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Nov 9 at 0:40 answer added awhug timeline score: 0
May 13, 2022 at 17:13 history protected kjetil b halvorsen
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Jan 25, 2012 at 12:44 vote accept Thomas Browne
Jan 24, 2012 at 14:10 history edited user88 CC BY-SA 3.0
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Jan 23, 2012 at 19:14 comment added whuber Not silly at all. Merely asking this question reflects a high level of thought. I was just checking my own understanding of your question to make sure you got an effective answer. Cheers.
Jan 23, 2012 at 19:11 comment added Thomas Browne right..... simple as that. Thanks. I feel a bit silly now haha.
Jan 23, 2012 at 19:06 comment added whuber The reason for including a term for a safe rate of return is that sometimes it will have a nonzero coefficient. Presumably, safe instruments (overnight bank deposits) are available to everyone at low cost, so anyone ignoring this as a component of their investment basket could be choosing suboptimal combinations. Now, if the coefficients do not add to unity, so what? Just invest as much as you wish in the proportions estimated by the regression.
Jan 23, 2012 at 18:49 comment added Thomas Browne It does because if you model this you will find that B1 + B2 + B3 > 1 in many cases (or < 1 in others). That is because the currency one is trying to replicate with the descriptors will typically have a larger or smaller volatility than the others, and so the regression will give you smaller or larger weights in response. This requires the investor either not to be fully invested, or to leverage, which I do not want. As for safe rate of return no. All we are trying to do is replicate series1 using other variables. Being a finance guy and not a statistician perhaps I have misnamed my question.
Jan 23, 2012 at 17:12 answer added Elvis timeline score: 45
Jan 23, 2012 at 17:03 comment added whuber Are you sure this is a constrained regression problem? As I read the question, you seek a relationship of the form $y_4$ (one Forex series) = $\beta_1 y_1 + \beta_2 y_2 + \beta_3 y_3$ (plus, I presume, a fourth term representing a prevailing safe rate of return). That's independent of the investment decision. If a customer wants to invest $c$ capital in $y_4$ using $y_1$, $y_2$, and $y_3$ as proxies, then they would just invest $c\beta_1$ in $y_1$, $c\beta_2$ in $y_2$, and $c\beta_3$ in $y_3$. That adds no special complication to the regression, does it?
Jan 23, 2012 at 16:42 history asked Thomas Browne CC BY-SA 3.0