Use this tag for sports and games like video game, poker, chess, and other of same genera. Do not use it for puzzles or enigma questions (see puzzle tag).

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1answer
36 views

Logistic regression is appropriate? Forecasting player’s serve point win % as a binary variable, w/ both numeric and categorical independent variables

I effectively want to model the probability of a player winning his service point (a point in which he is the server) based on the values of explanatory variables (namely court surface and opponent ...
3
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1answer
87 views

How to determine the strongest player in a team game

I have an idea for a "King of the Hill" contest in the Programming Puzzles and Code Golf Stack Exchange (http://codegolf.stackexchange.com/). The game I have in mind has four players divided into two ...
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0answers
29 views

Using Markov Chain Monte Carlo to compute the chances that a particular solitaire laid out with 52 cards would come out successfully

Based on some references I got from another question I learned that: While convalescing from an illness in 1946, Stan Ulam was playing solitaire. It, then, occurred to him to try to compute the ...
2
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2answers
87 views

Is chi-squared valid in this scenario?

I'd like to know whether I am misusing Pearson's chi-squared test. And if so, what should I be doing instead. I've a game-playing program, a "bot", for a zero-sum two-player game. To improve it, many ...
2
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0answers
32 views

What is the optimal betting strategy to minimize expected waiting time to reach a goal in this coin flipping betting game?

Suppose we play a game where we start with an initial amount of money $S$ and we wish to reach a larger target amount of money $T$. We a play a game in rounds as follows. There is a coin that has ...
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0answers
58 views

How do I model the probability of a win in a particular matchup, given historical win/loss data for the players

Let's say I have two numbers: the historical probability player A wins when playing a particular game (found by counting the number of times A has won, and dividing by the total number of times she ...
0
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0answers
97 views

Chance game algorithm - winning strategy?

I was thinking of a game and its winning strategy for the past week. Say, there is a provably fair machine that spits out numbers from 1 to 10000. As the machine cannot produce true random values, ...
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0answers
31 views

Are these independent: the sample, randomized rule, and random variable having the prior distribution on the parameter space?

In section 1.3 of Bickel and Doksum's Mathematical Statistics 2006, the risk function of a nonrandomized rule $d$ is the expectation of loss of the rule wrt the random sample. $$ R(\theta, d) := ...
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0answers
25 views

game scoring marginal probability estimation

I have a game scoring time series data, where X[i] shows the score of player 1 minus player 2 after the ith turn. The game is played in turns, meaning if player 1 plays at ith turn, player 2 plays at ...
6
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4answers
279 views

Dungeons & Dragons Attack hit probability success percentage

In D&D players roll a 20 sided die trying to beat a set number to determine if an attack hits the target. Players often can add modifiers to this roll to help the odds in reaching this target ...
3
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1answer
684 views

Training a Tic Tac Toe brain - am I on the right track?

My only experience with Machine Learning is Andrew Ng's Coursera course, but I did work through that just fine and passed with 100%. I decided to practice by making up some problems and solving them. ...
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1answer
92 views

How can I statistically formulate football player attributes similar to Football Manager games or footballdatabase.eu?

I have collected player match history statistics like runs, shoots, passes and such. I would like to come up similar attribute values (psychical, mental, technical) to Football Manager game or ...
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0answers
12 views

Optimal strategy in growing jackpot scenario

There is a betting game, which seems to have "positive sum" situations, and I'd like to find out the optimal strategy. Multiple players place bets against the bank, for and bets that fit winning ...
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0answers
42 views

Creating statistically balanced teams

Suppose that you have a tournament for a game with four players on each team. We also have a table that tells us overall statistics for each player. This table includes things like each player's # ...
2
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2answers
1k views

Soccer game outcome, are chances equal between win/loss/tie?

In soccer (or any discipline with similar scoring rules), is there statistically equal chance for win, loss and tie? So, there are 3 possible outcomes, but are all 3 outcomes equally possible? This ...
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0answers
235 views

Statistics of 7 game playoff series

Background: a friend of mine makes a hobby (as I imagine many do) of trying to predict hockey playoff outcomes. He tries to guess the winning team in each matchup, and the number of games needed to ...
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0answers
49 views

Computing probabilities of letters in a word grid

I'm sure most people are familiar with word grid games like Boggle and the newer digital versions Scramble with Friends and Ruzzle. For anyone not familiar, the idea is to find words by using ...
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1answer
58 views

Random Card Selection Algorithm Comparison

I'm working on a programming puzzle/challenge for fun, and had a question about whether or not two approaches for doing random selection are equivalent. Lets say I have a class ...
3
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1answer
28 views

Seeding problem for a 3-way bracket

I apologize in advance if this is not the correct place for this question. I'm going to be running a 36-person tournament in a certain activity, with the first two rounds being 3-way competitions ...
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0answers
16 views

Probability spread over number of days with finite wins

I am trying to figure out how to get odds based on a few factors and running into a few problems since I am a developer that is terrible at statistics/probability. My problem seems to be much like how ...
2
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1answer
53 views

car racing game win factors

I play a car racing video game on my tablet computer and I have collected data from 224 races. In the game, two cars are matched up head-to-head and race over a quarter-mile. I would like to ...
3
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0answers
144 views

Changepoint Analysis in R for Time Series Data

I'm new to R and statistics in general. My background is in Software Development, and I've tasked myself to solve a problem in a 3rd party application. This application is a Game, and I'd like to ...
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5answers
9k views

Probability of drawing a given word from a bag of letters in Scrabble

Suppose you had a bag with $n$ tiles, each with a letter on it. There are $n_A$ tiles with letter 'A', $n_B$ with 'B', and so on, and $n_*$ 'wildcard' tiles (we have $n = n_A + n_B + \ldots + n_Z + ...
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2answers
633 views

Modelling for soccer scores

In Dixon, Coles (1997), they have used the maximum likelihood estimation for the two modified independent Poisson models in (4.3) to model the scores in soccer. I am trying to use R in order to ...
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0answers
47 views

Caveats with logistic regression for an expected utility computation?

Suppose we are modeling the probability of heads on a biased coin. We use observable features, for example, its shape and color. We train a logistic regression classifier on a bunch of known coins ...
0
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1answer
49 views

Multiple probabilities to single

This is a pretty simple question. If I win 7 dollars with a probability of 0.33, and 3 dollars with a probability of 0.35, can I substitue this multiscenario event to a single event of winning ...
6
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1answer
161 views

Validating correctness of ranking algorithm

Stats noob here working on an algorithm for ranking players in a tournament. I have a test set of players, each with a "skill" value. My algorithm simulates a "tournament", in which players play ...
5
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2answers
423 views

Winning probability in a game with multiple players

I do not come from a mathematical background, and hope you can answer this (probably very basic?) question. I got a game group with friends where we play board games, normally 3-6 players each night. ...
2
votes
1answer
157 views

Two games with collected statistics, how accurate is the data?

Suppose one wants to test how many players still play the day after receiving the game, and two days after receiving it. And that the results would be: Game 1: Total numbers of players = 120 ...
2
votes
1answer
447 views

How to interpret the capped binomial deviance as rating model fit in two player games?

In two player games using rating algorithms like Glicko, the capped binomial deviance is being regarded as a measure of the model data fit. Does anyone know how to interpret this measure? What ...
0
votes
1answer
37 views

Pareto Optimal - improving for one player, static for another

This is very basic - Something is pareto optimal if you can't improve the outcome for one player without worsening the outcome for another. But what about where one player gets the same but the ...
2
votes
1answer
83 views

Predicting team performance

Are there any Machine Learning/ Datamining research paper which deals with predicting the performance of two team containing each $x$ players?
5
votes
1answer
191 views

How to predict match outcome in team game based on participating players

I have a typical scenario and wanted to know how to approach the problem to solve it. Let say the data set contains $N$ records and each record contains $10$ names and an output variable. The first ...
9
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3answers
451 views

How can I predict the odds that a dodgeball team is going to win based on the winning history of its players?

Imagine there are 80 dodgeball players in the world. Each of them has played thousands of dodgeball games with the other 79 players in more-or-less random order. This is a world without teams (e.g., ...
1
vote
1answer
63 views

How do I optimize this scenario to achieve the lowest score?

Here is the scenario: I am iteratively seeking a goal state by selecting from one of a set of sets of options. The set of sets defines the possible routes to the goal state, and each inner set ...
10
votes
1answer
592 views

If a tennis match was a single large set, how many games would give the same accuracy?

Tennis has a peculiar three tier scoring system, and I wonder if this has any statistical benefit, from the point of view of a match as an experiment to determine the better player. For those ...
0
votes
2answers
858 views

Wigan scores after 30 minutes. Calculate home, away and draw in percentage terms with poisson regression

I have the following exercise: Wigan v city 90 mins match: Wigan scores after 30 minutes. Calculate home, away and draw in percentage terms with poisson regression, assuming pre-match odds ...
0
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0answers
114 views

Comparing two different leagues of similar but not equal distributions around a standard deviation of error of a prediction from a rating system

This query ties a lot of my interests in rating sports teams together, because as I’ve mentioned before I do a version of the Kenneth Massey method (as per his 1997 thesis ...
1
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0answers
164 views

Trying to test the Significance of the Seattle Seahawks Home Field Advantage

Basically I have an interest in sports and as part of that do a Microsoft Excel based version of Kenneth Massey 1997 thesis (http://masseyratings.com/theory/massey97.pdf) method of ranking sports ...
1
vote
1answer
335 views

Framework for reinforcement learning for games [closed]

[I hope this is the correct place to post - if not, please feel free to migrate the question to another site]. I would like to build a computer program that will play games effectively, and I want to ...
5
votes
1answer
154 views

What test should be used for detecting team imbalances in a game?

I'm playing the iPhone/Steam game Hero Academy. It's a bit like Chess, except there's some randomness, and at the beginning of a game players choose what team they'll use, each with different ...
4
votes
1answer
97 views

Comparing tournament results to chance

Basically what I want to achieve is to take loads of data from a certain game's tournaments and compare it to chance, i.e., I want to see whether a "coin flipping tournament" would have similar ...
2
votes
1answer
341 views

Attempting to define linear weights for Goals scored in the English Premiership

I'm very keen on sports and am just starting to understand how I can start to apply maths to sports related problems and issues. I'm keen to get some pointers in the right direction for the linear ...
10
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3answers
974 views

How to find out if an online poker-site is fair?

Last week I had an interesting discussion with a good friend of mine. He had been playing some online poker and suggested that there is a relationship between new subscription/additional money ...
32
votes
4answers
2k views

Good games for learning statistical thinking?

Are there any games that get the player "think like a statistician"? For example, lightbot gets you to "think like a programmer" (in a very basic way). Are there any games - designed for ...
2
votes
1answer
951 views

Standard deviation of game results about predictions from a rating system

I'm very in to Sports analysis and am keen to look at finessing my analysis models that I have worked up (I don't have a great maths background, I've just done a little bit of reading). Standard ...
2
votes
0answers
122 views

Do variations of ELO system exist for non-mirror games?

The ELO rating system and later improvements like Glicko are specifically designed, as far as I know, for mirror games. That is, we assume that no player has a systematic advantage over another. In ...
3
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1answer
219 views

Bracket Theory and Probability

So I apologize ahead of time if this isn't the correct venue for this question. I've been having a debate with a friend of mine for a few days now about what the best way to run a bracket is for a ...
13
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4answers
181 views

Are experts harmful?

I'm reading "The Role of Chess in Artificial Intelligence Research" (pdf) and interestingly, it says: Experience [...] suggests that inputs from chess experts, while generally useful, cannot be ...
5
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1answer
182 views

Ways to determine if experience or recent practice time is more significant in ranking?

First a little background: I'm a college paintball coach and I have two populations of players: I. Players that have a lot of experience/skill prior to joining the team e.g. playing for amateur non ...