Time series (yearly figures) below and I use R to fit it withan ARIMA model to a time series (yearly granularity):
library(forecast)
beer <- c(150,241,361,403,504,684,706,862,879,806,840,846,1024,1196,1239,1237,1281,1342)
ts_beer = ts(beer, start = c(1980), frequency = 1)
dif.ts_beer <- diff(ts_beer)
acf(dif.ts_beer)
pacf(dif.ts_beer)
Based on the ACF and PACF, I make itfit an ARIMA(4,0,4) model.
dif.ts_beer.fit <- arima(dif.Gas, order = c(4,0,4))
dif.ts_beer.fit
It looks okOK. But whenthen I run auto.arimaauto.arima
:
auto.arima(dif.ts_beer)
It gives:
Series: dif.ts_beer
ARIMA(0,0,0) with non-zero mean
Coefficients:
mean
70.1176
s.e. 17.0359
sigma^2 estimated as 5242: log likelihood=-96.4
AIC=196.81 AICc=197.67 BIC=198.48
So the manual ARIMA(4,0,4) is not a good choice for this case? If so, what parameters shall be given to the ARIMA(p,d,q) model should I use?
Thank you.