A probability provides a quantitative description of the likely occurrence of a particular event.

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Binomial Distribution With Scale Variable?

I'm attempting to generate some random data using a distribution. I need each random to fall within a certain range e.g. 0-20, and I would also like to control where the center of the curve lies. For ...
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1answer
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what is the intuition behind the SRSWOR formula?

I earlier asked about Slovin's Formula (http://math.stackexchange.com/questions/1410492/what-is-the-intuition-behind-slovins-formula), and learned shortly thereafter that it was derived from this ...
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Are the $\text{P}$ and $\Pr$ operators equivalent?

I have seen both used to represent probability. Are they interchangeable?
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Suppose the ln(odds) of an event is -0.42. what is the probability of that event?

I have found the value of odds = e^-0.42 and I know the formula for finding odds is p/(1-p). However, The answer used the equation p/(1+p). Can anyone explain this to me?
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1answer
18 views

Analytical expression for variance as a function of the mean value

I have a research problem that seems analogous to a 'draw balls from a bin' problem. Imagine an experiment where $N$ balls are drawn from an infinite bin containing '0' balls and '1' balls, where $N$ ...
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12 views

CPD Logical OR - context-specific independence [on hold]

$X_1$ and $X_2$ are the parents of $Y$. $X_1$ and $X_2$ are two independent Bernoulli random variables. $Y = OR(X_1, X_2)$. Are $X_1$ and $X_2$ context-specific independent when $Y = 0$? By knowing ...
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1answer
32 views

Conditional probability: how do i find the conditional probability given two parameters?

It is known that 25% of full time workers are also students. It is also known that 64% of the population work full-time and that 22% of the population are students. If a member of the population is ...
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24 views

convergence rate of Pearson correlation matrix

I posted recently a related question about the convergence rate of a Pearson correlation coefficient, here. Now, I am interested in the matrix version. Let $X_1,\ldots,X_N \sim \mathcal{N}(0,1)$ be ...
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15 views

Probability of a team scoring a goal?

I am trying to work out the probability of teams scoring a goal in a football match. Obviously there are many factors to consider, and the probability is impossible to predict correctly as there are ...
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1answer
61 views

Role of probability in machine learning

In any machine learning example say linear regression, the objective is sometimes two-fold. One to optimize some analytical function like squared error and one is to optimize some probability ...
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1answer
30 views

Probability homework question with specifity, sensitivity and prevalence

Assume that a diagnostic test for EPM (equine protozoal myoeloencephalitis) has a sensitivity of 89% and a specifity of 92%. The prevalence of the disease is 1% What is the probability that ...
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2answers
65 views

Probability of a run of events from past data

I would like to calculate the probability that there will be a car crash at a certain crossroad for three days in a row. I would like to compute that based on the data I have about the crashes in the ...
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19 views

Which regression model to use for a probability as dependent variable? [duplicate]

My dependent variable is a probability. As such, values lie between 0 and 1. The most common values are 0, 0.5, and 1 each occurring in 20% to 30% of the observations but any value in between is ...
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2answers
40 views

Conditional Probability of Bathroom Stall Availability

You're walking towards a bathroom which has two stalls, Stall A and Stall B. There can only be two people in the bathroom at one ...
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0answers
12 views

Good way to weight some data based on inverse probability of occurence

I am trying to weight some observations from some data (this kind of thing is new for me). Basically it is observational data not designed as a weighted survey, but I want to use inverse weights to ...
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37 views

Your opinion? “yes” and “no” with p = .50 but in sum 55% yes vs 45% no - better score when response bias [closed]

I would like to get your opinion on the following issue (which surely is a generally known one): Experiment with 5000 trials A computer presented either “yes” or “no” in each trial with p = .50 both ...
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0answers
17 views

What is the point of finding a representative sample distribution rather than calculating the probabilities directly from the sample?

The only advantage I can see is in using things like confidence intervals determined from the distribution, but I constantly see people fit a distribution to a sample and use that to calculate the ...
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14 views

Local Version of Bernstein Von-Mises Theorem?

The Bernstein-Von Mises theorem says that, under reasonable conditions, the posterior distribution $p(\theta | x_{1},\ldots,x_{n})$ converges weakly to the normal distribution after suitable ...
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41 views

Stories about statistics, machine learning and data mining [closed]

I'm looking for interesting stories about statistics, machine learning, etc. Examples of stories I find interesting are the following: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carl_Friedrich_Gauss developed the ...
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23 views

probability of random sample mean

company x - mean life time: 6.5 variance: 0.81 company y - mean life time: 6.0 variance: 0.64 what is the probability that a random sample of 36 from company A will have a mean life time that is at ...
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1answer
22 views

How should I model this infection spreading problem? Is this article's solution at all reproducible?

While on the internet, I came across this quote in a Buzzfeed article, which granted, is probably not going to be the height of journalistic quality at all: This is simple math. If one person ...
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1answer
58 views

Probability of an unknown distribution

I have the sample of a variable $X$ whose distribution is unknown and I would like to know how to estimate the probability of $X$ taking some values. How can I do that? I assume that there's a non ...
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1answer
20 views

Simple Probability: Comparing marketing campaigns with pre and post-marketing data available

I have 5 campaigns and 3.000 people who took part in it, my data consists of people who took part in the campaign and then another measure 6 months later that shows how many of them converted. I want ...
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1answer
133 views

statistics of airline crashes

Ive been going back and forth with a friend of mine on the issue of airline crash statistics. The concept of "independent variables" seems to be the biggest disagreement between us, so I was hoping to ...
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1answer
33 views

Calculate probability of event from ecdf in R

I'm using R and would like to calculate the probability of an event happening. I used the ecdf function on daily revenue (month-to-date). I have a target and a daily number necessary to hit target ...
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21 views

Compute the Gibbs energy

I have a question about Gibbs distribution in Stochastic theory. In which, it defined a clique as a a subset $C$ in the whole image $\Omega$ if two different element of $C$ are neighbors. Figure 2 ...
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1answer
91 views

What is this random number generation algorithm and why does it work (or does it)?

Found the following (Monte Carlo) RNG algorithm in a certain article. Let $f(x),f:\mathbb{R}^n \rightarrow \mathbb{R}$ be the function from which the samples are desired. Draw a random point $x \in ...
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37 views

integral probability transformation

I have a data matrix and I want to get samples from the distribution that each row has by integral probability transformation method. I don't know what should I do? Any idea about it?? Here I have put ...
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1answer
82 views

Is there something clever I can do with a log of a sum?

In something I'm working on, the expression $$\lim_{n\rightarrow\infty}\exp\left(-\frac{1}{n}\log\left(\prod_{i=1}^{n}X_{i}+\prod_{i=1}^{n}Y_{i}\right)\right)$$ came up, in which all $X_{i}$ $iid$ and ...
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20 views

What does it means of Normalization term of Gibbs distribution?

I am studying about Gibbs distribution concept and I am confusing a one term in that concept that is normalization term. According to the Hammersley–Clifford theorem, an random $x$ can equivalently be ...
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3answers
204 views

How to choose whether to quit the bus queue or stay there using probability theory?

I've been thinking of something for some time now, and since I am not very proficient in probability theory I thought this could be a good place to ask this question. This is something that came up to ...
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25 views

Adding two distributions with proportional means and standard deviations

I need to know the mean $\mu_z$ and standard deviation $\sigma_z$ of a log normal distribution $Z(\mu_z,\sigma_z)$ which is the sum of two other log normal distributions--$X(\mu_x,\sigma_x)$ and ...
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1answer
30 views

Does conditional expectation represent the times that something happens?

Suppose that five coins are each tossed until the first head is obtained on each coin and where each coin has a probability $\theta$ of producing a head. If you are told that the total number of tails ...
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16 views

Sending a variable through multiple distributions

Say you have 5 people and 100 lbs of food. Person 1 (P1) gets to the food first, takes some food, and passes it to P2. P2 takes some of the food and passes it to P3, and on to P4. P5 gets whatever is ...
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18 views

Avg ST DEV vs St. Dev of Avgs

I have monthly sales figures, and have a column with the avg monthly sales figure. I also have a column for the st dev of each member's monthly sales figures. I want to standardize these values, and ...
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2answers
58 views

Is it reasonable to expect any process to have a zero error rate ?

I am interested in the philosophical answer to the question: can any complex process with a measurable outcome of success or failure truly have a zero error rate (ie 100% success and 0% failure). I ...
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1answer
33 views

Casino texas poker game: playing against dealer. Strategy

I have some questions regarding this casino Texas Poker game. You can wikipedia the rules but basically the game goes as following: You make a blind bet first . The dealer deals three cards, and ...
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1answer
56 views

Truly statistical task [duplicate]

I have a specific task in programming but I am curious about how long it will take to complete. I have an array "A" with 1000 unique numbers inside. For each iteration I am copying 30 randomly ...
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1answer
25 views

Deck of Cards - Combination Question

The question asks to randomly draw 13 cards from a standard deck (52 cards). What is the probability that there are 3 aces in those 13 cards you drew. Let $n(s)$ be the number of $13$ card ...
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Properties of the KL topology [reference request]

I'm trying to understand better what are the implications of a sequence of random variables $X_n$ converging toward some limit $X$ in the KL topology, ie the probability density functions are such ...
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47 views

Cumulative count of events

Consider an active chat room which has less than $N$ messages so far, each with a timestamp. How can I determine the first day where the expected cumulative message count has a $k$ chance of ...
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1answer
26 views

How to Compute for the Transition Probability Matrix F

this is our homework. I don't understand how to compute for the F matrix...I'm having a hard time understanding this transition probability matrix. Thank you in advance!
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29 views

Prediction Interval & Machine Learning

For linear regression, one can calculate a confidence interval for a prediction. Is this possible for all machine learning techniques? For example let's say I fit a neural network, and then start ...
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1answer
32 views

Basic Permutation Question

I've started studying permutations and I'm confused as to how to properly solve a problem. For example, select 4 digits from the set $\{1,2,3,4,5,6,7\}$ without replacement. What is the probability ...
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22 views

Probability of sampling at least one item from each set of a population with K sets

Let's say I have $K$ sets, each with $m$ elements; I want to calculate the probability of having at least one item from each set in a sample of size $n$. What if $m$ is not the same for each set and ...
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0answers
21 views

Scale dataset in R [duplicate]

I have 528 observed temperature data. The values of the data range $[2, 53]$. I have to scale the data to make it range between 0 and 1 to fit a beta distribution to find whether the beta distribution ...
2
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1answer
29 views

Sampling with independent probabilities

I'm looking for one specific sampling method that decides about inclusion probability of each item regardless of existence of other elements. As an example given 0.5 as the inclusion probability, it ...
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41 views

Probability of observing an excess of $k_0$ points via a binomial distribution with the isotropy assumption

Consider an area $\Omega$ and its subset $\Omega_1$. Let the hypothesis be that the distribution of points in the area $\Omega$ is isotropic. That means that a probability of finding a point in the ...
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48 views

Naive Bayes Classifier

I've been working with trying to understand and explain how Naive Bayes classifier works with the adjusted (prior and posterior) probabilities, and wanted to show my example to ensure I'm executing it ...
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1answer
37 views

Expectation of a random variable and the indicator random variable proof

I need to show that $E[T 1_A] = E[T|A]P(A)$. What I've got so far is $E[T1_A] = \int_{\Omega}T.1_A dP = \int_AT dP$. Now I know that $\int_AdP = P(A)$ however I'm lost as to how do I get the ...