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I'm working on modeling sales for tickets for a specific event over time. The issue that I'm having is that the inventory does not replenish, so I can't have my model predicting over what I actually have available. So for example, if I have 100 tickets available 30 days out and 20 sell, the remaining pool I have to sell from is only 80 tickets, so I can't predict to sell 90 tickets the next day because the original 100 tickets aren't all available any more.

Is there a way to take this into consideration when building a model?

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if you have history from previous events, could you look at sell through as a comparison? I forecast high fashion, which is often doesn't replenish either, but I've found that sales after a couple week usually account X% of my total sales for the season, and this gives me a reasonably good expectation of what sales I'll finish with. I realize this doesn't give you a specific model, but it might help how you approach the issue.

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