Timeline for Given probability x, how likely is it that probability y is due to chance?
Current License: CC BY-SA 3.0
18 events
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| Jan 1, 2014 at 0:57 | comment | added | tomka | @RobBerkes If you could identify this pattern in other texts written by hand at that time, it would point to the fact that the language Voynich used is actual a 'real' one and not just fantasy. | |
| Dec 31, 2013 at 23:33 | comment | added | Rob Berkes | If interested, I've now done the first 78 pages and the stats are holding. 23.2% of all words are unique, but 73% of the first words of each page (57/78) are unique. Interestingly, the second word of each page is only unique 24% of the time, right at the average. | |
| Dec 31, 2013 at 23:25 | comment | added | Rob Berkes | Thanks, my memories on significant digits aren't as good as they need to be, hehe. I agree with the typesetting idea as an explanation, at the least it needs to be investigated, I'd need to look at the original manuscript, I'm just using ascii transliterations right now. | |
| Dec 31, 2013 at 17:20 | comment | added | tomka | @whuber I thought about it a bit more: isn't the issue here that I assumed (and approximated) a finite population by assuming sampling from an infinite population, whereas one would need to use hypergeometric if the population is small enough to be regarded as finite? That is, as the population size (words of the full text) grows, one could use my 'approximation' with less 'error', but hypergeometric would be more exact. | |
| Dec 31, 2013 at 15:15 | comment | added | whuber♦ | That is correct: changing a p-value that is already less than $10^{-10}$ by an order of magnitude will not change any conclusions. I was motivated to add that comment because it might help readers who are addressing the same problem but with different numbers; in some cases the distinctions I made will be important. | |
| Dec 31, 2013 at 15:08 | comment | added | tomka | @whuber +1 Thanks, adds a lot! Though the p-value is changed, the conclusion would perhaps not change (p<.0001 in all cases). | |
| Dec 31, 2013 at 15:03 | comment | added | tomka | I actually thought a bit about why this might happen and with what sorts of texts. Independent from the info you gave I thought that it might be a typesetting issue, in the sense that short words like 'a', 'the' (= not unique) etc often end up at the lower page and new pages are started with a longer word, which often are nouns etc, but more often unique. When writing the manuscript by hand Voynich might have done so willingly or intuitively. | |
| Dec 31, 2013 at 15:01 | comment | added | whuber♦ |
(+1) In rounding $1041/3742$ to $0.27$ you destroy all but the most significant digit in your probability(!), which should equal $1.116\times 10^{-10}$. It may also be worth noting that we should interpret your "If we regard" as an approximation to the true probability indicated by your model, which is of sampling without replacement. The sample consists of the 44 initial words out of the population of 3742 words. This lowers the answer to $8.41\times 10^{-11}$ as computed by phyper(32, 1041, 3742-1041, 44, lower.tail=FALSE).
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| Dec 31, 2013 at 13:43 | comment | added | Rob Berkes | awesome, thank you! I will start looking at the pbinom function right away. The word list I'm looking at is the Voynich manuscript, btw ... | |
| Dec 31, 2013 at 13:23 | vote | accept | Rob Berkes | ||
| Dec 31, 2013 at 13:20 | history | edited | tomka | CC BY-SA 3.0 |
fixed logical flaw
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| S Dec 31, 2013 at 12:38 | history | suggested | Paul | CC BY-SA 3.0 |
spelling binomial and probability
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| Dec 31, 2013 at 12:37 | review | Suggested edits | |||
| S Dec 31, 2013 at 12:38 | |||||
| Dec 31, 2013 at 11:55 | history | edited | tomka | CC BY-SA 3.0 |
added 152 characters in body
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| Dec 31, 2013 at 11:48 | history | edited | tomka | CC BY-SA 3.0 |
added 152 characters in body
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| Dec 31, 2013 at 11:37 | history | edited | tomka | CC BY-SA 3.0 |
added 16 characters in body
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| Dec 31, 2013 at 11:30 | history | edited | tomka | CC BY-SA 3.0 |
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| Dec 31, 2013 at 11:24 | history | answered | tomka | CC BY-SA 3.0 |