first question here but hopefully you can help. Firstly I'm a web programmer by trade but I've touched a bit of neural networks in my university days.
I've got a project to do with predicting the likely hood of an event occurring. So I thought that this sounded like a job for a neural network. I (after quite a while) got my data together loaded it all into a csv, split into targets and inputs and headed into the MATLAB world of neural networks.
Loaded it all in and despite my attempts the Regression values outputted where always quite low like I think the best way 1.4e-1 (0.14) .I'm presuming this shows quite a poor relationship in neural network world.
I've played with my data chopping bits out filtering inputs that aren't important, trying subsets of the data but still nothing.
I've also modified the hidden neurons - would it be correct to say that the more neurons the more likely it is that the data relationship will be able top learn.
Should I give up and just say that the relationship between my inputs and outputs is unpredictable and hence unlearnable or perhaps there is another input that I don't know that will shed new light but as yet that is equally unknown (or perhaps even not recorded).
Also perhaps there is another method that I can use to learn the relationship that will yield better results?
Thanks for your thoughts/inputs. Richard
edit I tried the liner regression in medcalc. I got these results.
Hi well I had a go with medcalc and it gave me back this
Classification table (cut-off value p=0.5) Actual group Predicted group Percent correct 0 1 Y = 0 49976 0 100.00% Y = 1 61 0 0.00% Percent of cases correctly classified 99.88%
They don't look good do they? Richard
Edit 2 I'm a little concerned about divulging more information about the project that I'm working on because it's a little sensitive. It is time based though over several years and over various locations.
Given that you are saying that the relationship between my data and the outcome is based off neural networks and now the liner regression output is really weak - then that tells me that there is either more data out or that the occurrence of the event or output is well a little more random and just down to bad luck.