Skip to main content
Wagen, not Wagon
Source Link
Mike Lawrence
  • 14k
  • 9
  • 47
  • 72

I'm hesitant to answer this. These Frequentist vs. Bayesian spats are generally unproductive, and can be nasty and juvenile. For what it's worth, WagonmakersWagenmakers is kind of a big deal, whereas largely forgotten 3k+ year old Chinese philosophers on the other hand...

However, I would argue that the standard Frequentist interpretation of a 50% confidence interval is not that you should be 50% confident the true value lies within the interval, or that there is a 50% probability that it does. Rather, the idea is simply that, if the same process were repeated indefinitely, the percentage of CI's that included the true value would converge to 50%. For any given single interval, however, the probability that it includes the true value is either 0 or 1, but you don't know which.

I'm hesitant to answer this. These Frequentist vs. Bayesian spats are generally unproductive, and can be nasty and juvenile. For what it's worth, Wagonmakers is kind of a big deal, whereas largely forgotten 3k+ year old Chinese philosophers on the other hand...

However, I would argue that the standard Frequentist interpretation of a 50% confidence interval is not that you should be 50% confident the true value lies within the interval, or that there is a 50% probability that it does. Rather, the idea is simply that, if the same process were repeated indefinitely, the percentage of CI's that included the true value would converge to 50%. For any given single interval, however, the probability that it includes the true value is either 0 or 1, but you don't know which.

I'm hesitant to answer this. These Frequentist vs. Bayesian spats are generally unproductive, and can be nasty and juvenile. For what it's worth, Wagenmakers is kind of a big deal, whereas largely forgotten 3k+ year old Chinese philosophers on the other hand...

However, I would argue that the standard Frequentist interpretation of a 50% confidence interval is not that you should be 50% confident the true value lies within the interval, or that there is a 50% probability that it does. Rather, the idea is simply that, if the same process were repeated indefinitely, the percentage of CI's that included the true value would converge to 50%. For any given single interval, however, the probability that it includes the true value is either 0 or 1, but you don't know which.

Source Link
gung - Reinstate Monica
  • 147.5k
  • 89
  • 406
  • 716

I'm hesitant to answer this. These Frequentist vs. Bayesian spats are generally unproductive, and can be nasty and juvenile. For what it's worth, Wagonmakers is kind of a big deal, whereas largely forgotten 3k+ year old Chinese philosophers on the other hand...

However, I would argue that the standard Frequentist interpretation of a 50% confidence interval is not that you should be 50% confident the true value lies within the interval, or that there is a 50% probability that it does. Rather, the idea is simply that, if the same process were repeated indefinitely, the percentage of CI's that included the true value would converge to 50%. For any given single interval, however, the probability that it includes the true value is either 0 or 1, but you don't know which.