The games tag has no wiki summary.
3
votes
1answer
110 views
How can I predict the odds that a dodgeball team is going to win based on the winning history of its players?
Imagine there are 80 dodgeball players in the world. Each of them has played thousands of dodgeball games with the other 79 players in more-or-less random order. This is a world without teams (e.g., ...
2
votes
1answer
70 views
How to predict match outcome in team game based on participating players
I have a typical scenario and wanted to know how to approach the problem to solve it.
Let say the data set contains $N$ records and each record contains $10$ names and an output variable. The first ...
0
votes
1answer
57 views
How do I calculate the probabilities in this decision making scenario?
I have the following problem: A decision has to be made. Paradoxically, there is value in only being marginally correct in making this decision, say I want to be correct 60 percent of the time. That ...
2
votes
1answer
255 views
Looking for correct distribution for modelling foosball scoring
I'm, trying to adapt something like http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Statistical_association_football_predictions to 2v2 foosball games at our office.
For football, they basically have an offense score ...
0
votes
1answer
24 views
Pareto Optimal - improving for one player, static for another
This is very basic -
Something is pareto optimal if you can't improve the outcome for one player without worsening the outcome for another.
But what about where one player gets the same but the ...
2
votes
1answer
46 views
Predicting team performance
Are there any Machine Learning/ Datamining research paper which deals with predicting the performance of two team containing each $x$ players?
9
votes
1answer
236 views
If a tennis match was a single large set, how many games would give the same accuracy?
Tennis has a peculiar three tier scoring system, and I wonder if this has any statistical benefit, from the point of view of a match as an experiment to determine the better player.
For those ...
1
vote
1answer
36 views
How do I optimize this scenario to achieve the lowest score?
Here is the scenario:
I am iteratively seeking a goal state by selecting from one of a set of sets of options. The set of sets defines the possible routes to the goal state, and each inner set ...
0
votes
2answers
248 views
Wigan scores after 30 minutes. Calculate home, away and draw in percentage terms with poisson regression
I have the following exercise:
Wigan v city 90 mins match:
Wigan scores after 30 minutes.
Calculate home, away and draw in percentage terms with poisson
regression, assuming pre-match odds ...
3
votes
3answers
220 views
How to compute the distribution of sums when rolling 'N' dice with 'M' faces?
I stumbled upon the following problem:
Given 'n' dice with 'm' faces with values 1 to m and a number 'x' what is the probability that the sum of the numbers on the 'm' dice is greater than or equal ...
0
votes
0answers
44 views
Comparing two different leagues of similar but not equal distributions around a standard deviation of error of a prediction from a rating system
This query ties a lot of my interests in rating sports teams together, because as I’ve mentioned before I do a version of the Kenneth Massey method (as per his 1997 thesis ...
1
vote
0answers
61 views
Trying to test the Significance of the Seattle Seahawks Home Field Advantage
Basically I have an interest in sports and as part of that do a Microsoft Excel based version of Kenneth Massey 1997 thesis (http://masseyratings.com/theory/massey97.pdf) method of ranking sports ...
2
votes
0answers
14 views
Maximizing choice
There are N number of people and X amount of objects with different values. Each person will choose an object and will obtain that objects value. If multiple people choose the same object then the ...
0
votes
1answer
102 views
Framework for reinforcement learning for games [closed]
[I hope this is the correct place to post - if not, please feel free to migrate the question to another site].
I would like to build a computer program that will play games effectively, and I want to ...
0
votes
0answers
50 views
Easy backgammon proof [closed]
Hopefully someone can offer a formal answer to this simple scenario, and end an argument between my wife and I:
If a game of backgammon is concluded, and throughout the game 1) neither player was ...
24
votes
12answers
1k views
The Monty Hall Problem - where does our intuition fail us?
From Wikipedia :
Suppose you're on a game show, and
you're given the choice of three
doors: Behind one door is a car;
behind the others, goats. You pick a
door, say No. 1, and the host, ...
0
votes
1answer
130 views
Odds that the jack of trump dealt 46% of time in pitch
In the game of Pitch what are the odds of the jack of trump being dealt in the 24 cards?
4
votes
1answer
114 views
What test should be used for detecting team imbalances in a game?
I'm playing the iPhone/Steam game Hero Academy. It's a bit like Chess, except there's some randomness, and at the beginning of a game players choose what team they'll use, each with different ...
4
votes
1answer
79 views
Comparing tournament results to chance
Basically what I want to achieve is to take loads of data from a certain game's tournaments and compare it to chance, i.e., I want to see whether a "coin flipping tournament" would have similar ...
2
votes
1answer
169 views
Attempting to define linear weights for Goals scored in the English Premiership
I'm very keen on sports and am just starting to understand how I can start to apply maths to sports related problems and issues. I'm keen to get some pointers in the right direction for the linear ...
1
vote
1answer
327 views
Standard deviation of game results about predictions from a rating system
I'm very in to Sports analysis and am keen to look at finessing my analysis models that I have worked up (I don't have a great maths background, I've just done a little bit of reading).
Standard ...
5
votes
3answers
445 views
Probability of winning a tournament
Edited Question:
As I promised I've edited this question. The previous version was written with the intention of simplifying the real question, but it ended in losing the real significance. Now I'm ...
3
votes
3answers
640 views
How should we convert sports results data to perform a valid logistical regression?
Say we want to perform a logistical regression analysis (although my question pertains to regressions in general) on sports results to determine the effects of various factors on who wins and who ...
1
vote
1answer
197 views
Odds for high in the card game pitch
In the card game Pitch how do I calculate when my opponents have 12 cards out of 52 if they have the Ace, King or Queen of a suit? I assume there is only about a 22% chance of the Ace being in their ...
9
votes
3answers
364 views
How to find out if an online poker-site is fair?
Last week I had an interesting discussion with a good friend of mine. He had been playing some online poker and suggested that there is a relationship between new subscription/additional money ...
28
votes
4answers
994 views
Good games for learning statistical thinking?
Are there any games that get the player "think like a statistician"?
For example, lightbot gets you to "think like a programmer" (in a very basic way). Are there any games - designed for ...
2
votes
0answers
64 views
Do variations of ELO system exist for non-mirror games?
The ELO rating system and later improvements like Glicko are specifically designed, as far as I know, for mirror games. That is, we assume that no player has a systematic advantage over another. In ...
2
votes
1answer
104 views
Bracket Theory and Probability
So I apologize ahead of time if this isn't the correct venue for this question. I've been having a debate with a friend of mine for a few days now about what the best way to run a bracket is for a ...
12
votes
3answers
326 views
Measuring individual player effectiveness in 2-player per team sports
I've got a spreadsheet of some team scores. First team to 10 points wins. There are 2 players on each team. The players play with different teammates all the time, although they are not chosen ...
4
votes
1answer
130 views
Ways to determine if experience or recent practice time is more significant in ranking?
First a little background:
I'm a college paintball coach and I have two populations of players:
I. Players that have a lot of experience/skill prior to joining the team e.g. playing for amateur non ...
1
vote
0answers
44 views
Adjusting performance by opponent skill level in a simple contest
I've struggled with this question for several months and found this website, which is amazing.
Imagine a hypothetical league composed of players competing in a simple contest where the object of each ...
1
vote
1answer
516 views
How to solve Chuck-a-Luck puzzle
Story (spoilers!)
The puzzle:
Chuck-a-Luck is a gambling game often played at carnivals and gambling
houses. A player may bet on any one of the numbers 1,2,3,4,5,6. Three
dice are rolled. ...
2
votes
1answer
86 views
Average number of cards of a particular suit in a hand
I am creating a card game AI for an iPhone game and I'm stumped trying to come up with this statistic.
The deck has 4 suits. The cards are numbered 1-14 in each suit and there is one Joker. So, the ...
3
votes
1answer
109 views
Calculating the value of attributes of cards in a card game
I hope this is a stats question :) There's a game (RftG) with cards, each of which has various attributes (generally bonuses of some kind) and a price. I'm wondering if there's some kind of technique ...
2
votes
1answer
726 views
The “Risk” game dice problem
This definitely sounds like a homework, but I assure you that it's not. You're probably familiar with the Risk game. Now, friend of mine rolled 3 aces in one hand. I reckon that probability of such ...
6
votes
3answers
709 views
The expected value of random variable on tosses of a coin
Came across an interesting problem today. You are given a coin and x money, you double money if you get heads and lose half if tails on any toss.
What is the expected value of your money in n tries
...
4
votes
2answers
403 views
What's the probability that a bookmaker is mispricing odds on soccer games?
An English soccer team plays a series of matches against different opponents, of varying ability. A bookmaker offers odds for each match as to whether it will be a home win, away win, or draw. ...
19
votes
4answers
1k views
Probability of not drawing a word from a bag of letters in Scrabble
Suppose you had a bag with $n$ tiles, each with a letter on it. There are $n_A$ tiles with letter 'A', $n_B$ with 'B', and so on, and $n_*$ 'wildcard' tiles (we have $n = n_A + n_B + \ldots + n_Z + ...
0
votes
3answers
2k views
Odds of rolling doubles or triples given N 6-sided dice
Over the holidays I played a dice game where each player had 3 to 7 d6 to roll each turn. The game gave certain advantages to doubles and triples. I wanted to know the odds of rolling doubles or ...
3
votes
2answers
754 views
Probability of Game Outcomes (with ties!)
Let's say I'm playing 10 "games". For each game, I know the probability of winning, the probability of tying, and the probability of losing.
From these values, I can calculate the probability of ...
3
votes
0answers
142 views
A matching problem for 3 decks of cards [closed]
a recent posting on math.stackexchange reminds me of a somewhat less ambitious$^1$ question i have been meaning to ask.
suppose 3 people each have a deck of $M$ cards numbered from 1 to $M$, in ...
5
votes
1answer
229 views
What is the expected number of runs of same color in a standard deck of cards?
Standard deck has 52 cards, 26 Red and 26 Black. A run is a maximum contiguous block of cards, which has the same color.
Eg.
(R,B,R,B,...,R,B) has 52 runs.
(R,R,R,...,R,B,B,B,...,B) has 2 runs.
...
4
votes
3answers
961 views
Two answers to the dartboard problem
General question: Given a dartboard of unit radius, what's the probability that a dart randomly lands within a circle of radius 1/3 centered inside the dartboard?
Standard answer: The dart is thrown ...
5
votes
1answer
230 views
How could I predict the results of a simple card game?
I want to predict the results of a simple card game, to judge on average, how long a game will last.
My 'simple' game is;
Cards are dealt from a randomised
deck to n players (typically 2-4)
Each ...
