i have been trying to do the forecasting model. My data has daily value and there is annual seasonality and probably weekly. My question is which model will be the best. I have tried with SARiMA but i think it is not good enough for annual seasonality in this case(too long period) ? Maybe ARMA + fourier would be better ? The second case is that this data is strongly correlated with weather. Can i use for example SARiMAX with additional variable or VAR model? If someone has met with such data, I would be grateful for the hint which model will be good.
Below attached data chart
This is short example of code:
y <- msts(dane2$value, seasonal.periods=c(1,7,365.25)) fit <- tbats(y) fc <- forecast(fit) plot(fc)
I would like to get more accurate results. Every idea will be appreciate !