Questions tagged [games]
Use this tag for sports and games like video games, poker, chess, go, and others similar. Do not use it for puzzles or enigma questions (see puzzle tag).
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Calculating NBA shooting consistency
What would be the proper way to evaluate/determine an NBA player's 3-point shooting consistency? For instance, I have a player that shoots 37% from 3-point range and takes 200 attempts all year.
I ...
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Good games for learning statistical thinking?
Are there any games that get the player "think like a statistician"?
For example, lightbot gets you to "think like a programmer" (in a very basic way). Are there any games - ...
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Distribution for Paired Elo Matches Drawn from Normal Distribution
Is there a nice way (closed form) to represent the distribution of $Z$ that results from taking two independent normal draws $X_1, X_2 \sim N(0,1)$ and determining the outcome using $Y \sim U(0,1)$ ...
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Red and Green Ball Games
Suppose we have a bag which has 1 red ball and N green balls. We randomly draw a ball from the bag: if this is red, we do not put it back and take one green ball from the bag and discard it too; if ...
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Assess team win rate by combining individual win rates?
Suppose I have 5 players on each team in a game where each player selects a character (League of legends, Valorant, etc.).
I am considering the overall win rates of the characters, and the unique win ...
CommunityBot
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Gambling in multiple rounds with a maximum permitted bankroll and favorable or unfavourable probabilities
This is based on a deleted question, with the premises clarified to my understanding.
You are gambling in a casino with particular rules:
Bets are paid off at even amounts, so if you win a round you ...
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How do bookmakers update their odds in real-time?
I wasn't satisfied with the answers on this question, so I'm asking again: how do bookmakers adjust their implied probabilities as bets arrive sequentially?
Suppose there are four things to bet on, ...
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Linear mixed model - interpreting the interaction of random effects
I have performed a linear mixed model with the aim to determine the variability in a sports metric called Champion Data Rank across seasons and matches. My analysis was performed in SAS with player ...
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Modelling Races
The question that I wish to ask is what is an appropriate likelihood model to use for races.
For example, suppose that we have 4 competitors in a 100m race. We observe the competitors weight and age ...
CommunityBot
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Test to prove Poker deals are not random
Note: I am fully aware about confirmation bias. People suspected "rigged" dealing in any game that has random elements.
I played on a mobile app of Texas holdem poker called pokerrrr 2. I ...
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How to shuffle and deal with constraints?
I'm playing a 4-player game of cards. My opponents are called A, B and C. At the beginning of the game, each player has been dealt a hand of cards out of a deck containing 4 suits of cards: Black, Red,...
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Does 10 heads in a row increase the chance of the next toss being a tail?
I assume the following is true: assuming a fair coin, getting 10 heads in a row whilst tossing a coin does not increase the chance of the next coin toss being a tail, no matter what amount of ...
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Probability of 5 card texas holdem poker royal flush
How would I calculate the probability of getting a royal flush with 2 player Texas holdem poker.
A single randomly shuffled 52 card deck, 2 players (p1 & p2) are sequentially dealt 4 cards i.e. p1 ...
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Forecasting based on revenue and advertisement
How to forecast revenue based on previous revenue and advertisement budget?
This is how the data looks like, see full data on google sheet or even better on Colab notebook.
EDIT:
With my limited ...
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Positive expected value for lottery
As far as I know, to decide either you should enter a bet or not, you should get the expected value of that bet
I was wondering if the lottery has a very high expected value, is it wise to join?
There ...
CommunityBot
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Winning probability in a game with multiple players
I do not come from a mathematical background, and hope you can answer this (probably very basic?) question.
I got a game group with friends where we play board games, normally 3-6 players each night. ...
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The "Risk" game dice problem
This definitely sounds like a homework, but I assure you that it's not. You're probably familiar with the Risk game. Now, friend of mine rolled 3 aces in one hand. I reckon that probability of such ...
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What are the statistical fallacies of illusion of control?
Illusion of control* appears in gambling and events involving randomness. For example, choosing a lottery ticket which has an additional information that participant has a control of choosing, such as ...
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Is it reasonable to use Chi Square data in a bivariate analysis?
I am currently working on a report about the frequency of hand types in Texas Hold'em and whether or not the frequencies change when there are multiple players involved. For example, is there a change ...
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Getting a Many to One LSTM/MLP to overfit
I have a dataset of 20 thousand horses. For each horse, I have its 10 last historical races (finishing time, position, track name, distance etc. for 41 features) and am trying to predict its finishing ...
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Probability of rolling any number 10 times at any given point in the sequence [duplicate]
Imagine a race, where each runner has a number, the race track is 100 meters, and each time you roll a fair 6-sided die, the corresponding runner moves 10 meters. I would like to calculate the ...
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Poker Equity Calulator
I am writing a tool that calculates the chance of winning a poker hand.
Without going into the rules each player has 2 hole cards and there are 5 shared cards on the board. From 2 cards in the ...
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"Last Out" Raffle Probabilities/Stats
I'm part of an online community that raffles away prizes, typically with 30 or 40 spots in a raffle. The numbered chips/balls are placed into some type of hopper, and pulled out one at a time (random/...
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In games (e.g. poker) where luck/chance is a factor, should the more skilled player play more games with a lower stake?
I'm not sure if this is the right site for my question. In games (e.g. poker) where luck/chance is a factor, should the more skilled player play more games with a lower stake? Intuitively, yes, if you ...
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Alternatives to percentage change?
You can have the same mean but different standard deviation. Or the same standard deviation but a different coefficient of variation or 1 over signal-to-noise ratio or whatever. (I think that's the ...
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Significance test for trend in time series with multiple sets of observations
Tomorrow there will be a race in which six runners participate in the 100 m dash. I will be able to capture the speed of each runner at each meter, so for each runner there will be a time series with ...
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Drawing the correct card from a deck
Saw this on an old western show.
A poker player believes the dealer is switching decks of cards.
The player has 5 cards in his hand and at the end of a hand, he smudges all of them with cigar ashes. ...
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Bayesian estimation for a ranking outcome variable
I'm interested in modeling how a ranking depends on a continuous feature. I have many related groups of these rankings, so I want to use partial pooling with the usual Bayesian machinery, but I'm ...
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How to calculate the increased likelihood of drawing a type of item from a supply of mixed item types after adding more of a specific items type?
There is a board game, The Castles of Burgundy, which has a supply of 40 "black market" tiles, of which 16 are beige, 8 green, 2 gray, 6 blue, 6 yellow, and 2 burgundy.
The game takes place ...
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Significance of outliers with multiple weighted coins
tl;dr: I have N weighted coins, each of which has been flipped some number of times (n_i), and for which I've measured the ...
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Where do the default values in the Elo ratings formulas come from?
After doing some reading about the Elo ratings system, I am trying to implement one. I have some questions on the default values in the formulas.
If player A has rating $r_a$ and player b has rating $...
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Fundamental theorem of card counting: exchangeability and conditional distributions
I have some elementary queries about the relationship between exchangeability and conditional distributions.
For theorem 11.6.4 in the Doctrine of Chances, Ethier S. (2010) it is proved that $\{Z_n\}_{...
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How do payouts for bets change as the odds change?
Say that there's a horse race between the two horses Alice and Bob. People bet on which horse will win. The "house" is taking no money off the top, so basically it's a direct transfer where ...
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Players take turns to draw cards until the winner gets the first King, does it help to go first?
This question arose in a true Argentine card game called truco. Sometimes we need to choose who will play because we are too much people, so we deal cards and the first to get the king, out of 4 ...
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Who first described a statistical estimate as an approximation of a population parameter?
At some point in the history of statistics, there surely was a transition from thinking of statistical measures strictly as imperfect approximations of real quantities, to thinking of them as ...
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What is the expected number of runs of same color in a standard deck of cards?
Standard deck has 52 cards, 26 Red and 26 Black. A run is a maximum contiguous block of cards, which has the same color.
Eg.
(R,B,R,B,...,R,B) has 52 runs.
(R,R,R,...,R,B,B,B,...,B) has 2 runs.
...
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Probability of a team scoring a goal?
I am trying to work out the probability of teams scoring a goal in a football match. Obviously there are many factors to consider, and the probability is impossible to predict correctly as there are ...
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Comparing the means of two groups with different sizes
I am doing an statistical study over ultra-marathon runners (100 km distance) where I have a large number of data points (race records) corresponding to the average race speed of different runners ...
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A multidimensional ELO rating with rock paper scissors playing styles: how to estimate
Consider the following latent variable model for a potential Elo rating with additional player type.
Each player has a performance level $r$ and a playing type $\theta$. Assume that a game between two ...
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Probablity of winning a Jumping game
I am playing a game at the moment. I won't mention it but the aim is to make around 150 perfect jumps in a row to get through a level.
You can "practice" It lets you play through the level ...
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Discount factor for self play in reinforcement learning
Imagine we have a two player game with some sort of sparse reward (few actions are rewarded over the course of a game). My understanding is that ordinarily, the reward administered to actions would ...
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Given a set of random variables, how can I find a linear combination of these variables satisfying a constraint on the sum of their permuations?
Say I have n random variables, {X0...Xn}, n>9. I also have another set of random variables constructed from the first set, where each of these are the sum of 9 ...
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Rejecting hypothesis after performing a logistic regression
I was analyzing a dataset that consists of 20000 chess matches. My hypothesis was that when ratings of players increase, the probability for white to win also increases. I was thinking of performing a ...
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Probability of getting the exact same letters in Scrabble 2 turns in a row?
I would guess that the odds are astronomical that when you play 7 letters (as I did with LAUHTER added to the G on the board to play the bingo: LAUGHTER) and then get 7 new letters that are exactly ...
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Ranking based on lower confidence interval
I have a database of bridge scores from a local bridge club that effectively contains for this question, three fields: name, date...
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How many rounds to visit every place on a Monopoly style game board
I see some kids playing on a circular gameboard trying to visit every field and I wonder how long it will take before they finish.
I can simulate it like below, but is there possibly an elegant ...
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Can I use polling techniques in card games?
In a 50 card deck where 4 copies of a card are allowed at maximum,there are around 2 million possible starting hands.
My question is: If I take a random sample of the 300-350 and analyze it. Can I ...
Tim♦
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Min number of players in multiplayer game
Suppose in a multiplayer game, we have a match being played for which we need X players, when the number of players is less than ...
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Can you do hypothesis testing when instead of a 'sample' size you have 'actual' size? Alternatively, how would you use statistics to compare means?
From chess se: What is white's increased advantage in chess90 as compared to chess870? (Chess960 can be split into 2 subsets, chess90 and chess870)
Intro:
It is known in standard chess that white has ...
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What are the chances rolling 6, 6-sided dice that there will be a 6?
More generally, what is the probability that n n-sided dice will turn up at least one side with the highest number ("n")?
My crude thinking is that each side has 1/6 probability, so that 6 ...
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