There is a question in my study group that we would like some help answering:
In a trial that was conducted the P value was calculated as 0.05 exactly. What are the chances that if the trial was completed in exactly the same way, that the P value with be greater than 0.05?
a. 1%
b. 10%
c. 50%
d. 95%
e. 99%
Justifications:
c) The actual p-value is irrelevant. If the conditions are exactly the same, then it is 50/50 as to whether the result will be higher or lower.
d) If the null hypothesis is true then there is a 5% chance of having an as-extreme or more extreme result; therefore a 95% chance of having a less-extreme result.