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My question seems to be very trivial, but I'm still stuck with it. It's about probability calculations. Suppose you have a number of people that take a glass of water (event), time between 2 events is known (intervals) and events are not independent. I want to calculate probability of a person taking a glass of water in the next 20 minutes (number of minutes can vary) after the last event. I tried to use:

Probability = (number of intervals > i and < i + 20 minutes)/number of all intervals

where i = 0, 1, 2, 3, ...seconds

However, my probability tends to decrease with time, however I expect it to rise. Could someone please advice me on it.

My question seems to be very trivial, but I'm still stuck with it. It's about probability calculations. Suppose you have a number of people that take a glass of water (event), time between 2 events is known (intervals). I want to calculate probability of a person taking a glass of water in the next 20 minutes (number of minutes can vary) after the last event. I tried to use:

Probability = (number of intervals > i and < i + 20 minutes)/number of all intervals

where i = 0, 1, 2, 3, ...seconds

However, my probability tends to decrease with time, however I expect it to rise. Could someone please advice me on it.

My question seems to be very trivial, but I'm still stuck with it. It's about probability calculations. Suppose you have a number of people that take a glass of water (event), time between 2 events is known (intervals) and events are not independent. I want to calculate probability of a person taking a glass of water in the next 20 minutes (number of minutes can vary) after the last event. I tried to use:

Probability = (number of intervals > i and < i + 20 minutes)/number of all intervals

where i = 0, 1, 2, 3, ...seconds

However, my probability tends to decrease with time, however I expect it to rise. Could someone please advice me on it.

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