Michael Bishop

1,231 reputation

617

bio	website	michaelmbishop.github.com
	location	Chicago, IL
	age
visits	member for	2 years, 3 months
	seen	May 22 at 21:17
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phd student in sociology, novice programmer. your assistance is sincerely appreciated. seriously, the existence of stackoverflow is inspiring.

	1,231 reputation	bio	website	michaelmbishop.github.com	visits	member for	2 years, 3 months
617 badges		location	Chicago, IL		seen	May 22 at 21:17

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May 28	awarded	Good Answer
May 18	awarded	Necromancer
May 16	awarded	Notable Question
Apr 3	comment	Multiple linear regression We can't tell you if the model is "right" or not without more information about the goals for your analysis. Perhaps you want to describe what you think the output of the regression mean and people can offer confirmation or correction.
Apr 3	revised	Multiple linear regression edited tags
Mar 26	comment	Theoretical objections to hypothesis testing See: stats.stackexchange.com/q/10510/3748
Mar 17	comment	Inclusion of lagged dependent variable in regression what do you hope to achieve with your model? Maximizing R-squared is rarely a good model-selection criteria.
Mar 16	awarded	Yearling
Mar 8	comment	R statistics output interpretation : ebook As @Penguin_Knight hints at, I think your main issue is understanding statistics, after which you can decide which R output is useful. Narrow your question to receive specific help.
Mar 8	comment	how to find the probability I have a couple confusions. To start, you say "For every row i transmit 9 packets and this is fixed..." but this seems to conflict with the fact that you say that a packet is represented by "1" and a missing packet by "0" which would indicate a lot more potential packets per row.
Mar 8	answered	What method can be used to correlate variables
Feb 21	answered	Introductory book for multivariate statistics
Feb 14	comment	Omitted variable bias in linear regression You are correct to be concerned. A lot of inference is based on the assumption that we have the true model. I've been running regressions a long time and I've never had the true model. For my purposes it rarely makes sense to even think that one true model exists. Instead, ask yourself what the goals of your modelling are (prediction in sample, prediction out of sample, estimating the average causal effect of x3, data summary, etc.) because your goals will indicate which modelling strategies are best.
Feb 13	accepted	what distributions could help describe my uncertainty about a probabilistic forecast?
Feb 12	comment	what distributions could help describe my uncertainty about a probabilistic forecast? So I guess I need to play around with beta distribution parameters. Find the parameters that I like for a 0.5 forecast, a 0.25 forecast, 0.1, 0.05 and 0, and then find some smooth functions to interpolate my guesses at what the parameters alpha and beta should be for the space between?
Feb 12	comment	what distributions could help describe my uncertainty about a probabilistic forecast? Thanks Peter! This is helpful, though I fear I fear I still wasn't clear enough... My "expert" is actually only telling me their single best guess for the binary event occurring. I've seen (but not recorded) a bunch of the expert's past best guesses so I have an intuitive sense for what the true distribution of the probability of the events are conditional on an expert's best guess.
Feb 12	revised	what distributions could help describe my uncertainty about a probabilistic forecast? more clarity
Feb 11	revised	what distributions could help describe my uncertainty about a probabilistic forecast? added clarification
Feb 11	comment	what distributions could help describe my uncertainty about a probabilistic forecast? oh, when I speak of multiple probability forecasts, they are independent. I only have one data point for each forecasting problem.
Feb 11	comment	what distributions could help describe my uncertainty about a probabilistic forecast? Thanks Glen, I had considered the beta... I guess I'm a bit stuck on how to turn this vector of probability forecasts into parameters for the beta.