Prediction is concerned with assessing the probability of unknown values from known values and inferred relationships.

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using rate of change to find concavity of an oscillator [on hold]

I have an oscillator with a minimum and a maximum that plots curves smoothly (with very low noise) I would like to predict the next ten bars using the change it made from the previous bar to the next ...
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1answer
11 views

Predictive analysis based on history

Let me first say that I am a CS person and my knowledge about statistics is quite basic. I am trying to see what predictive analysis to use for a problem I am trying to solve. I will try to make my ...
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2answers
30 views

Predict Seasonal Variations

I am developing an application related to pharmaceutical industry. Certain items are sold in significantly higher quantities during specific periods of the year. For example, here in my country, ...
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0answers
15 views

Getting estimates of hospital specific stroke admissions data

I am analysing a small data set on stroke process of care gathered from public sources but don't have access to hospital specific emergency stroke admissions over a period of time data except for ...
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4 views

given a set of pairs of graphs, build a model that accept a graph and predicts it matching graph

Training Data I have a set of pairs of normally distributed graphs, each with a concrete last sample (maximal X) Question I want to build a model (formula) from the data input: a single graph ...
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16 views

How to get names instead of serial numbers in the prediction results? [migrated]

I have built a predictive model using bayesglm that predicts attrition and gives out the prediction results as either 0(employee would leave the job) or 1(employee wont leave the job). so the test ...
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17 views

Predictive Data Model - Is this approach correct?

I’m working on a data science project for a class where I’m trying to develop a model that predicts whether customers will lapse (definition below) in the future based on past data. I have a method ...
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17 views

Inverse Box-Cox transform in Python

I am using SciPy's boxcox function to perform a Box-Cox transformation on a continuous variable. ...
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28 views

Certainty estimate for prediction of largest of several converging variables

Problem I want to have an estimate for the certainty which of several (3-4) variables is the variable with the largest value, given some sample values which should eventually converge to different ...
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21 views

How to use SEM for prediction?

I am working on a structural equation model (SEM). The goal in the model is to model the level of satisfaction with commute to work. I already fit the model to the data I have; however, what I would ...
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19 views

prediction of variable in the future?

I have some data from sensors in my phone.I have their respective battery levels at each timestamp the sensor readings were recorded in phone.My aim is to be able to predict, lets say that i have ...
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1answer
80 views

Prediction when survey subsets create dramatically smaller Ns

Suppose you want to predict an outcome using a sample whose N is... 10,000 based on most demographic variables 9,000 based on Survey Question 1 3,000 who answered "Yes" to Question 1 and thus were ...
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4 views

Make a prediction using SAS proc reg [migrated]

I am trying to create a prediction interval based on a linear model in SAS. My SAS code is ...
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12 views

In ensemble predictions, what is reliability diagram?

I have recently heard the term reliability diagram used with regards to the analysis of ensemble predictions. What does it show and how is it calculated?
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1answer
108 views

Suitable metric for consistency of parametric models

When fitting a parametric model to a data set assuming that our selected model class contains the truth, what performance metric should be used so that parameters converge to the truth as sample size ...
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2answers
31 views

Can a 1st Order Model capture information that a 2nd Order model can't?

Let's say we have some sequence $y_1 \ldots y_n$. By definition, a 2nd order Markov model can capture more information from the sequence than a first or zeroth order Markov model. What I'm interested ...
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1answer
43 views

Is it possible to get a covariance matrix of fitted values for a GLM model in R?

I would like to get a covariance matrix of fitted probabilities for a logistic regression model in R. I would like to do this because I want to find the variance of the difference between the two ...
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2answers
33 views

Is it possible for a predictor to have low correlation but low rmse as well

I have this strange condition. I have two predictors. One of the predictors has low correlation with the target but less rmse. On the other hand another predictor has high correlation but high rmse as ...
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1answer
29 views

Regression/classification, how to accommodate the missing columns of data?

I would like to apply any regression methods, such as the ones available using WEKA libraries (for example, SVMs, NNs, Random Trees,...) . However, I am getting very low results since I am missing the ...
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17 views

Sample size for validating a prediction model

Dear friends: In an earlier pilot study a third- degree polynomial model was built, X = time (days) Y = Moisture loss. I need to validate this model in a larger study with more samples. ...
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25 views

R plm: understand pmodel.response

I need help in understanding the pmodel.response function from the R package plm. So far I have interpreted this as a way to get ...
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1answer
16 views

predict data for new group from gamboost model

Suppose I have the following mboost::gamboost model: gamboost(resp ~ bbs(x1) + bols(x2) + brandom(x3), data = data) Suppose I ...
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4answers
175 views

Can predictive power be inferred from only in-sample modelling results?

I wonder if one can tell anything about predictive power of a model if model selection and estimation was done using all available data. That is, there was no data left for "out of sample" prediction ...
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1answer
23 views

R- predict payment day (1-31)

I need to predict payment day of the month (1-31) for each client (I have at most 9 month of payments and on average is 5). I have both categorical variables and numerical. I tried to use rpart to do ...
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26 views

Extracting fixed-length feature vectors from variable-length time series

I have a classification problem where I would like to develop a binary classifier to classify between two different types of objects, given a time-series (signal) related to that object. The problem ...
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20 views

Best classifiers for large data sets?

I'm working on a data set that contains electricity consumption data. There will be 2-3 features used. I'm not sure if that is all of the features to be used. Also, it will be a really large data set. ...
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1answer
93 views

Predictive Modelling in R

I am new to R and I am trying to do some predictive modelling on data set which has 16 feature variables and the target value is numeric in R. I am not sure if the steps I am following will help me to ...
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16 views

Using test data sets in simulation study

I'd like to know the correct way to simulate test data for a simulation study. For simplicity, suppose that I want to test a linear regression model. Chapter 7 of ESL explains that the average test ...
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1answer
17 views

Multiple regression with dependent variables

I have a dataset with 3 variables (X,Y and Z) and I want to find the best estimates for the constants a,b,c & d. I have been looking into multiregression analysis, but that does not seem to work ...
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29 views

Panel data forecasting from Arellano-Bond GMM estimation

I want to come up with predictions of final energy demand per capita (fe) for a panel of countries. Explanatory variables are GDP per capita (gdp) and population density (pop) -- all variables are ...
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1answer
35 views

prediction of polls

Just as an example Scotland has poll to decide whether they need to be independent from UK or not. Here is BBC's summary of different polls: ...
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2answers
46 views

Difference in predicted value using two different methods

Take these two vectors: ...
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0answers
45 views

Hierarchical ordinal regression (or ranking) with prediction constraints on clusters?

I am interested in predicting an ordered outcome of 0,1,2 or 3 (0<1<2<3) for individual responses in a bunch of different clusters. In each cluster $i$ of size $n_i$ there is a single 3, 2 ...
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2answers
89 views

Metrics for comparing estimated lists to a 'true' list

I'm wondering what the best ways to compare (possibly ranked) lists when we know what the true ranking is and also the variable that decides the ranking. Say this is the top 10 of a certain list, we ...
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47 views

Can value of predicted probability from logistic model be greater than one?

I derived a multivariate logistic model from my data containing a single binary response and five predictors. I tried to calculate the predicted probabilities of one of the binary predictor ...
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1answer
123 views

Plotting a “posterior median surface”

As part of reproducing a model I described partially in this question on Stack Overflow, I want to obtain a plot of a posterior distribution. The (spatial) model describes the selling price of some ...
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1answer
71 views

Product price prediction - include important external factors

I need some hint over what is the general prediction solution to modelling products prices in such a case: I have several models (types) of the product I want to predict prices for each of these ...
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1answer
72 views

what are the alternative open source tools for PredictionIO?

PredictionIO is good to be enough for content discovery and recommendation but it seems it does not support classification. Then I should use a different tool then Prediction IO for my prediction ...
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1answer
31 views

Classification tips for a begginer

I'm doing a graduation work that involves applying Classification algorithms in a dataset of matches from Dota 2 (a popular MOBA game). Here's an explanation of the problem: Dota 2 matches are played ...
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1answer
47 views

R - ROCR Library - Understanding predict and prediction method

My name is Abhi and I am trying to understand the difference between predict and prediction. I am using the r language and my ide is rstudio. I have created a random forest model (r package ...
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29 views

Do you need causal models when doing counterfactual predictions?

I am modeling the impact the number of a certain type of company (bottom of pyramid (BOP) companies, ie. companies that cater to the poorest consumers) have on market price. I considered the ...
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0answers
37 views

Selecting individuals from a population using a binary classifier

I have a dataset consisting of around 200 individuals, whose outcome is either of state $0$ or $1$. I am able to make binary classifiers and predictors on this set and build ROC-curves for them just ...
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3answers
138 views

How to form a predictive model in R?

I have two data sets whose structure is like this: DATA SET 1: ...
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68 views

How to develop a prediction model based on correlation in R?

I have two sets of data, say sales and profit, and I have calculated the correlation between these two data over different months using R. So currently I have ...
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1answer
30 views

Predictive Model from Counts Data

I have some data that is the number of times a person visited a doctors office over a course of $5$ years. I want to create a model that would be able to predict the most likely number of counts that ...
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53 views

Prediction using Support Vector (SV) method in R

I came to know that using SVM method we can predict the future value more accurately than other normal methods (like ARIMA). My question is how do we give the future index value (let's say 101 when we ...
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0answers
22 views

Prediction using CRFs for time series data

I have a little confusion about validity of some predictions I am making using a CRF model I have trained. The CRF model is trained on some input time-series, and when making predictions, I am ...
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1answer
37 views

Survfit function in R to score a new dataset

I have built a cox proportional hazards model in the R survival package. I want to score new data set using this model. I thought the survfit function would doing this using survfit(original model, ...
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46 views

How to calculate prediction intervals from a multiple linear regression with simulated future Xs

I am using a multiple linear regression model to generate 80% prediction intervals based on simulations of future X values. While I understand how to calculate prediction intervals typically (such as ...
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0answers
29 views

How to use coxph for prediction of event?

I fitted a cox model as: cfit <- coxph(Surv(tr$start, tr$end, tr$event1) ~ imp+sec + cluster(tr$compid)) Now i want to get the probability of event1 for the ...