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I am looking at some software code that performs conditioning on random variables. For example, one can have a set of random variables which have a multivariate normal distribution associated with them and then you can condition on a given variable to take on a certain value and then get the associated conditional distribution for the rest of the variables.

Now, I notice that distributions which are univariate do not have this method implemented. But for the sake of completeness, for example for a univariate Gaussian when we actually observe that the variable takes on a certain value, shouldn't the conditional distribution be a point mass with zero variance?

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    $\begingroup$ @Luca said: "for example for a univariate Gaussian when we actually observe that the variable takes on a certain value, shouldn't the conditional distribution be a point mass with zero variance?". No. The observed value is just one of the possible realizations of the r.v. It doesn't determine its distribution. $\endgroup$
    – Zen
    Commented Feb 23, 2014 at 0:43
  • $\begingroup$ @Zen: Thanks for the answer. I guess the conditional probability does only make sense when thinking of a joint distribution over a set of random variables. $\endgroup$
    – Luca
    Commented Feb 23, 2014 at 1:13
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    $\begingroup$ See stats.stackexchange.com/a/584907/919 for a software solution. $\endgroup$
    – whuber
    Commented Aug 22, 2023 at 13:47

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Let $X$ be a random variable with density function $f(x)$. You ask about the conditional distribution of $X$ given that $X=x$. And, intuitively, since there is no uncertainty left, we now simply know the value of $X$, the conditional distribution is a probability atom of 1 at $x$ (contradicting the comment by @Zen).

Some details. Since we cannot conditioning directly on an event of probability 1, take first a small region containing $x$ and denote it $dx$. Then $$ \DeclareMathOperator{\P}{\mathbb{P}} \P(X \in dx \mid X \in E) = \frac{\P(X \in dx \cap X \in E)}{\P(X \in E)} = \\ \frac{\P(X \in E \cap dx)}{\P(X \in E)} $$ and in the density case, shrinking $dx$ to $x$, in the limit we get the conditional density $$ \frac{f(x)}{\P(X \in E)} $$ Now, if we take $E = dx$, the quotient is 1, and in the limit shrinking $dx$ to $x$ we get a probability atom at $x$.

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  • $\begingroup$ I had to do a double-take on the notation $X \in dx$, but I see it is an element of the tangent space. $\endgroup$
    – Galen
    Commented Aug 21, 2023 at 23:08

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