I would like simulate appearance of publications in a forum and I need know what is the probability distribution of new question being asked in a forum. In my first simulation I used to normal distribution, but I think that the best distribution can be exponential distribution.

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    $\begingroup$ What do you mean by "the probability to add a question in a forum"? Do you mean you consider things are static ? do you discretise time ? how do you discretize time ? see my answer here: stats.stackexchange.com/questions/11414/… $\endgroup$ – robin girard Jun 9 '11 at 9:30
  • $\begingroup$ I would like to simulate one week in a forum. I need to know the distribution of number of new publications by day. $\endgroup$ – calejero Jun 10 '11 at 10:13
  • $\begingroup$ Do you have data of posts per day from which to assess any assumptions you make about the distribution? Are you explicitly interested in day of the week effects (e.g., perhaps fewer posts on the weekend?)? $\endgroup$ – Jeromy Anglim Jun 11 '11 at 1:49

The exponential distribution might be a good starting point for the waiting time between new posts. This would be equivalent to assuming a Poisson distributed number of posts in a given time period. There are some pretty strong assumptions behind a model like that, but it might make sense for your application.


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