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Mar 31, 2020 at 18:00 comment added whuber Leonidas, there's merely a typo here: both sides of the equation should be conditioned on $X_0=2,$ not just the left side.
Mar 31, 2020 at 16:51 comment added Leonidas If I'm not mistaken, the counter example I posted below disproves this. I believe the issue with your suggestion is that the new stochastic process defined by combining states 3 and 4 into one does not necessarily satisfy the Markov property.
Mar 31, 2020 at 8:10 history answered Ben CC BY-SA 4.0