Use this tag for sports and games like video game, poker, chess, and other of same genera. Do not use it for puzzles or enigma questions (see puzzle tag).

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6
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4answers
194 views

Dungeons & Dragons Attack hit probability success percentage

In D&D players roll a 20 sided die trying to beat a set number to determine if an attack hits the target. Players often can add modifiers to this roll to help the odds in reaching this target ...
3
votes
1answer
113 views

Training a Tic Tac Toe brain - am I on the right track?

My only experience with Machine Learning is Andrew Ng's Coursera course, but I did work through that just fine and passed with 100%. I decided to practice by making up some problems and solving them. ...
1
vote
0answers
10 views

Optimal strategy in growing jackpot scenario

There is a betting game, which seems to have "positive sum" situations, and I'd like to find out the optimal strategy. Multiple players place bets against the bank, for and bets that fit winning ...
1
vote
0answers
28 views

Creating statistically balanced teams

Suppose that you have a tournament for a game with four players on each team. We also have a table that tells us overall statistics for each player. This table includes things like each player's # ...
2
votes
2answers
262 views

Soccer game outcome, are chances equal between win/loss/tie?

In soccer (or any discipline with similar scoring rules), is there statistically equal chance for win, loss and tie? So, there are 3 possible outcomes, but are all 3 outcomes equally possible? This ...
1
vote
0answers
50 views

Statistics of 7 game playoff series

Background: a friend of mine makes a hobby (as I imagine many do) of trying to predict hockey playoff outcomes. He tries to guess the winning team in each matchup, and the number of games needed to ...
1
vote
0answers
26 views

Computing probabilities of letters in a word grid

I'm sure most people are familiar with word grid games like Boggle and the newer digital versions Scramble with Friends and Ruzzle. For anyone not familiar, the idea is to find words by using ...
0
votes
0answers
47 views

neural net reinforcement learning board game, how to achieve higher competence?

I'm trying to write an algo for playing some board games using Q/SARSA combined with neural net as valuation approximation. It works to some extent, but I can't make it to expert level. So for ...
1
vote
1answer
35 views

Random Card Selection Algorithm Comparison

I'm working on a programming puzzle/challenge for fun, and had a question about whether or not two approaches for doing random selection are equivalent. Lets say I have a class ...
3
votes
1answer
26 views

Seeding problem for a 3-way bracket

I apologize in advance if this is not the correct place for this question. I'm going to be running a 36-person tournament in a certain activity, with the first two rounds being 3-way competitions ...
1
vote
0answers
13 views

Probability spread over number of days with finite wins

I am trying to figure out how to get odds based on a few factors and running into a few problems since I am a developer that is terrible at statistics/probability. My problem seems to be much like how ...
0
votes
0answers
38 views

The use of Elo for multi-game matches

In the popular computer game "Dota 2", professional teams play matches against one another. Sometimes these matches are best of one, sometimes they are best of two, sometimes best of three, etc, etc. ...
2
votes
1answer
47 views

car racing game win factors

I play a car racing video game on my tablet computer and I have collected data from 224 races. In the game, two cars are matched up head-to-head and race over a quarter-mile. I would like to ...
3
votes
0answers
91 views

Changepoint Analysis in R for Time Series Data

I'm new to R and statistics in general. My background is in Software Development, and I've tasked myself to solve a problem in a 3rd party application. This application is a Game, and I'd like to ...
15
votes
4answers
7k views

Probability of drawing a given word from a bag of letters in Scrabble

Suppose you had a bag with $n$ tiles, each with a letter on it. There are $n_A$ tiles with letter 'A', $n_B$ with 'B', and so on, and $n_*$ 'wildcard' tiles (we have $n = n_A + n_B + \ldots + n_Z + ...
6
votes
2answers
370 views

Modelling for soccer scores

In Dixon, Coles (1997), they have used the maximum likelihood estimation for the two modified independent Poisson models in (4.3) to model the scores in soccer. I am trying to use R in order to ...
1
vote
0answers
34 views

Caveats with logistic regression for an expected utility computation?

Suppose we are modeling the probability of heads on a biased coin. We use observable features, for example, its shape and color. We train a logistic regression classifier on a bunch of known coins ...
0
votes
1answer
46 views

Multiple probabilities to single

This is a pretty simple question. If I win 7 dollars with a probability of 0.33, and 3 dollars with a probability of 0.35, can I substitue this multiscenario event to a single event of winning ...
5
votes
1answer
118 views

Validating correctness of ranking algorithm

Stats noob here working on an algorithm for ranking players in a tournament. I have a test set of players, each with a "skill" value. My algorithm simulates a "tournament", in which players play ...
5
votes
2answers
257 views

Winning probability in a game with multiple players

I do not come from a mathematical background, and hope you can answer this (probably very basic?) question. I got a game group with friends where we play board games, normally 3-6 players each night. ...
2
votes
1answer
115 views

Two games with collected statistics, how accurate is the data?

Suppose one wants to test how many players still play the day after receiving the game, and two days after receiving it. And that the results would be: Game 1: Total numbers of players = 120 ...
1
vote
1answer
237 views

How to interpret the capped binomial deviance as rating model fit in two player games?

In two player games using rating algorithms like Glicko, the capped binomial deviance is being regarded as a measure of the model data fit. Does anyone know how to interpret this measure? What ...
0
votes
1answer
35 views

Pareto Optimal - improving for one player, static for another

This is very basic - Something is pareto optimal if you can't improve the outcome for one player without worsening the outcome for another. But what about where one player gets the same but the ...
2
votes
1answer
70 views

Predicting team performance

Are there any Machine Learning/ Datamining research paper which deals with predicting the performance of two team containing each $x$ players?
4
votes
1answer
155 views

How to predict match outcome in team game based on participating players

I have a typical scenario and wanted to know how to approach the problem to solve it. Let say the data set contains $N$ records and each record contains $10$ names and an output variable. The first ...
9
votes
3answers
350 views

How can I predict the odds that a dodgeball team is going to win based on the winning history of its players?

Imagine there are 80 dodgeball players in the world. Each of them has played thousands of dodgeball games with the other 79 players in more-or-less random order. This is a world without teams (e.g., ...
1
vote
1answer
59 views

How do I optimize this scenario to achieve the lowest score?

Here is the scenario: I am iteratively seeking a goal state by selecting from one of a set of sets of options. The set of sets defines the possible routes to the goal state, and each inner set ...
10
votes
1answer
373 views

If a tennis match was a single large set, how many games would give the same accuracy?

Tennis has a peculiar three tier scoring system, and I wonder if this has any statistical benefit, from the point of view of a match as an experiment to determine the better player. For those ...
0
votes
2answers
655 views

Wigan scores after 30 minutes. Calculate home, away and draw in percentage terms with poisson regression

I have the following exercise: Wigan v city 90 mins match: Wigan scores after 30 minutes. Calculate home, away and draw in percentage terms with poisson regression, assuming pre-match odds ...
0
votes
0answers
92 views

Comparing two different leagues of similar but not equal distributions around a standard deviation of error of a prediction from a rating system

This query ties a lot of my interests in rating sports teams together, because as I’ve mentioned before I do a version of the Kenneth Massey method (as per his 1997 thesis ...
1
vote
0answers
125 views

Trying to test the Significance of the Seattle Seahawks Home Field Advantage

Basically I have an interest in sports and as part of that do a Microsoft Excel based version of Kenneth Massey 1997 thesis (http://masseyratings.com/theory/massey97.pdf) method of ranking sports ...
1
vote
1answer
242 views

Framework for reinforcement learning for games [closed]

[I hope this is the correct place to post - if not, please feel free to migrate the question to another site]. I would like to build a computer program that will play games effectively, and I want to ...
5
votes
1answer
140 views

What test should be used for detecting team imbalances in a game?

I'm playing the iPhone/Steam game Hero Academy. It's a bit like Chess, except there's some randomness, and at the beginning of a game players choose what team they'll use, each with different ...
4
votes
1answer
94 views

Comparing tournament results to chance

Basically what I want to achieve is to take loads of data from a certain game's tournaments and compare it to chance, i.e., I want to see whether a "coin flipping tournament" would have similar ...
2
votes
1answer
271 views

Attempting to define linear weights for Goals scored in the English Premiership

I'm very keen on sports and am just starting to understand how I can start to apply maths to sports related problems and issues. I'm keen to get some pointers in the right direction for the linear ...
10
votes
3answers
732 views

How to find out if an online poker-site is fair?

Last week I had an interesting discussion with a good friend of mine. He had been playing some online poker and suggested that there is a relationship between new subscription/additional money ...
30
votes
4answers
2k views

Good games for learning statistical thinking?

Are there any games that get the player "think like a statistician"? For example, lightbot gets you to "think like a programmer" (in a very basic way). Are there any games - designed for ...
1
vote
1answer
814 views

Standard deviation of game results about predictions from a rating system

I'm very in to Sports analysis and am keen to look at finessing my analysis models that I have worked up (I don't have a great maths background, I've just done a little bit of reading). Standard ...
2
votes
0answers
108 views

Do variations of ELO system exist for non-mirror games?

The ELO rating system and later improvements like Glicko are specifically designed, as far as I know, for mirror games. That is, we assume that no player has a systematic advantage over another. In ...
3
votes
1answer
165 views

Bracket Theory and Probability

So I apologize ahead of time if this isn't the correct venue for this question. I've been having a debate with a friend of mine for a few days now about what the best way to run a bracket is for a ...
13
votes
4answers
176 views

Are experts harmful?

I'm reading "The Role of Chess in Artificial Intelligence Research" (pdf) and interestingly, it says: Experience [...] suggests that inputs from chess experts, while generally useful, cannot be ...
5
votes
1answer
162 views

Ways to determine if experience or recent practice time is more significant in ranking?

First a little background: I'm a college paintball coach and I have two populations of players: I. Players that have a lot of experience/skill prior to joining the team e.g. playing for amateur non ...
5
votes
3answers
598 views

Probability of winning a tournament

Edited Question: As I promised I've edited this question. The previous version was written with the intention of simplifying the real question, but it ended in losing the real significance. Now I'm ...
0
votes
1answer
136 views

Odds that the jack of trump dealt 46% of time in pitch

In the game of Pitch what are the odds of the jack of trump being dealt in the 24 cards?
1
vote
0answers
53 views

Adjusting performance by opponent skill level in a simple contest

I've struggled with this question for several months and found this website, which is amazing. Imagine a hypothetical league composed of players competing in a simple contest where the object of each ...
3
votes
1answer
357 views

Looking for correct distribution for modelling foosball scoring

I'm trying to adapt something like this association football prediction approach to 2v2 foosball games at our office. For football, they basically have an offense score and a defense score for each ...
13
votes
3answers
591 views

Measuring individual player effectiveness in 2-player per team sports

I've got a spreadsheet of some team scores. First team to 10 points wins. There are 2 players on each team. The players play with different teammates all the time, although they are not chosen ...
2
votes
1answer
88 views

Average number of cards of a particular suit in a hand

I am creating a card game AI for an iPhone game and I'm stumped trying to come up with this statistic. The deck has 4 suits. The cards are numbered 1-14 in each suit and there is one Joker. So, the ...
1
vote
1answer
282 views

Odds for high in the card game pitch

In the card game Pitch how do I calculate when my opponents have 12 cards out of 52 if they have the Ace, King or Queen of a suit? I assume there is only about a 22% chance of the Ace being in their ...
4
votes
3answers
1k views

How should we convert sports results data to perform a valid logistical regression?

Say we want to perform a logistical regression analysis (although my question pertains to regressions in general) on sports results to determine the effects of various factors on who wins and who ...