Use this tag for sports and games like video game, poker, chess, and other of same genera. Do not use it for puzzles or enigma questions (see puzzle tag).

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10 views

Probability spread over number of days with finite wins

I am trying to figure out how to get odds based on a few factors and running into a few problems since I am a developer that is terrible at statistics/probability. My problem seems to be much like how ...
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0answers
14 views

The use of Elo for multi-game matches

In the popular computer game "Dota 2", professional teams play matches against one another. Sometimes these matches are best of one, sometimes they are best of two, sometimes best of three, etc, etc. ...
2
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1answer
35 views

car racing game win factors

I play a car racing video game on my tablet computer and I have collected data from 224 races. In the game, two cars are matched up head-to-head and race over a quarter-mile. I would like to ...
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0answers
51 views

Changepoint Analysis in R for Time Series Data

I'm new to R and statistics in general. My background is in Software Development, and I've tasked myself to solve a problem in a 3rd party application. This application is a Game, and I'd like to ...
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4answers
6k views

Probability of drawing a given word from a bag of letters in Scrabble

Suppose you had a bag with $n$ tiles, each with a letter on it. There are $n_A$ tiles with letter 'A', $n_B$ with 'B', and so on, and $n_*$ 'wildcard' tiles (we have $n = n_A + n_B + \ldots + n_Z + ...
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2answers
237 views

Modelling for soccer scores

In Dixon, Coles (1997), they have used the maximum likelihood estimation for the two modified independent Poisson models in (4.3) to model the scores in soccer. I am trying to use R in order to ...
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0answers
33 views

Caveats with logistic regression for an expected utility computation?

Suppose we are modeling the probability of heads on a biased coin. We use observable features, for example, its shape and color. We train a logistic regression classifier on a bunch of known coins ...
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1answer
45 views

Multiple probabilities to single

This is a pretty simple question. If I win 7 dollars with a probability of 0.33, and 3 dollars with a probability of 0.35, can I substitue this multiscenario event to a single event of winning ...
4
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1answer
90 views

Validating correctness of ranking algorithm

Stats noob here working on an algorithm for ranking players in a tournament. I have a test set of players, each with a "skill" value. My algorithm simulates a "tournament", in which players play ...
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2answers
174 views

Winning probability in a game with multiple players

I do not come from a mathematical background, and hope you can answer this (probably very basic?) question. I got a game group with friends where we play board games, normally 3-6 players each night. ...
2
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1answer
89 views

Two games with collected statistics, how accurate is the data?

Suppose one wants to test how many players still play the day after receiving the game, and two days after receiving it. And that the results would be: Game 1: Total numbers of players = 120 ...
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1answer
145 views

How to interpret the capped binomial deviance as rating model fit in two player games?

In two player games using rating algorithms like Glicko, the capped binomial deviance is being regarded as a measure of the model data fit. Does anyone know how to interpret this measure? What ...
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1answer
33 views

Pareto Optimal - improving for one player, static for another

This is very basic - Something is pareto optimal if you can't improve the outcome for one player without worsening the outcome for another. But what about where one player gets the same but the ...
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1answer
65 views

Predicting team performance

Are there any Machine Learning/ Datamining research paper which deals with predicting the performance of two team containing each $x$ players?
4
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1answer
146 views

How to predict match outcome in team game based on participating players

I have a typical scenario and wanted to know how to approach the problem to solve it. Let say the data set contains $N$ records and each record contains $10$ names and an output variable. The first ...
7
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2answers
294 views

How can I predict the odds that a dodgeball team is going to win based on the winning history of its players?

Imagine there are 80 dodgeball players in the world. Each of them has played thousands of dodgeball games with the other 79 players in more-or-less random order. This is a world without teams (e.g., ...
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1answer
56 views

How do I optimize this scenario to achieve the lowest score?

Here is the scenario: I am iteratively seeking a goal state by selecting from one of a set of sets of options. The set of sets defines the possible routes to the goal state, and each inner set ...
9
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1answer
336 views

If a tennis match was a single large set, how many games would give the same accuracy?

Tennis has a peculiar three tier scoring system, and I wonder if this has any statistical benefit, from the point of view of a match as an experiment to determine the better player. For those ...
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2answers
525 views

Wigan scores after 30 minutes. Calculate home, away and draw in percentage terms with poisson regression

I have the following exercise: Wigan v city 90 mins match: Wigan scores after 30 minutes. Calculate home, away and draw in percentage terms with poisson regression, assuming pre-match odds ...
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0answers
82 views

Comparing two different leagues of similar but not equal distributions around a standard deviation of error of a prediction from a rating system

This query ties a lot of my interests in rating sports teams together, because as I’ve mentioned before I do a version of the Kenneth Massey method (as per his 1997 thesis ...
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0answers
108 views

Trying to test the Significance of the Seattle Seahawks Home Field Advantage

Basically I have an interest in sports and as part of that do a Microsoft Excel based version of Kenneth Massey 1997 thesis (http://masseyratings.com/theory/massey97.pdf) method of ranking sports ...
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vote
1answer
193 views

Framework for reinforcement learning for games [closed]

[I hope this is the correct place to post - if not, please feel free to migrate the question to another site]. I would like to build a computer program that will play games effectively, and I want to ...
5
votes
1answer
133 views

What test should be used for detecting team imbalances in a game?

I'm playing the iPhone/Steam game Hero Academy. It's a bit like Chess, except there's some randomness, and at the beginning of a game players choose what team they'll use, each with different ...
4
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1answer
87 views

Comparing tournament results to chance

Basically what I want to achieve is to take loads of data from a certain game's tournaments and compare it to chance, i.e., I want to see whether a "coin flipping tournament" would have similar ...
2
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1answer
245 views

Attempting to define linear weights for Goals scored in the English Premiership

I'm very keen on sports and am just starting to understand how I can start to apply maths to sports related problems and issues. I'm keen to get some pointers in the right direction for the linear ...
10
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3answers
619 views

How to find out if an online poker-site is fair?

Last week I had an interesting discussion with a good friend of mine. He had been playing some online poker and suggested that there is a relationship between new subscription/additional money ...
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4answers
1k views

Good games for learning statistical thinking?

Are there any games that get the player "think like a statistician"? For example, lightbot gets you to "think like a programmer" (in a very basic way). Are there any games - designed for ...
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1answer
513 views

Standard deviation of game results about predictions from a rating system

I'm very in to Sports analysis and am keen to look at finessing my analysis models that I have worked up (I don't have a great maths background, I've just done a little bit of reading). Standard ...
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0answers
91 views

Do variations of ELO system exist for non-mirror games?

The ELO rating system and later improvements like Glicko are specifically designed, as far as I know, for mirror games. That is, we assume that no player has a systematic advantage over another. In ...
3
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1answer
148 views

Bracket Theory and Probability

So I apologize ahead of time if this isn't the correct venue for this question. I've been having a debate with a friend of mine for a few days now about what the best way to run a bracket is for a ...
13
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4answers
170 views

Are experts harmful?

I'm reading "The Role of Chess in Artificial Intelligence Research" (pdf) and interestingly, it says: Experience [...] suggests that inputs from chess experts, while generally useful, cannot be ...
4
votes
1answer
152 views

Ways to determine if experience or recent practice time is more significant in ranking?

First a little background: I'm a college paintball coach and I have two populations of players: I. Players that have a lot of experience/skill prior to joining the team e.g. playing for amateur non ...
5
votes
3answers
556 views

Probability of winning a tournament

Edited Question: As I promised I've edited this question. The previous version was written with the intention of simplifying the real question, but it ended in losing the real significance. Now I'm ...
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1answer
135 views

Odds that the jack of trump dealt 46% of time in pitch

In the game of Pitch what are the odds of the jack of trump being dealt in the 24 cards?
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0answers
53 views

Adjusting performance by opponent skill level in a simple contest

I've struggled with this question for several months and found this website, which is amazing. Imagine a hypothetical league composed of players competing in a simple contest where the object of each ...
3
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1answer
340 views

Looking for correct distribution for modelling foosball scoring

I'm trying to adapt something like this association football prediction approach to 2v2 foosball games at our office. For football, they basically have an offense score and a defense score for each ...
12
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3answers
507 views

Measuring individual player effectiveness in 2-player per team sports

I've got a spreadsheet of some team scores. First team to 10 points wins. There are 2 players on each team. The players play with different teammates all the time, although they are not chosen ...
2
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1answer
88 views

Average number of cards of a particular suit in a hand

I am creating a card game AI for an iPhone game and I'm stumped trying to come up with this statistic. The deck has 4 suits. The cards are numbered 1-14 in each suit and there is one Joker. So, the ...
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1answer
257 views

Odds for high in the card game pitch

In the card game Pitch how do I calculate when my opponents have 12 cards out of 52 if they have the Ace, King or Queen of a suit? I assume there is only about a 22% chance of the Ace being in their ...
4
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3answers
886 views

How should we convert sports results data to perform a valid logistical regression?

Say we want to perform a logistical regression analysis (although my question pertains to regressions in general) on sports results to determine the effects of various factors on who wins and who ...
3
votes
1answer
114 views

Calculating the value of attributes of cards in a card game

I hope this is a stats question :) There's a game (RftG) with cards, each of which has various attributes (generally bonuses of some kind) and a price. I'm wondering if there's some kind of technique ...
4
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2answers
572 views

What's the probability that a bookmaker is mispricing odds on soccer games?

An English soccer team plays a series of matches against different opponents, of varying ability. A bookmaker offers odds for each match as to whether it will be a home win, away win, or draw. ...
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3answers
3k views

Odds of rolling doubles or triples given N 6-sided dice

Over the holidays I played a dice game where each player had 3 to 7 d6 to roll each turn. The game gave certain advantages to doubles and triples. I wanted to know the odds of rolling doubles or ...
20
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4answers
1k views

Probability of not drawing a word from a bag of letters in Scrabble

Suppose you had a bag with $n$ tiles, each with a letter on it. There are $n_A$ tiles with letter 'A', $n_B$ with 'B', and so on, and $n_*$ 'wildcard' tiles (we have $n = n_A + n_B + \ldots + n_Z + ...
3
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0answers
147 views

A matching problem for 3 decks of cards [closed]

a recent posting on math.stackexchange reminds me of a somewhat less ambitious$^1$ question i have been meaning to ask. suppose 3 people each have a deck of $M$ cards numbered from 1 to $M$, in ...
3
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2answers
1k views

Probability of Game Outcomes (with ties!)

Let's say I'm playing 10 "games". For each game, I know the probability of winning, the probability of tying, and the probability of losing. From these values, I can calculate the probability of ...
4
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3answers
1k views

Two answers to the dartboard problem

General question: Given a dartboard of unit radius, what's the probability that a dart randomly lands within a circle of radius 1/3 centered inside the dartboard? Standard answer: The dart is thrown ...
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1answer
271 views

What is the expected number of runs of same color in a standard deck of cards?

Standard deck has 52 cards, 26 Red and 26 Black. A run is a maximum contiguous block of cards, which has the same color. Eg. (R,B,R,B,...,R,B) has 52 runs. (R,R,R,...,R,B,B,B,...,B) has 2 runs. ...
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1answer
856 views

The “Risk” game dice problem

This definitely sounds like a homework, but I assure you that it's not. You're probably familiar with the Risk game. Now, friend of mine rolled 3 aces in one hand. I reckon that probability of such ...
5
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1answer
305 views

How could I predict the results of a simple card game?

I want to predict the results of a simple card game, to judge on average, how long a game will last. My 'simple' game is; Cards are dealt from a randomised deck to n players (typically 2-4) Each ...