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### Variance on the sum of predicted values from a mixed effect model on a timeseries

I have a mixed effect model (in fact a generalized additive mixed model) that gives me predictions for a timeseries. To counter the autocorrelation, I use a corCAR1 model, given the fact I have ...
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### Negative binomial regression question - is it a poor model?

I am reading a very interesting article by Sellers and Shmueli on regression models for count data. Near the beginning (p. 944) they cite McCullaugh and Nelder (1989) saying that negative binomial ...
I'm fitting a Bayesian HLM in JAGS using k-fold cross-validation (k=5). I'd like to know whether estimates of parameter $\beta$ are stable across all folds. What's the best way to do this? One idea ...