Tagged Questions

1
vote
0answers
19 views

How to predict optimal reachability of outbound calls?

I'm trying to build a model to predict the optimal (clock) time for a outbound call to a person. The goal is to maximize reachability. The historical data contains some input variables (age, ...
2
votes
1answer
61 views

Modeling nearest event through multivariate random variable with condition

There are two time sequences in my system, one of them represents IN events, and the other OUT events. Each IN event would be released by the nearest following OUT event or reaching the deadline. I ...
10
votes
4answers
1k views

What is so cool about de Finetti's representation theorem?

From Theory of Statistics by Mark J. Schervish (page 12): Although DeFinetti's representation theorem 1.49 is central to motivating parametric models, it is not actually used in their ...
4
votes
1answer
72 views

What are my options for estimating probabilities of success/failure?

So, I want to estimate the probability that a student will succeed or fail in a particular major (suppose success means in this case to graduate with that major) based on data from that student's ...
4
votes
0answers
731 views

What is the difference between deterministic models and probabilistic models that assume that error follows a degenerate distribution?

I have thought for a while about this, and I'm not entirely certain what the difference is between a deterministic model and a probabilistic model with error following a degenerate distribution ...
0
votes
2answers
266 views

The Principle of Indifference in Overlapping Sets [closed]

EDIT: This closed question has been split into: a question about relevant literature Literature Relevant to Estimating Set-Overlap With Insufficient Information? a more open-ended chat ...
0
votes
0answers
143 views

Computing probability of proportions of (possibly) overlapping sets

Consider $n$ fixed subsets of a finite universe $U$: $A,B,C,D,\ldots$ Then let $Coll$ be the collection of sets we get from the closure of the set $\{U,A,B,C,D, \ldots\}$ under the operations ...
1
vote
1answer
123 views

Statistics or probabilities associated to each cluster in order to predict if a future datapoint is member of its nearest center

Suppose we have a classical k-means where iteratively each datapoint is assigned to its nearest center. After a certain time, suppose that we change the dataset by another similar dataset containing ...
0
votes
0answers
43 views

Effect of uncertainty in a parameter of a probability model on decisions — follow-up

I wrote this question which was previously answered I am exposing several experimental organisms to a toxin in the food. If the dosage is high enough, they will die. I am examining the number ...
3
votes
3answers
95 views

Effect of uncertainty in a parameter of a probability model on decisions

I am exposing several experimental organisms to a toxin in the food. If the dosage is high enough, they will die. I am examining the number that are dead after a day. For practical reasons, the ...
2
votes
1answer
158 views

Test to calculate the probability of winning

I'm running a predictive model to predict the probability of winning a certain item based on the price that I bid (other factors also). After running the model (ols) in R, I wanted to account for all ...
4
votes
2answers
93 views

Statistics on mathematical “data”?

Lets say there is a theoretical relationship you want to prove over all values of some variable. For example, $F(x)$ increases with $x$. You are unable to come up with a general theoretical proof. ...
2
votes
1answer
142 views

How to get started in data-relation algorithms and mathematics?

I am very interested in the concepts and discussions taking place here. However, I'm not entirely sure what this field of study is called or what the many branches of study are being discussed here ...
1
vote
1answer
515 views

How to solve Chuck-a-Luck puzzle

Story (spoilers!) The puzzle: Chuck-a-Luck is a gambling game often played at carnivals and gambling houses. A player may bet on any one of the numbers 1,2,3,4,5,6. Three dice are rolled. ...
10
votes
1answer
337 views

How to predict when the next event occurs, based on times of previous events?

I'm a high school student and I'm working on a computer programming project, but I don't have a lot of experience in statistics and modeling data beyond a high school statistics course so I'm kinda ...
2
votes
2answers
721 views

Identify probability distributions

Given a sample data set of floating point numbers, how do we determine its probability distribution and prove it? Also generate random numbers of the same distributions thereafter.
1
vote
1answer
100 views

Generator and/or interpreter of probability models

Even simple models in probability theory can be quite confusing (e.g. drawing something with or without returning it, conditional probabilities, one and only one outcome, at least one outcome ...
2
votes
1answer
449 views

Is there any relation between Power Law and Negative Binomial distribution?

In a social experiment that I was conducting, I was trying to count the number of people each user contacted in a period of 10 days. The population size was 100 for the experiment. Based on the values ...
2
votes
2answers
154 views

Bayesian model comparison for randomly sampled sets of models

I have two models $M_1$ and $M_2$ that I am using to try and compare to observed data $D$. $M_1$ is an $n_1$-dimensional model, and $M_2$ is an $n_2$-dimensional problem. The Bayes factor $K$ to ...