I have daily sales data from 2011 to 2013. I have to do prediction for 2014.I have used arima and exponential method to predict the daily sale, but it is not giving the better result. MAPE is around 25%.
y=ts(x,frequency=7)
fit <- auto.arima(y)
fc <- forecast(fit, h=265)
plot(fc)
fit <- ets(y)
fc <- forecast(fit,h=265)
Below is the link for data:
https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B5en_TDcZWi3QWNjMzd3ZkdIcW8/edit?usp=sharing
Is there a way to improve the MAPE? I am new to time series,I would appreciate any kind of help.