Prediction is concerned with assessing the probability of unknown values from known values and inferred relationships.

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First order model vs n-order models

Plenty of different research models showed that n-order models give better results than first order models. For example, for location this is work that shows this ...
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13 views

Forecast package Prediction Horizon issue in R [migrated]

I am new to R. I was trying to predict using holt method but getting this strange error. I am using forecast package V-7.1 with R (version 3.2.5) and Rstudio (Version 0.99.896). I reinstall all from R ...
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10 views

Predicting occurrence of an event using time series data

I have data coming from sensors for 1 month. The data is time series with each data point separated by interval of 1 second. There are predictors like temperature, pressure, speed of the fan that has ...
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21 views

How to predict when using normalized data?

So, I am taking this course on machine learning by Andrew Ng. Wanted to write my own linear regression program. Everything is fine. I mean normalize data, and run linear regression. Now I'm left with ...
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21 views

How to create training set for uni-variate prediction using SVM?

I am new to R and statistics. I have a problem related to the prediction: I want to predict a univariate time series using SVM, but I do not know how to construct the training set. what I want is that ...
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9 views

Strange predictions from binomial glmm?

I am analysing the dominance of a Species, i.e. its relative abundance in a community. Since these data are proportions I use binomial models. However, the predictions from these models are ...
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1answer
28 views

Optimal Cutpoint for Predicted Results from Kaplan Meier and Cox Regression

Is there anyway to get the optimal cutpoint for predicted survival probabilities of the aforementioned survival analysis approaches? Something like the optimal cutpoint from ...
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0answers
11 views

adjusting nnet model for prediction

Could someone give some hints how to adjust paramters in nnet model for predictions ? I mean following parameters: maxit, range, decay, size, and ...
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0answers
12 views

Using predict() to plot glm (and glmm) with continuous and categorical explanatory variables

I want to visualize the output from my glm by plotting the predicted values, and found an example in the Mixed Effects Models book by Zuur (pg 216-219). The description of this code from the book is: ...
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0answers
48 views

Is it possible to do a time series analysis with more than one explanatory variable?

I am working on a project, and I am absolutely new to forecasting and not so strong in statistics. I have an employee data for the last 7 years, along with the other variables like economic growth, ...
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10 views

validate correctness of prediction

I have two datasets. 1st contains original data. 2nd contains predicted data. I want to count how well the prediction was. I was assuming following algorithm: Calculate absolute difference between ...
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9 views

Polynomial curve fitting for temperature prediction

First of all, I would like to say that I know very little about statistics. I need to make a C# application to predict three days weather for school project and need some model and have been exploring ...
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28 views
+50

Stata: Predicted values in autoregressive system

I'm trying to replicate the results from Yagan (2016, pp 8-11). There, the following autoregressive system is run: The author then runs this system based on data until 2007. Then, he computes ...
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15 views

questions about predicting time series using gaussian process regression

I am using gaussian process regression to predict a time series. The time series is number of daily active users(DAU) of an APP, and takes daily numbers of installing users and uninstalling users as ...
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11 views

How to use dummy variables for prediction

I have a sales data and in that data I have introduced dummy variables to capture the sales trend like "is the store open on sunday"."is the sale more that certain threshold" etc. Now if I train a ...
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1answer
56 views

Linear Regression Prediction vs Extrapolation Prediction

Suppose we observe $x$ and $y$ and we want to predict at $x=5$. A naive way would be to take each observation and compute $5/(x/y)$ or similarly $5*(y/x)$ and then take the overall mean. Thi is ...
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0answers
10 views

Predictions from Poisson GLMM (lme4) lower compared to GLM

I am modelling visitor counts to a sample of sites in a forest in order to predict the number of visitors to the rest of the forest. My predictor variables are time of day (categorical), day of week ...
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1answer
22 views

Forecasting survival probability using Cox Regression

I'm able to obtain predicted survival probabilities of cox regression using either survfit.coxph or predictSurvProb from ...
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0answers
16 views

least squares approximation to predict weather

I have daily temperature and rainfall data of fifteen years. I do not know much about stats. So here is my question. How do i use least squares approximation to predict temperature of at least three ...
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1answer
30 views

Bayesian networks - prediction question

Let's consider a dumb spam filter BN (see figure below) for which I've already calculated the a posteriori parameter distributions (see normalized table values). I want to predict if next email ...
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1answer
43 views

How to set the prediction range of ARIMA model in R

I am new to R and statistics. I have a problem related to the prediction: I am not able to plot the real value together with the predicted value. PROBLEM: I want to feed first 16 values into the ...
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8 views

UK population and NHS spending projections

Say I want to make some projection about the size of the UK population 25 years from now and consider the impact of this population growth on national health spending. Is the following approach ...
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0answers
23 views

Posterior Pred. Distribution for Bayesian Hierarchical Regression Model for Existing Group Parameters

For a hierarchical regression model, I understand that there are two posterior predictive distributions potentially of interest: (1): The distribution of future observations $\tilde{y}$ ...
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0answers
7 views

When making out-of-sample predictions, is there a reason to keep observed values for the predicted variable?

the dependent variable of my investment model has a large number of missing values. Fortunately a variable with a strong relation to the investment value is available for all observations, so that I ...
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19 views

Prediction interval for multi step forecast

I am using the "drift method" to make a multi-step forecast. The formula for the forecast is $y_T = \frac{h}{T-1} \sum (y_t - y_{t-1})$, where $h$ is the forecast horizon and $y_T$ is the last ...
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55 views

Predicting multivariate uneven time series of discrete/categorical data

I have a basic background in stats, DSP, ML etc. but by no means an expert so some of my terminology is going to be rusty. It probably makes the most sense if I simply show you what i wanted to do and ...
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19 views

How to obtain the equation of a predictive interval around the regression line in R? [duplicate]

I have a some data set on which I fit a linear regression model using the lm function in R. I can also visually obtain the prediction Interval around that regression line using predict. My question is ...
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1answer
11 views

Absolute Average deviation in percentage calculation

Sorry if my terminology is incorrect. I am trying to calculate the average error of prediction to be represented in percentage. For example, I should be able to say, the predicted values are on ...
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0answers
20 views

How to predict the survival probability for test data?

Below is a snapshot of a dataset for which i am trying to find the survival probability at an id level. I identified the survival probability curve and the hazard function. Hazard function follows ...
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12 views

Scaling existing regression coefficients to predict for different dataset

I am tasked with coming up with a way to project customer activity for different groups of customers for 60 months. These groups can be based on a multitude of factors - plans, acquisition channel, ...
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1answer
51 views

What is the exact difference between Prediction and Extrapolation?

Apologies if the question is too trivial but what exactly sets these two apart? Let's say that I have a set of data for a hundred points (the independent variable may not be uniformly spaced) as: ...
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1 view

Determining Task Predictive Times

I have several million entries for events that contain one or more(very few singletons) tasks(about 1300 discrete identifiers) and a total time. My thought was to take average time for each task ...
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14 views

Predictions under a GLMER framework

I'm currently working on a wildlife research problem where I evaluated animal habitat selection as a function of distance to landscape features/types (e.g., distance to shrub/scrub). I used a logistic ...
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3 views

Validation of prediction interval for count data

I have developed a random-effects (frailty) survival model for repeated events which enables calculating individual-specific mean and prediction interval for the cumulative incidence (rate) of future ...
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6 views

1 categorical IV and 2 DVs

Please, i want to measure the effect of LMX relationship (leader-member exchange) on two dimensions of organisation citizenship behavior(OCB) The LMX is a categorical variable and OCB is also a ...
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1answer
49 views

Predicted probability values from Logistic regression are negative [closed]

I have a categorical response which i want to predict, so i am in the process of developing a logistic model. I am using k-fold cross-validation for model selection. The first model, which was just ...
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0answers
7 views

How to test predictability of an explanatory model?

As a part of my research I create an explanatory negative binomial regression model. Now, I want to show this model can also have predictability power. I don't want to compare my model with other ...
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3answers
41 views

How to predict orders when unit of measure is different across and within months

I have to predict the order quantity for a 6 month time period. The products are available in different unit of measurement and i dont the relationship between the measures i.e i dont know the ...
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2answers
47 views

What is a good method for predicting temperature and precipitation

I was wondering what is according to you the best method for predicting temperature and precipitation in say 10 days period. So far I have tried ARIMA models, which make sense, but I'm not satisfied ...
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1answer
20 views

Predict next date of incident using R from dates only

I have name of incident and date, which is not univariate. I need to do prediction/forecasting for upcoming event based on date. I have tried to do it by using average of date difference between ...
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0answers
7 views

Minimum/Optimal Training Set Size for a mix of categorical and numeric features

Can someone help explain to me how I would go about determining the 'minimal' training set size I need depending upon how many predictor variables I have and also how many of them are categorical vs ...
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13 views

How to make educated guess about movement of people through graph?

I have data about weekly counts of people on entry points (orange circles on the picture below) and need to make educated guess about their counts at destination points (marked by green stars). I know ...
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35 views

Katz Backoff help calculating alpha

$Pkatz(z|x,y) =$ $P'(z|x,y), if C(x,y,z) > 0$ $α(x,y)Pkatz(z|y), else if C(x,y) > 0$ $P'(z), otherwise.$ $Pkatz(z|y) =$ $P'(z|y),ifC(y,z)>0$ $α(y)P' (z), otherwise.$ ...
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1answer
48 views

Solve a and b if, result = ax + bx*x

I have around 100 rows of data. Each row have a result and x. The samples in every row have different values for result and x. How can I analyze these samples and calculate the value of a and b, so ...
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1answer
36 views

Time Series Prediction for process plant

Firstly, we have no knowledge about advanced data analysis or data mining. We are working with process plant which gather data that comes into the process plant. We use sensors data for the input to ...
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1answer
25 views

Can different classification methods be compared in the same manner as models during hyper-parameter tuning?

If I would like to choose between different classifiers, e.g. support vector machines (SVM) and boosted trees, based on their generalization performance, can I do this in the same way as I would do ...
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0answers
10 views

Difference variance prediction and variance of predicted error

Given a model a simple model: $$Y_{t} = \phi Y_{t-1} + \epsilon_{t}$$ Where $\epsilon$ is white noise: zero mean and variance $\sigma_{\epsilon}$ Imagine that you have some data and then you make ...
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2answers
86 views

To select variables or not in logistic regression

I am trying to find predictors for an outcome. I was taught to perform univariate analyses & put significant variables into a multivariate logistic regression model. Then I remove variables one by ...
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6 views

What are the available methods for binary data prediction based on cluster analysis? [duplicate]

I am working on a binary time serie of data .Let's just call them X1,....,XN. Assume that from an old useful data historic, we could identify several data sequences. For example :(X1,X3,X129 ) ...
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37 views

Calculating confidence intervals for ordinal logistic regression predictions

I'm looking to plot the predicted probabilities for an ordinal logistic regression for a 3-level factor with confidence bands around the prediction lines. I'm struggling with the proper way to ...