# Tagged Questions

A prediction interval is an interval that covers the future (or otherwise unknown) value of a random variable with some prespecified probability.

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### Prediction interval vs. confidence interval in linear regression analysis

I know such a problem is explained many times, but I have still a problem with the concept and interpretation: I would like to estimate export weight for 2016 The red point is estimated point red ...
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### Prediction Interval for Loess Forecast

I have consulted this question on the basis of prediction intervals for loess (How to calculate prediction intervals for LOESS?). However, I am unaware of whether it is proper or possible to use ...
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### Making a forecast: Confidence/Prediction/Tolerance Interval?

I understand the the difference between these three types of intervals but I will summarize briefly: Confidence Interval: an interval that will contain the true mean value say, 95%, of the time. ...
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### Prediction Algorithms in Statistics

Here it is what I'm looking for: Having a random variable, with an unknown distribution of its values, is there any smart algorithm that can predict the next value of the variable based on n samples ...
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### How to improve model by Bayesian Statistics/Inference? [closed]

I am puzzled about model improvement in implementing Bayesian statistics/inference. Normally, we will use a fixed model in bayesian statistics, e.g. normal distribution with parameter mean and sd. ...
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### Getting prediction intervals from GBM models

I am working with GBM regression models(in H2O) and am using Quantile distribution for the distribution parameter. I am looking for a method to provide prediction intervals in addition to point value ...
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### Does combining forecast models produce good prediction intervals?

In this blog post, @rob-hyndman says: If you only want point forecasts, that is the best approach available in the forecast package. It is also better than any of the commercial software (at least ...
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### what is the estimated variance of predictions from mixed model?

I have fitted the following lmer model (assume it is "correct") with lme4: Y ~ X1 + X2 + X3 + (1 | year) + (1 | site) + (1 | site:year) where X1-X3 are ...
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### Obtaining uncertainties from an errors-in-variables machine learning algorithm

In my field, every value reported comes with a 1-sigma uncertainty value. I'm using random forest regressors to estimate a value. All of my inputs have 1-sigma uncertainty information with them. ...