Timeline for Misconceptions about the Meaning of Confidence Intervals
Current License: CC BY-SA 4.0
11 events
| when toggle format | what | by | license | comment | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 18 at 12:47 | comment | added | Firebug | This is really a philosophical question. Was the number already chosen? If so, it's 1 or 0. If you want to talk about the long run probability of being right (assuming you can repeat the experiment indefinitely), it'll converge to 1/6 | |
| Jul 18 at 10:01 | comment | added | Surm | Graham Bornholt, Suppose box has a number between 1 to 6 chosen randomly, but no one knows what it is yet. Someone guesses that it would be "4". What is the probability that the guess is right? | |
| Jul 18 at 9:56 | comment | added | Graham Bornholt | "You can only say it is right or wrong after learning the true value." Not true: Whether a guess is the right or wrong answer does not depend on your personal state of knowledge. | |
| Jul 18 at 9:51 | comment | added | Surm | Firebug, what is the probability of my guess "4" being right? Can you say it is 100% or 0% without knowing the true value? On the other hand, can you say the "4" has a 1/6 probability of being right? Let me put it in another way. A box has a number between 1 to 6 chosen randomly, but no one knows what it is yet. I make a guess that it is "4". Would you disagree that my guess of "4" has a 1/6 probability to match the number that was in the box? | |
| Jul 18 at 9:43 | comment | added | Firebug | "Now, if I ask you the probability of your guess being correct, wouldn't you say it is 1/6?" the probability of being correct when guessing any face is 1/6. The probability that any single face is correct is either 0 or 1. | |
| Jul 18 at 9:10 | comment | added | Surm | You can only say it is right or wrong after learning the true value. Before knowing the true value, each guess has a probability to be right or wrong. Isn't this correct? | |
| Jul 18 at 9:01 | comment | added | Graham Bornholt | Your guess is either right or wrong, so if forced to make a probability assessment I would say 0 or 1. As mentioned in my final paragraph, the Bayesian approach models personal uncertainty as a posterior probability. | |
| Jul 18 at 8:51 | comment | added | Surm | Suppose a box has a random number between 1 to 6. I invite you to make a guess. You guess "5". Now, if I ask you the probability of your guess being correct, wouldn't you say it is 1/6? | |
| Jul 18 at 8:48 | comment | added | Surm | When I guess "4", if I don't know the outcome of the die roll, just like I don't know the population mean, isn't it fair me to say that my guess has a probability of 1/6 to be right? | |
| Jul 18 at 8:44 | history | edited | Graham Bornholt | CC BY-SA 4.0 |
added 329 characters in body
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| Jul 18 at 8:38 | history | answered | Graham Bornholt | CC BY-SA 4.0 |