Validation is the process of assessing whether the results of an analysis are likely to hold outside of the original research setting. DO NOT use this tag for discussing `validity` of a measurement or instrument -- such as that it measures what it purports to.

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Creating a disease severity score/index

I am trying to design a numerical scale which would describe the severity of a certain disease (in this particular case anaphylaxis). I have a set of clinical symptoms and a database of patients who ...
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33 views

multiple linear model validation

Hello I am a beginner in R. I have a dataset of fish and environmental parameters and anthropogenic pressures from 11 lakes. I have modeled some fish parameters (like fish biomass) as function of ...
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1answer
93 views

Does the position at which maximum distance occurs in a KS test make a difference?

From my understanding of the KS test, fromt the CDF of two datasets, it measures the distance between the two distributions at various points and and compares the 'maximum distance' to a predefined ...
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1answer
2k views

What is out of time validation in logistic regression model?

I understand out of sample validation very well. Can you explain what is out of time validation? Context A team in my organization has build a churn model for a teleco. Churn rate is 27%. The models ...
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4answers
903 views

How bad is hyperparameter tuning outside cross-validation?

I know that performing hyperparameter tuning outside of cross-validation can lead to biased-high estimates of external validity, because the dataset that you use to measure performance is the same one ...
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1answer
68 views

What is the name of this validation procedure?

I have a set of classified data. In order to test the precision of several algorithms- I split the data into train and test sets. For the test set I choose at random 30% of the data and the rest is ...
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3answers
1k views

Why isn't the holdout method (splitting data into training and testing) used in classical statistics?

In my classroom exposure to data mining, the holdout method was introduced as a way of assessing model performance. However, when I took my first class on linear models, this was not introduced as a ...
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258 views

Implementing Hopkins and Cox-Lewis index in R

I was trying to implement some clustering tendency tools in R, namely the Hopkin's index and the Cox–Lewis index. Here is the link at page 901 to show what they are This is what I managed to come up ...
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2answers
315 views

How to validate if a sample is independent and identically distributed

How can I check if the data is drawn i.i.d. from an unknown multivariate distribution?
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1answer
3k views

Classification score for Random Forest

I'm learning about the Decision Tree and Random Forests. But there is something I don't really understand. I have a training set and a cross-validation set. I need to train different Random Forests, ...
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652 views

Training/ Test Data with Time Series Model — Forecast with Training Model, or with Model based on Full Data?

Okay, I have a couple books on time series forecasting, but perhaps I need to read a couple more. Here's my question. You want to be able to validate a forecasting model. So you split the data into ...
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1answer
1k views

R times series — correct use of forecast() and accuracy() in forecast package

Cross-posting this from Stack Overflow, because it's a bit of a stats/ technology cross-over. I'm relatively new to R and the forecast package I believe authored by Rob Hyndman. I'm having trouble ...
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1k views

Hold out sample vs. cross validation for time series, and how to perform in R

I think out-of-sample validation testing for accuracy is essential in initially judging what time-series forecasts to use. In any case, I've been doing some reading on the two most common methods, ...
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1answer
81 views

Variable selection and validation dataset

According to Hastie & Tibshirani, we shouldn't use validation datasets to do variable selection; otherwise, we will overestimate the model fit. However, it seems quite often to select variables ...
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2answers
125 views

Validating clustering results with labeled data

I am working on a clustering algorithm and would like to validate its performance against a well-known and used dataset: the KDD-CUP 99 dataset ...
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0answers
58 views

Quantifying the predictive ability of a model developed from a huge data set? (variation of bootstrapping?)

I have a statistical model with around 20 predictor variables, built on 90% of a dataset consisting of over 600k observations. The original developer held out 10% of the original dataset for the ...
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2answers
110 views

Accepted Method for Selecting a Validation Set in Python

Is there an accepted method for separating out a validation set in python? In R I would use the sample function. I have 4000 training instances as json and I want ...
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0answers
787 views

How to interpret the results of bootstrapping and Monte Carlo simulation utilised to test lasso logistic regression results?

My situation: sample size: 116 binary outcome (32 events) number predictors: 42 (both continuous and categorical) predictors did not come from the top of my head; their choice was based on the ...
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0answers
474 views

Fitting Cox Regression / Proportional Hazard Model with x time interaction term in R

I am asking this in the context of wanting to diagnose for violation of proportional hazard assumption and its correction. (Schemper 1992) On p.179 of Hosmer, Lemeshow and May, it says that we can ...
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1answer
342 views

Ignore strata in external validation of stratified Cox prop hazards model?

I've fit a stratified Cox proportional hazards model to some survival data, where I've stratified by a potential confounder which is the batch the data comes from (there are three batches). Now, I'd ...
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1answer
309 views

What does a negative Somers' D say about model discriminative power?

I developed a Cox proportional hazard regression model in R. Then I tried using validate in Professor Harrell's rms package to ...
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1answer
71 views

10-fold cross-validation (high variation)

I am using 10-fold validation method to validate my model. I am using CART model and my sample size $\approx$ 50. Features $\approx$ 9. The 10-fold validated accuracy (averages) is about 76%. However, ...
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3answers
799 views

Performance drop between training and validation datasets

I have been using R's GBM (Gradient Boosting Machine) package for several months. I typically split my data into three partitions: Training, Validation, and Testing. I use the validation data set to ...
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1answer
56 views

How to validate a lognormal random walk for time series data

I am currently working on a project where I need to simulate the prices of a set of $D$ substitutable commodities over time. I was hoping to do this using the following $D$-dimensional lognormal ...
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1answer
2k views

How to use k-fold cross validation in naive bayes classifier?

I'm trying to classify text using naive bayes classifier, and also want to use k-fold cross validation to validate the result of classification. But I'm still confused how to use the k-fold cross ...
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1answer
17 views

what “non-continuous nature of scores” means

1) Can someone explain me the idea of this sentence: "It is noted that nonparametric tests were employed because of the non-continuous nature of the scale scores" (this is related to scale validity ...
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204 views

Validate a Markov Chain with few states (model switching)

Suppose I have a five state Markov chain. The states are observable (in fact I defined them, they are outcomes of an classification algorithm). So I have a long time series, see the first picture. ...
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1answer
62 views

How can one evaluate Incremental Clustering Algorithms, in particular the goodness of the clusters formed?

I have been studying an incremental clustering algorithm for a large set of data that exhibit an inherent dynamic behavior (that is new data can get added over time and some older data may get deleted ...
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12 views

What is the minimal amount of sample runs required for doing a minimum detection limit?

I have to set up an example of how to do an MDL, and the professor wants to know how many times I'd run the samples. My previous class used as little as 8, but I'm not sure if thats correct or if I ...
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423 views

All neural network designs stop because of early stopping in MATLAB

I'm using patternnet for my binary classification in MATLAB and using ...
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1answer
294 views

Validating residual plot count data (different levels)

I am studying the distribution of a marine species using the number of sightings as a dependent variable. When I am trying to validate the plots of the best model I am getting a non-usual pattern, and ...
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1answer
466 views

Out-of-sample vs. test set

Someone asked me if I did out-of-time testing (which I assume is just out-of-sample testing but with a timeline element). But if I have a test set, is that not essentially the same as out-of-sample ...
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0answers
64 views

How to deal with floor effect

I am in the process of validating a five-items scale for measuring dependence on substance 'X'. I have collected data from 98 people who used the substance under consideration at least once weekly for ...
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1answer
154 views

How do you measure the accuracy of an inference hypothesis/procedure?

Take inference to mean reasoning/predicting the value of a hidden/laten variable $Z$ given some evidence/data $X$. For example, maybe you are trying to find out if your patient has Cancer (Z = 1 if he ...
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375 views

How do you validate your machine learning models?

I am wondering what approaches are commonly used for validating machine learning models designed for classification or prediction tasks: Approaches that am using at the moment: Using truth-sets: - ...
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23 views

Derive minimum positive rate of change for co2 data

I have CO2 (in parts per million) data of a closed room. The CO2 data is recorded along with timestamps. Typical difference between two samples is around five minutes. My aim is to find occupancy of ...
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2answers
143 views

The size of the sample for split validation

At this moment I have a dataset with 4000 samples (50% positive and 50% negative). Normally I would do cross validation for this approach, however besides normal data mining techniques I am also ...
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2answers
4k views

Logistic Regression Model Validation

I am validating a logistic regression model. This is the first time i am validating a model. I am using split sampling method. I have split data randomly into two parts - 70% development and 30% ...
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5answers
9k views

Hold-out validation vs. cross-validation

To me, it seems that hold-out validation is useless. That is, splitting the original dataset into two-parts (training and testing) and using the testing score as a generalization measure, is somewhat ...
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1answer
98 views

Is the statistical significance of a regression meaningful if it has poor out of sample performance?

I want to determine the significance of a particular variable, among many confounders. If I fit a model on the training set and observe a small p value, should I discard the model because it ...
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81 views

Validation - correctly compare and validated imputation models

I've seen a lot of interesting questions here about multiple imputation and also great answers that helped me a lot to impute my data. I've used Predictive Mean Matching, EMB and I would like to use ...
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152 views

Are world cup predictions testable?

As of today, dozens of soccer world cup predictions exist, some more complex, some more elegant, and most of them predict every nation's "chance" of winning a particular match/ the cup. As I am ...
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2answers
619 views

Internal validation via bootstrap: What ROC curve to present?

I am using the bootstrap approach for internal validation of a multivariate model built with either standard logistic regression OR elastic net. The procedure I use is as follows: 1) build model ...
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1answer
62 views

Computing predicition intervals with cross-validation?

I'm using a k-fold (10-fold) cross-validation while building a model. I'm only using it to get an estimate of the out-of-sample error, not to pick a model from candidates. For example, if I have 30 ...
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2answers
154 views

Split train//validation/test sets by time, is it correct?

Here's the scenario, slightly altered to a common one. Credit card fraud, payments for the last 12 months (a rolling window). Train with the data from the first 10 months, validate with data from the ...
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22 views

On which data should the lift be calculated i.e. Training set or Test set and why?

On which data should the lift be calculated i.e. Training set or Test set and why? What does the lift value 115% mean
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66 views

How would you validate a random walk model?

I have used a random walk model and Gibbs sampling (more specifically RJAGS) in order to obtain posterior of the state given the observations. In this case the state is the true proportion of the ...
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1answer
48 views

use of validation set on lasso cross validation

When training a model a train, a validation and test set are used. I was wondering if there is any paper or example that proves that the use of an independent validation set increase the performance ...
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1answer
184 views

Cross-validation for Comparing Clustering Techniques

I'm working on comparing multiple clustering algorithms to each other using the adjusted Rand index for a given dataset. We have a gold standard that we'd like to compare the obtained clustering ...
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100 views

The effect of oversampling on the positive predictive value

I need to calculate the positive predictive value for a validation set for a rare event. The problem is that the validation set was oversampled for the rare event. The event occurs in 5 percent of the ...