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Timeline for Bishop equation 3.67

Current License: CC BY-SA 4.0

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Jul 6, 2021 at 16:34 comment added microhaus @DancingIceCream. [...] In that $p(\mathcal{M}_i \vert \mathcal{D}, \mathbf{x})$ may make mathematical sense, and your derivation is correct; but it may not respect standard model selection procedure to additionally condition on $\mathbf{x}$ when computing the model posterior probability $p(\mathcal{M}_i \vert \mathcal{D})$. Without having looked at whether $\mathbf{x}$ is a test-data point or validation-data point, I cannot be sure of this currently. Perhaps I will edit when I get time to revisit the chapter.
Jul 6, 2021 at 16:33 comment added microhaus @DancingIceCream. Without refreshing my memory of that chapter of Bishop, I can think of two possibilities. Either the model choice $\mathcal{M}_i$ is conditionally independent of $\mathbf{x}$ given the training data set $\mathcal{D}$, meaning that $p(\mathcal{M}_i \vert \mathcal{D}, \mathbf{x}) = p(\mathcal{M}_i \vert \mathcal{D})$. In this case your derivation is correct. The other possibility is that your derivation is correct mathematically, but does not respect the semantics of the model selection procedure.[...]
Jul 6, 2021 at 15:54 comment added DancingIceCream Thanks, but I don't understand the last equality. If I employ the algebra I show in my post I won't get the same answer as you.
Jul 6, 2021 at 15:50 history answered microhaus CC BY-SA 4.0