meta user
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| bio | website | luxspes.blogspot.com |
|---|---|---|
| location | ||
| age | ||
| visits | member for | 11 months |
| seen | Apr 23 at 10:05 | |
| stats | profile views | 5 |
I am a software developer... I am certified (MCP) in WindowsForms.NET, ASP.NET and ADO.NET (with C#) and I really like .NET (I specially love LINQ)...
I sometimes blog at Javamexico or at my personal blogspot. I also tweet ocasionally
I also know how to code in Java (I love Hibernate,and I love Spring-Mvc but I think for the web the future is in JSF with Seam... and for SmartClients XAML... but perhaps Flex will give a good fight) , I know a little of Delphi... and I have worked with Oracle and SQLServer...
The best web technology that I have used is WebObjects (sadly IMHO Apple just doesn't seem to know its value) I think SQL is full of flaws... I used to believe the only way to go is to use an ORM and I really disliked plain ADO.NET and JDBC, I used to think that to build the business rules of a software system.. there was nothing better than Domain Model pattern... built with Apple's EOF... or Hibernate (or NHibernate or LINQ & EntityFramework). But lately, after reading TheThirdManifesto, I have been thinking that relational is not limited, it is underexploited, and perhaps Alphora Dataphor or Rel will finally exploit its power.
I am also certified in TFS 2010, and I know my way around CVS, SVN, Mercurial, Bazaar and a little Git
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Jul 30 |
accepted | How to estimate storage needs using the PERT distribution for filesizes? How to aggregate them without falling into the flaw of extremes? |
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Jul 30 |
accepted | Dealing with project uncertainties: is the sum of the most-likely estimates equal to the sum of the expected times? |
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Jul 22 |
comment |
Dealing with project uncertainties: is the sum of the most-likely estimates equal to the sum of the expected times? Interesting... yes, dedicated time from the resource is counted as effort...So... if this approach is not such a good idea... would you please point me in the direction of a better approach? |
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Jul 22 |
comment |
Dealing with project uncertainties: is the sum of the most-likely estimates equal to the sum of the expected times? And, what about the file storage estimation? Should that be done using this formula for a sum of estimates? |
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Jul 22 |
comment |
Dealing with project uncertainties: is the sum of the most-likely estimates equal to the sum of the expected times? So, while would be a bad idea to use it for scheduling (because the tasks are not independent, and if one ends later, it affects the other tasks depending on it), would it be appropriate to use it for effort? if we disregard project manager's pessimism or optimism, from an effort perspective, tasks are not "linked" ¿correct? |
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Jul 22 |
comment |
Dealing with project uncertainties: is the sum of the most-likely estimates equal to the sum of the expected times? @PeterEllis so, to put it in your words: "D is the estimated time to complete the tasks on the critical path, based on the confidence interval specified in Z" |
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Jul 22 |
awarded | Commentator |
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Jul 22 |
comment |
Dealing with project uncertainties: is the sum of the most-likely estimates equal to the sum of the expected times? For 90% confidence in the duration, Z would have to have a value of 1.281, for 75% a value of 0.675 (you can see the values in Table 2 – Cumulative Probabilities of a Normal Distribution in the linked article) |
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Jul 22 |
revised |
Dealing with project uncertainties: is the sum of the most-likely estimates equal to the sum of the expected times? added 90 characters in body |
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Jul 22 |
comment |
Dealing with project uncertainties: is the sum of the most-likely estimates equal to the sum of the expected times? It is the project’s duration at a desired level of confidence "Z", such as 90% |
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Jul 22 |
revised |
Dealing with project uncertainties: is the sum of the most-likely estimates equal to the sum of the expected times? added 363 characters in body; edited tags |
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Jul 22 |
asked | Dealing with project uncertainties: is the sum of the most-likely estimates equal to the sum of the expected times? |
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Jul 9 |
revised |
How to estimate storage needs using the PERT distribution for filesizes? How to aggregate them without falling into the flaw of extremes? added 674 characters in body; edited tags |
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Jul 9 |
comment |
How to estimate storage needs using the PERT distribution for filesizes? How to aggregate them without falling into the flaw of extremes? Would you kindly explain why I am getting a different answer with: $Quantile[Table[Fold[Plus,0,RandomVariate[PERTDistribution[.25,5,1],40000]],10000],0.964]$ |
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Jul 9 |
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How to estimate storage needs using the PERT distribution for filesizes? How to aggregate them without falling into the flaw of extremes? Are you reading the updated question? The Result is 61Gb NOT 128Gb you can do it yourself just write: $Quantile[Table[Fold[Plus,0,RandomVariate[PERTDistribution[.25,5,1],40000]],10000],0.964]$ |
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Jul 9 |
comment |
How to estimate storage needs using the PERT distribution for filesizes? How to aggregate them without falling into the flaw of extremes? That was not your answer, what you wrote was: "If you specify 128GB of storage you will have a 0.964 chance of your storage not being exceeded" But, it turns out, that I only need 61GB to achieve that... ¿care to explain why the simulation gives such a different result? |
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Jul 9 |
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How to estimate storage needs using the PERT distribution for filesizes? How to aggregate them without falling into the flaw of extremes? Sorry @image_doctor but it appears that you were wrong, theres is a big difference between generate the 40,000 file sizes, 10,000 times and the current answer...(see the changes in the question) |
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Jul 9 |
revised |
How to estimate storage needs using the PERT distribution for filesizes? How to aggregate them without falling into the flaw of extremes? added 775 characters in body |
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Jul 9 |
revised |
How to estimate storage needs using the PERT distribution for filesizes? How to aggregate them without falling into the flaw of extremes? deleted 30 characters in body |
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Jul 8 |
comment |
How to estimate storage needs using the PERT distribution for filesizes? How to aggregate them without falling into the flaw of extremes? For example, I could generate the 40,000 file sizes, 1000 times, and analize the resulting 1000 total file sizes (using something like $Table[RandomVariate[PERTDistribution[{0, 1}, 0.5], sampleSize], {i, numOfSamples}];$ But... ¿should I? |
