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There is a question in my study group that we would like some help answering:

In a trial that was conducted the P value was calculated as 0.05 exactly. What are the chances that if the trial was completed in exactly the same way, that the P value with be greater than 0.05?
a. 1%
b. 10%
c. 50%
d. 95%
e. 99%

Justifications:
c) The actual p-value is irrelevant. If the conditions are exactly the same, then it is 50/50 as to whether the result will be higher or lower.
d) If the null hypothesis is true then there is a 5% chance of having an as-extreme or more extreme result; therefore a 95% chance of having a less-extreme result.

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Seems to me that the MCQ question cannot be answered with any singular value. Both of your justifications are true, and there is no way to know whether the null is true or false.

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  • $\begingroup$ Thanks, these are remembered questions so there may be some key information missing that would indicate one or the other. $\endgroup$
    – cjdbarlow
    Jan 29, 2020 at 7:39

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