# Given time series data, how to model the frequency of someone changes his job?

I am given a time series data vector (ordered by months and years),which contains only 0s and 1s. 1 s represent a person changes his job at a particular a month.

Questions: What model can i use to determine model how frequently this person change his job ? In addition, this model should be able to predict the probability of this person changing his in the next 6 months.

A poisson process ? (I have studied poisson process before however I have no idea when and how to apply it). Any assumptions that data need to meet before applying the poisson process ?

Would love to gather more information on how to model something like this. Thanks

• Yes. I agree with what you said. But I kept asking myself which interval distribution to use ? And from the data I have, 29 12 24 14 27 9 17 58 is the list of number of month between events. (Events = this person changes his job). To be honest, you can pick "exponential", "normal", "inv Gamma".... to be the interval distribution. So my question is: Based on what criteria do we choose the interval distribution? – user1769197 Jul 17 '14 at 16:42