Use random forest outliers to detect group of variables

I have a input data and an output binary variable . The y value is 1 if the patient get ill.

> summary(x_or)
Symscore1        Symscore2        exercise3     exerciseduration3                       groupchange        age3
Min.   :0.0000   Min.   :0.0000   Min.   :1.000   Min.   :0.000     Regular to Regular          : 340   Min.   :45.00
1st Qu.:0.0000   1st Qu.:0.0000   1st Qu.:3.000   1st Qu.:2.000     Regular to Menopausal       : 360   1st Qu.:49.00
Median :0.0000   Median :0.0000   Median :4.000   Median :3.000     Transitional to Transitional: 171   Median :54.00
Mean   :0.5504   Mean   :0.5941   Mean   :3.651   Mean   :2.545     Transitional to Menopausal  :1492   Mean   :54.07
3rd Qu.:1.0000   3rd Qu.:1.0000   3rd Qu.:5.000   3rd Qu.:3.000     Menopausal to Menopausal    : 246   3rd Qu.:59.00
Max.   :5.0000   Max.   :5.0000   Max.   :5.000   Max.   :4.000                                         Max.   :66.00
packyears           bmi3            education3
Min.   : 0.000   Min.   :16.77   Basic     : 348
1st Qu.: 0.000   1st Qu.:22.32   Highschool:1013
Median : 0.000   Median :24.84   University:1248
Mean   : 4.397   Mean   :25.60
3rd Qu.: 5.714   3rd Qu.:27.72
Max.   :97.143   Max.   :57.09
> summary(y_or)
0    1
2129  480


I have fitted a random forest model and computed the outlier measure

    rf = randomForest(x = x_or, y = y_or, proximity = T, ntree = 1000)
out = outlier(x = rf\$proximity, cls = y_or)

plot(out, col=y_or)


From the outlier plot I can see that some of the samples with y=1 have a very low outlier measure.

The general prediction performance of my model are very low. Can I deduce from this plot that there is a subgroup of patient that will very likely get ill?

Basically I would like to say at the medical team that it is difficult to obtain a general model but that we are able to classify people with this characteristics...

• I would think about how to effectively transpose the data, and try to predict the patient by the fact they got ill. I would also consider adding an unsupervised clustering (kmeans + cubic cluster criteria, gmm + AICc) to the input data as an augment for training and see if it substantially improved results. If it did, then I could summarize ill by cluster, and look at the "higher ill-rate" clusters. Look at the Boruta package, you might be able to find the key characteristics that drive the "ill" disposition. Oct 25, 2017 at 19:55

• + i've been meaning to look at randomFloor but haven't had time yet Oct 15, 2015 at 17:41