# Tagged Questions

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### How can I predict the odds that a dodgeball team is going to win based on the winning history of its players?

Imagine there are 80 dodgeball players in the world. Each of them has played thousands of dodgeball games with the other 79 players in more-or-less random order. This is a world without teams (e.g., ...
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### How to predict match outcome in team game based on participating players

I have a typical scenario and wanted to know how to approach the problem to solve it. Let say the data set contains $N$ records and each record contains $10$ names and an output variable. The first ...
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### How do I calculate the probabilities in this decision making scenario?

I have the following problem: A decision has to be made. Paradoxically, there is value in only being marginally correct in making this decision, say I want to be correct 60 percent of the time. That ...
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### Looking for correct distribution for modelling foosball scoring

I'm, trying to adapt something like http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Statistical_association_football_predictions to 2v2 foosball games at our office. For football, they basically have an offense score ...
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### Pareto Optimal - improving for one player, static for another

This is very basic - Something is pareto optimal if you can't improve the outcome for one player without worsening the outcome for another. But what about where one player gets the same but the ...
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### Predicting team performance

Are there any Machine Learning/ Datamining research paper which deals with predicting the performance of two team containing each $x$ players?
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### If a tennis match was a single large set, how many games would give the same accuracy?

Tennis has a peculiar three tier scoring system, and I wonder if this has any statistical benefit, from the point of view of a match as an experiment to determine the better player. For those ...
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### How do I optimize this scenario to achieve the lowest score?

Here is the scenario: I am iteratively seeking a goal state by selecting from one of a set of sets of options. The set of sets defines the possible routes to the goal state, and each inner set ...
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### Wigan scores after 30 minutes. Calculate home, away and draw in percentage terms with poisson regression

I have the following exercise: Wigan v city 90 mins match: Wigan scores after 30 minutes. Calculate home, away and draw in percentage terms with poisson regression, assuming pre-match odds ...
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### How to compute the distribution of sums when rolling 'N' dice with 'M' faces?

I stumbled upon the following problem: Given 'n' dice with 'm' faces with values 1 to m and a number 'x' what is the probability that the sum of the numbers on the 'm' dice is greater than or equal ...
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### Comparing two different leagues of similar but not equal distributions around a standard deviation of error of a prediction from a rating system

This query ties a lot of my interests in rating sports teams together, because as I’ve mentioned before I do a version of the Kenneth Massey method (as per his 1997 thesis ...
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### Trying to test the Significance of the Seattle Seahawks Home Field Advantage

Basically I have an interest in sports and as part of that do a Microsoft Excel based version of Kenneth Massey 1997 thesis (http://masseyratings.com/theory/massey97.pdf) method of ranking sports ...
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### Maximizing choice

There are N number of people and X amount of objects with different values. Each person will choose an object and will obtain that objects value. If multiple people choose the same object then the ...
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### Framework for reinforcement learning for games [closed]

[I hope this is the correct place to post - if not, please feel free to migrate the question to another site]. I would like to build a computer program that will play games effectively, and I want to ...
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### Easy backgammon proof [closed]

Hopefully someone can offer a formal answer to this simple scenario, and end an argument between my wife and I: If a game of backgammon is concluded, and throughout the game 1) neither player was ...
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### The Monty Hall Problem - where does our intuition fail us?

From Wikipedia : Suppose you're on a game show, and you're given the choice of three doors: Behind one door is a car; behind the others, goats. You pick a door, say No. 1, and the host, ...
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### Odds that the jack of trump dealt 46% of time in pitch

In the game of Pitch what are the odds of the jack of trump being dealt in the 24 cards?
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### What test should be used for detecting team imbalances in a game?

I'm playing the iPhone/Steam game Hero Academy. It's a bit like Chess, except there's some randomness, and at the beginning of a game players choose what team they'll use, each with different ...
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### Comparing tournament results to chance

Basically what I want to achieve is to take loads of data from a certain game's tournaments and compare it to chance, i.e., I want to see whether a "coin flipping tournament" would have similar ...
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### Attempting to define linear weights for Goals scored in the English Premiership

I'm very keen on sports and am just starting to understand how I can start to apply maths to sports related problems and issues. I'm keen to get some pointers in the right direction for the linear ...
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### Standard deviation of game results about predictions from a rating system

I'm very in to Sports analysis and am keen to look at finessing my analysis models that I have worked up (I don't have a great maths background, I've just done a little bit of reading). Standard ...
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### Probability of winning a tournament

Edited Question: As I promised I've edited this question. The previous version was written with the intention of simplifying the real question, but it ended in losing the real significance. Now I'm ...
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### How should we convert sports results data to perform a valid logistical regression?

Say we want to perform a logistical regression analysis (although my question pertains to regressions in general) on sports results to determine the effects of various factors on who wins and who ...
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### Odds for high in the card game pitch

In the card game Pitch how do I calculate when my opponents have 12 cards out of 52 if they have the Ace, King or Queen of a suit? I assume there is only about a 22% chance of the Ace being in their ...
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### How to find out if an online poker-site is fair?

Last week I had an interesting discussion with a good friend of mine. He had been playing some online poker and suggested that there is a relationship between new subscription/additional money ...
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### Good games for learning statistical thinking?

Are there any games that get the player "think like a statistician"? For example, lightbot gets you to "think like a programmer" (in a very basic way). Are there any games - designed for ...
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### Do variations of ELO system exist for non-mirror games?

The ELO rating system and later improvements like Glicko are specifically designed, as far as I know, for mirror games. That is, we assume that no player has a systematic advantage over another. In ...
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### Bracket Theory and Probability

So I apologize ahead of time if this isn't the correct venue for this question. I've been having a debate with a friend of mine for a few days now about what the best way to run a bracket is for a ...
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### Measuring individual player effectiveness in 2-player per team sports

I've got a spreadsheet of some team scores. First team to 10 points wins. There are 2 players on each team. The players play with different teammates all the time, although they are not chosen ...
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### Ways to determine if experience or recent practice time is more significant in ranking?

First a little background: I'm a college paintball coach and I have two populations of players: I. Players that have a lot of experience/skill prior to joining the team e.g. playing for amateur non ...
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### Adjusting performance by opponent skill level in a simple contest

I've struggled with this question for several months and found this website, which is amazing. Imagine a hypothetical league composed of players competing in a simple contest where the object of each ...
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### How to solve Chuck-a-Luck puzzle

Story (spoilers!) The puzzle: Chuck-a-Luck is a gambling game often played at carnivals and gambling houses. A player may bet on any one of the numbers 1,2,3,4,5,6. Three dice are rolled. ...
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### Average number of cards of a particular suit in a hand

I am creating a card game AI for an iPhone game and I'm stumped trying to come up with this statistic. The deck has 4 suits. The cards are numbered 1-14 in each suit and there is one Joker. So, the ...
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### Calculating the value of attributes of cards in a card game

I hope this is a stats question :) There's a game (RftG) with cards, each of which has various attributes (generally bonuses of some kind) and a price. I'm wondering if there's some kind of technique ...
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### The “Risk” game dice problem

This definitely sounds like a homework, but I assure you that it's not. You're probably familiar with the Risk game. Now, friend of mine rolled 3 aces in one hand. I reckon that probability of such ...
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### The expected value of random variable on tosses of a coin

Came across an interesting problem today. You are given a coin and x money, you double money if you get heads and lose half if tails on any toss. What is the expected value of your money in n tries ...
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### What's the probability that a bookmaker is mispricing odds on soccer games?

An English soccer team plays a series of matches against different opponents, of varying ability. A bookmaker offers odds for each match as to whether it will be a home win, away win, or draw. ...
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### What is the expected number of runs of same color in a standard deck of cards?

Standard deck has 52 cards, 26 Red and 26 Black. A run is a maximum contiguous block of cards, which has the same color. Eg. (R,B,R,B,...,R,B) has 52 runs. (R,R,R,...,R,B,B,B,...,B) has 2 runs. ...