Use this tag for sports and games like video games, poker, chess, go, and others similar. Do not use it for puzzles or enigma questions (see puzzle tag).

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5
votes
2answers
60 views

Where do the default values in the Elo ratings formulas come from?

After doing some reading about the Elo ratings system, I am trying to implement one. I have some questions on the default values in the formulas. If player A has rating $r_a$ and player b has rating ...
3
votes
0answers
20 views

Voting system for little league all-stars: should there be more votes per voter than spots on the team?

I'm on the Board of Directors of my Little League. We typically have about 35-40 players try-out for All-Stars. Managers, coaches and players (total of about 70) all vote for who they believe are the ...
7
votes
1answer
243 views

What's rollout policy in AlphaGo's paper?

The paper is here. The rollout policy ... is a linear softmax policy based on fast, incrementally computed, local pattern-based features ... I don't understand what rollout policy is, and how ...
0
votes
0answers
10 views

how to represent MLB games as time series

I have been requested to predict National league(NL) OPS (to start with) for the coming season and compare to a given team predictions to be able to evaluate a chanse of winning a certain number of ...
0
votes
1answer
26 views

Data trending decision criteria

I'm playing a game in which you can buy and sell items (it's an mmorpg). Now, after certain events, there is a huge drop in the price of certain items (there is a seasonal double experience weekend in ...
0
votes
1answer
96 views

Poker chance of straight or 8 outer straight draw on the flop from suited connectors 34 - TJ

Poker - 52 cards 4 suits of 13 (rank) cards each Poker probability Rank - ace (1) is both high and low so A23456789TJQKA Suited - Holding 2 cards of the same suit Connectors - 2 sequential ...
2
votes
0answers
59 views

Poker make a flush with suited starting hand

Poker - 52 cards 4 suits of 13 (rank) cards each Poker probability A flush is 5 cards of the same suit The chance of a flush in 5 random cards is: $$\frac { \binom{13}{5} \binom{4}{1}} ...
2
votes
1answer
36 views

Statistical reasoning in board game [duplicate]

In each round of the board game "The Resistance" three players are randomly and secretly chosen to be spies while the rest of the players are part of the resistance. The spies are then made aware of ...
3
votes
4answers
118 views

10 cards out - chance of 2 aces out

Poker - 52 cards 4 suits of 13 cards each A deck will have 4 aces Let say 5 player - 10 cards pre flop Poker probability What is the chance exactly 2 aces are out (in the 10 cards dealt)? Is ...
4
votes
1answer
146 views

Ways to make a straight in poker

A deck is 4 suits of 13 cards each. The ace is both low and high so that is why you have 10 ways to make a straight. A flush is all cards of the same suite. There are two hands (flush and full ...
2
votes
1answer
112 views

Statistics guessing game

This is a game that I wanted to know the answer for. The Game There are many players in the game, who each get a guess. There is a loss distribution, $L$, where: $L$ ~ Gamma($\alpha$, $\beta$) ...
6
votes
2answers
390 views

Expected value of sum of cards

If each card on a regular 52 deck card has points that corresponds to their number (like 2 of hearts is 2 points, 7 of clubs is 7 points), the Jack, Queen, King each being 10 points and you keep ...
3
votes
1answer
61 views

How can I calculate expected finishing order in a board game?

I'm tracking stats for my board game group. I'm using a modified ELO system where I consider each game of multiple players be a group of 1v1 matches between all pairs of players as seen here: ...
0
votes
1answer
24 views

approaches to predict probability of “game result”

sorry for undetermined terms, I just never got familiar with this type of tasks. Suppose I have a dataset with M results of games between N teams (M >= N). Like t1 vs t2 = t1 won t1 vs t3 = t3 won ...
0
votes
2answers
87 views

Game Data Mining & Machine Learning [closed]

I would like to learn how can I learn to set up a script that will learn to play a game, I'm thinking agar.io specifically. I believe to do this I basically must make the program mine the game for ...
3
votes
1answer
69 views

guess the color of the next card

There are 26 red cards and 26 black cards on the table which are randomly shuffled and are facing down onto the table. The host turns up the cards one at a time. You can stop the game any time (even ...
1
vote
1answer
41 views

How are game difficulty levels programmed in TD gammon?

I understand that Temporal Difference player is trained by making it play against itself. In such a case, how are game difficulty levels programmed? Can fewer training iterations successfully create ...
3
votes
0answers
116 views

Potential Meld Point Range in Pinochle

I would like to be able to figure out what the meld potential (upper/lower boundaries as well as probability for each score) is for a given hand, ideally the solution would calculated for each suit. ...
4
votes
2answers
511 views

How frequently am I going to lose this game?

I hope this question fits the site, if not feel free to flag. In the place I live there's a simple game of cards that you play on your own. Cards are 40, let's say A1 ... A10 , B1 ... B10 , C1 ... ...
5
votes
2answers
129 views

Monty Hall (goat) problem w. elementary events

I am trying to solve the Monty Hall problem with elementary events, but I just can't seem to get it right: I define four sets: Actual door ($R$) User's first selected door ($S$) Moderator pick ...
1
vote
1answer
29 views

Long term probability of a game with multiple outcomes?

I'm not a stats expert so please excuse me if this is a really basic question and I've simply missed the reference... So let's say this person is playing a game with a small chance of winning, say ...
0
votes
0answers
22 views

Is there any heavy-duty analysis that has been done for optimizing Wheel of Fortune strategy?

I tried looking online for Wheel of Fortune strategy pages and got disappointing results. No mention of how your strategy should change if, say, there is one consonant left that you know will appear 3 ...
0
votes
1answer
55 views

Logistic regression is appropriate? Forecasting player’s serve point win % as a binary variable, w/ both numeric and categorical independent variables

I effectively want to model the probability of a player winning his service point (a point in which he is the server) based on the values of explanatory variables (namely court surface and opponent ...
5
votes
1answer
126 views

How to determine the strongest player in a team game

I have an idea for a "King of the Hill" contest in the Programming Puzzles and Code Golf Stack Exchange (http://codegolf.stackexchange.com/). The game I have in mind has four players divided into two ...
1
vote
0answers
39 views

Using Markov Chain Monte Carlo to compute the chances that a particular solitaire laid out with 52 cards would come out successfully

Based on some references I got from another question I learned that: While convalescing from an illness in 1946, Stan Ulam was playing solitaire. It, then, occurred to him to try to compute the ...
2
votes
2answers
101 views

Is chi-squared valid in this scenario?

I'd like to know whether I am misusing Pearson's chi-squared test. And if so, what should I be doing instead. I've a game-playing program, a "bot", for a zero-sum two-player game. To improve it, many ...
5
votes
1answer
381 views

Card Games and Neural Network Inputs

Looking for some pointers on how best to structure a neural net that deals with a card game. In Gin (rummy), you have a 10-card hand and you're trying to make melds and sets out of your cards. A meld ...
2
votes
0answers
60 views

What is the optimal betting strategy to minimize expected waiting time to reach a goal in this coin flipping betting game?

Suppose we play a game where we start with an initial amount of money $S$ and we wish to reach a larger target amount of money $T$. We a play a game in rounds as follows. There is a coin that has ...
2
votes
0answers
91 views

How do I model the probability of a win in a particular matchup, given historical win/loss data for the players

Let's say I have two numbers: the historical probability player A wins when playing a particular game (found by counting the number of times A has won, and dividing by the total number of times she ...
0
votes
0answers
37 views

Are these independent: the sample, randomized rule, and random variable having the prior distribution on the parameter space?

In section 1.3 of Bickel and Doksum's Mathematical Statistics 2006, the risk function of a nonrandomized rule $d$ is the expectation of loss of the rule wrt the random sample. $$ R(\theta, d) := ...
6
votes
4answers
452 views

Dungeons & Dragons Attack hit probability success percentage

In D&D players roll a 20 sided die trying to beat a set number to determine if an attack hits the target. Players often can add modifiers to this roll to help the odds in reaching this target ...
4
votes
1answer
2k views

Training a Tic Tac Toe brain - am I on the right track?

My only experience with Machine Learning is Andrew Ng's Coursera course, but I did work through that just fine and passed with 100%. I decided to practice by making up some problems and solving them. ...
0
votes
1answer
147 views

How can I statistically formulate football player attributes similar to Football Manager games or footballdatabase.eu?

I have collected player match history statistics like runs, shoots, passes and such. I would like to come up similar attribute values (psychical, mental, technical) to Football Manager game or ...
1
vote
0answers
15 views

Optimal strategy in growing jackpot scenario

There is a betting game, which seems to have "positive sum" situations, and I'd like to find out the optimal strategy. Multiple players place bets against the bank, for and bets that fit winning ...
1
vote
0answers
50 views

Creating statistically balanced teams

Suppose that you have a tournament for a game with four players on each team. We also have a table that tells us overall statistics for each player. This table includes things like each player's # ...
3
votes
2answers
3k views

Soccer game outcome, are chances equal between win/loss/tie?

In soccer (or any discipline with similar scoring rules), is there statistically equal chance for win, loss and tie? So, there are 3 possible outcomes, but are all 3 outcomes equally possible? This ...
2
votes
0answers
579 views

Statistics of 7 game playoff series

Background: a friend of mine makes a hobby (as I imagine many do) of trying to predict hockey playoff outcomes. He tries to guess the winning team in each matchup, and the number of games needed to ...
1
vote
0answers
70 views

Computing probabilities of letters in a word grid

I'm sure most people are familiar with word grid games like Boggle and the newer digital versions Scramble with Friends and Ruzzle. For anyone not familiar, the idea is to find words by using ...
1
vote
1answer
72 views

Random Card Selection Algorithm Comparison

I'm working on a programming puzzle/challenge for fun, and had a question about whether or not two approaches for doing random selection are equivalent. Lets say I have a class ...
3
votes
1answer
30 views

Seeding problem for a 3-way bracket

I apologize in advance if this is not the correct place for this question. I'm going to be running a 36-person tournament in a certain activity, with the first two rounds being 3-way competitions ...
1
vote
0answers
18 views

Probability spread over number of days with finite wins

I am trying to figure out how to get odds based on a few factors and running into a few problems since I am a developer that is terrible at statistics/probability. My problem seems to be much like how ...
2
votes
1answer
60 views

car racing game win factors

I play a car racing video game on my tablet computer and I have collected data from 224 races. In the game, two cars are matched up head-to-head and race over a quarter-mile. I would like to ...
3
votes
0answers
180 views

Changepoint Analysis in R for Time Series Data

I'm new to R and statistics in general. My background is in Software Development, and I've tasked myself to solve a problem in a 3rd party application. This application is a Game, and I'd like to ...
17
votes
5answers
11k views

Probability of drawing a given word from a bag of letters in Scrabble

Suppose you had a bag with $n$ tiles, each with a letter on it. There are $n_A$ tiles with letter 'A', $n_B$ with 'B', and so on, and $n_*$ 'wildcard' tiles (we have $n = n_A + n_B + \ldots + n_Z + ...
8
votes
3answers
829 views

Modelling for soccer scores

In Dixon, Coles (1997), they have used the maximum likelihood estimation for the two modified independent Poisson models in (4.3) to model the scores in soccer. I am trying to use R in order to ...
1
vote
0answers
59 views

Caveats with logistic regression for an expected utility computation?

Suppose we are modeling the probability of heads on a biased coin. We use observable features, for example, its shape and color. We train a logistic regression classifier on a bunch of known coins ...
0
votes
1answer
50 views

Multiple probabilities to single

This is a pretty simple question. If I win 7 dollars with a probability of 0.33, and 3 dollars with a probability of 0.35, can I substitue this multiscenario event to a single event of winning ...
11
votes
4answers
1k views

Expected number I will be on after drawing cards until I get an ace, 2, 3, and so forth

I am having some trouble solving the following. You draw cards from a standard 52-card deck without replacement until you get an ace. You draw from what is remaining until you get a 2. You continue ...
6
votes
1answer
219 views

Validating correctness of ranking algorithm

Stats noob here working on an algorithm for ranking players in a tournament. I have a test set of players, each with a "skill" value. My algorithm simulates a "tournament", in which players play ...
7
votes
2answers
654 views

Winning probability in a game with multiple players

I do not come from a mathematical background, and hope you can answer this (probably very basic?) question. I got a game group with friends where we play board games, normally 3-6 players each night. ...