I am building a model for a Monte Carlo simulation that estimates the number of sales made for a door-to-door salesman.

Looking at his historic success by city, it seems he converts about 80% +/- 20% and the histogram looks like a bell curve.

From which distribution do I draw my "random conversion rate" to accurately reflect what I see? How did you determine the correct distribution?

I have tried using a normal distribution, but sometimes the random draw is larger than 1. I could "cap" it at 1, but it seems that there must be a better way!

I am building a model for a Monte Carlo simulation that estimates the number of sales made by a door-to-door salesman.

Looking at his historic success by city, he converts about 80% +/- 20%, and the histogram looks like a bell curve.

From which distribution do I draw my "random conversion rate" to accurately reflect what I see? How did you determine the correct distribution?

I have tried using a normal distribution, but sometimes the random draw is larger than 1. I could "cap" it at 1, but there must be a better way!

I am building a Monte Carlo model that estimates the number of sales made for a door-to-door salesman.

Looking at his historic success by city, it seems he converts about 80% +/- 20% and the histogram looks like a bell curve.

From which distribution do I draw my "random conversion rate" to accurately reflect what I see? How did you determine the correct distribution?

I have tried using a normal distribution, but sometimes the random draw is larger than 1. I could "cap" it at 1, but it seems that there must be a better way!

I am building a model for a Monte Carlo simulation that estimates the number of sales made for a door-to-door salesman.

Looking at his historic success by city, it seems he converts about 80% +/- 20% and the histogram looks like a bell curve.

From which distribution do I draw my "random conversion rate" to accurately reflect what I see? How did you determine the correct distribution?

I have tried using a normal distribution, but sometimes the random draw is larger than 1. I could "cap" it at 1, but it seems that there must be a better way!