come out successfully

Based on some references I got from another question I learned that: While convalescing from an illness in 1946, Stan Ulam was playing solitaire. It, then, occurred to him to try to compute the ...
2
votes
2answers
102 views

Is chi-squared valid in this scenario?

I'd like to know whether I am misusing Pearson's chi-squared test. And if so, what should I be doing instead. I've a game-playing program, a "bot", for a zero-sum two-player game. To improve it, many ...
5
votes
1answer
613 views

Card Games and Neural Network Inputs

Looking for some pointers on how best to structure a neural net that deals with a card game. In Gin (rummy), you have a 10-card hand and you're trying to make melds and sets out of your cards. A meld ...
2
votes
0answers
63 views

What is the optimal betting strategy to minimize expected waiting time to reach a goal in this coin flipping betting game?

Suppose we play a game where we start with an initial amount of money $S$ and we wish to reach a larger target amount of money $T$. We a play a game in rounds as follows. There is a coin that has ...
2
votes
0answers
127 views

How do I model the probability of a win in a particular matchup, given historical win/loss data for the players

Let's say I have two numbers: the historical probability player A wins when playing a particular game (found by counting the number of times A has won, and dividing by the total number of times she ...
2
votes
1answer
92 views

Simplifying P(x|y,z) to P(x|z)

I am looking for the probability of an outcome (x in Win, y in Opponent Actions and z in Opponent Cards) in a poker scenario. I need a mathematical proof to simplify $\Pr (x \mid y, z)$ to $\Pr (x \...
1
vote
1answer
74 views

How to calculate probability that another player has a card

In a poker game, how would we calculate the probability that another player has at least one certain card? Lets say that there are five other player, there are four cards in middle of the table, and ...
0
votes
0answers
38 views

Are these independent: the sample, randomized rule, and random variable having the prior distribution on the parameter space?

In section 1.3 of Bickel and Doksum's Mathematical Statistics 2006, the risk function of a nonrandomized rule $d$ is the expectation of loss of the rule wrt the random sample. $$ R(\theta, d) := E_{X\...
6
votes
4answers
510 views

Dungeons & Dragons Attack hit probability success percentage

In D&D players roll a 20 sided die trying to beat a set number to determine if an attack hits the target. Players often can add modifiers to this roll to help the odds in reaching this target ...
4
votes
1answer
135 views

Winning Poker criteria in PLO against a player who always raises

I was considering an interesting situation. Imagine you are playing poker against someone who is always raising in a tournament game (both start with a stack of chips, and win when they have the other ...
4
votes
1answer
2k views

Training a Tic Tac Toe brain - am I on the right track?

My only experience with Machine Learning is Andrew Ng's Coursera course, but I did work through that just fine and passed with 100%. I decided to practice by making up some problems and solving them. ...
0
votes
1answer
167 views

How can I statistically formulate football player attributes similar to Football Manager games or footballdatabase.eu?

I have collected player match history statistics like runs, shoots, passes and such. I would like to come up similar attribute values (psychical, mental, technical) to Football Manager game or ...
1
vote
0answers
15 views

Optimal strategy in growing jackpot scenario

There is a betting game, which seems to have "positive sum" situations, and I'd like to find out the optimal strategy. Multiple players place bets against the bank, for and bets that fit winning ...
1
vote
0answers
54 views

Creating statistically balanced teams

Suppose that you have a tournament for a game with four players on each team. We also have a table that tells us overall statistics for each player. This table includes things like each player's # ...
3
votes
2answers
3k views

Soccer game outcome, are chances equal between win/loss/tie?

In soccer (or any discipline with similar scoring rules), is there statistically equal chance for win, loss and tie? So, there are 3 possible outcomes, but are all 3 outcomes equally possible? This ...