I am writing thesis about predicting which corporate takeover targets attract a competing bidder. I first estimated a model using a logistic regression. The sample consists of 1350 single-bidder targets and 51 multiple-bidder targets.
I want to test the predictive ability with a holdout sample and use this prediction to construct a portfolio that generates more returns than the market (CAR); however this holdout sample has 250 single-bidder targets and only 13 multiple-bidder targets.
- Does it matter for the holdout sample that the number of multiple-bidder target is so small?
- Would a "leave-one-out-cross-validation" (LOOCV) be superior to the holdout sample to test the predictive ability? i.e. not model accuracy
- How I can do a "leave one out cross validation" (LOOCV) using spss?