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comment Are models identified by auto.arima() parsimonious?
@forecaster You should accept one of the answers to this question.
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comment Timeseries analysis procedure and methods using R
@forecaster Also, I'd love for you to check out my cv.ts package on github and leave me feedback on it. I want time series cross-validation to be easy!
Mar
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comment Timeseries analysis procedure and methods using R
@forecaster Thank you! Notice that ets chose the random walk model as well. At the end of the day I agree: the random walk model is the most appropriate for the data. (the "naive" model is essentially the same as the "random walk" model)
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revised Timeseries analysis procedure and methods using R
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Mar
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revised Timeseries analysis procedure and methods using R
added theta forecasts, removed some mod_