0
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My problem is similar to this one from stack overflow: https://stackoverflow.com/questions/23568275/cannot-remove-time-series-seasonality

I'll provide some data and make it more detailed. Please keep in mind that I am a beginner in time series, so do not overcomplicate my problem.

[1] 7.857481 8.122074 8.074026 8.042699 8.231110 8.346642 8.561210 8.395252
[9] 8.276903 8.246958 8.205492 8.241440 7.734121 7.984122 8.001355 8.201386
[17] 8.342364 8.504108 8.633731 8.604105 8.195334 7.971776 8.243283 7.770223
[25] 7.770223 7.828436 8.032360 8.223627 8.331105 8.372399 8.527935 8.544419
[33] 8.104703 8.162801 8.240121 8.144969 7.662468 7.833204 8.012018 8.091015
[41] 8.248529 8.300777 8.393895 8.566935 8.296297 8.030735 8.150468 8.220941
[49] 7.577634 7.864804 8.195885 7.950150 8.304495 8.184235 8.348775 8.416931
[57] 7.969704 7.964156 8.137396 8.058011 7.650169 7.687539 7.909857 7.990915
[65] 8.316789 8.151910 8.291547 8.352083 7.956827 7.971431 8.141190 8.103797
[73] 7.556951 7.702556 7.749322 7.906179 8.197814 8.100161 8.384119 8.398860
[81] 7.928046 7.951559 7.947325 8.231642 7.383989 7.584773 7.717796 8.090096
[89] 8.059592 7.996990 8.304247 8.132119 7.971776 7.845808 8.024862 8.220672
[97] 7.470224 7.693026 7.695303 7.929126 8.031385 8.128290 8.350194 8.044947
[105] 7.833600 7.731931 7.959276 8.161090 7.351158 7.570443 7.707962 7.892078
[113] 8.053569 8.078378 8.322880 8.144969 7.816820 7.761745 8.001690 8.059276
[121] 7.409136 7.452982 7.871693 7.747597 7.998335 8.090402 8.281724 7.978311
[129] 7.774856 7.807103 7.966587 7.855157 7.192934 7.430114 7.806696 7.829630
[137] 7.949444 7.921898 8.138857 8.008366 7.770223 7.609367 7.826842 8.060856
[145] 7.342779 7.404279 7.655391 7.789455 7.959276 7.945201 8.089482 7.865572
[153] 7.724888 7.718685 7.841886 7.957177 7.096721 7.252762 7.582738 7.609862
[161] 7.753194 7.886081 7.980366 7.873217 7.664816 7.479864 7.834392 7.921173
[169] 7.050989 7.357556 7.583248 7.885705 7.763871 7.860185 7.906179 7.738052
[177] 7.789869 7.608871 7.937017 7.810758
"","x"
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"2",8.12207437536222
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"43",8.39389497507174
"44",8.56693528331105
"45",8.29629711264251
"46",8.03073492409854
"47",8.150467911624
"48",8.22094116828139
"49",7.57763383260273
"50",7.86480400332846
"51",8.1958853913148
"52",7.95014988765202
"53",8.30449489796357
"54",8.18423477409482
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"56",8.41693076947784
"57",7.96970358327866
"58",7.96415571884094
"59",8.13739583005665
"60",8.05801080080209
"61",7.650168700845
"62",7.68753876620163
"63",7.9098566672694
"64",7.99091546309133
"65",8.31678912707152
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"71",8.14118979345769
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"73",7.5569505720129
"74",7.70255611326858
"75",7.74932246466036
"76",7.90617884039481
"77",8.1978140322212
"78",8.10016144693661
"79",8.3841188371909
"80",8.39886000445437
"81",7.92804560087478
"82",7.95155933115525
"83",7.94732502701646
"84",8.23164217997341
"85",7.38398945797851
"86",7.5847730776122
"87",7.71779621101358
"88",8.09009578318096
"89",8.05959232888755
"90",7.99699040583765
"91",8.30424746507847
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"93",7.97177612288063
"94",7.8458075026378
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"100",7.9291264873068
"101",8.03138533062553
"102",8.12829017160705
"103",8.35019365072007
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"113",8.05356916913454
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"116",8.14496941708788
"117",7.81681996576455
"118",7.76174498465891
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"121",7.40913644392013
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"128",7.97831096986772
"129",7.77485576666552
"130",7.80710329012598
"131",7.9665866976384
"132",7.85515700588134
"133",7.1929342212158
"134",7.4301141385618
"135",7.80669637252118
"136",7.82963038915019
"137",7.94944442025063
"138",7.9218984110238
"139",8.13885675069633
"140",8.00836557031292
"141",7.77022320415879
"142",7.60936653795421
"143",7.82684209815829
"144",8.06085575293432
"145",7.34277918933185
"146",7.40427911803727
"147",7.65539064482615
"148",7.78945456608667
"149",7.9592759601164
"150",7.94520113241276
"151",8.08948247436075
"152",7.86557175768479
"153",7.72488843932307
"154",7.71868549519847
"155",7.84188592898462
"156",7.95717732345947
"157",7.09672137849476
"158",7.25276241805319
"159",7.58273848891441
"160",7.60986220091355
"161",7.75319426988434
"162",7.88608140177575
"163",7.98036576511125
"164",7.87321705486274
"165",7.66481578528574
"166",7.47986413116503
"167",7.83439230291044
"168",7.92117272158701
"169",7.05098944706805
"170",7.35755620091035
"171",7.58324752430336
"172",7.88570539124302
"173",7.76387128782022
"174",7.86018505747217
"175",7.90617884039481
"176",7.73805229768932
"177",7.78986855905471
"178",7.60887062919126
"179",7.93701748951545
"180",7.81075811652936

I uploaded two types of the data. They are exactly the same. One is copy from R directly, and the latter is export.csv from R.

First, I plot acf for data and get this:

Well, I cannot post images. But you can get the image by a simple acf command in R.

Then, I difference lag 12 by datadif <- data[13:180] - data[1:168], and the new act plot is:

From the second figure, you can see that lag 12 is still significant. Even I try diff for datadif, I fail to remove seasonality.

What is this phenomenon? Briefly, how can we deal with it? I did not find the answer in the textbook.

Thanks in advance.

$\endgroup$
3
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Just taking seasonal differences may not be enough or even necessary to deal with seasonality. There may be some further stationary seasonal cycles.

The framework of ARIMA time series models is a possible approach to analyze your data. For example, in R you can use the function forecast::auto.arima to find an ARIMA model based on the BIC criterion. You can call this function from the tsoutliers::tso interface in order to account for the presence of possible additive outliers or level shifts.

Sample R code to apply this idea (for ease of reproducibility the output from dput(x) is posted at the end of this answer):

require(forecast)
require(tsoutliers)
fit <- tso(x, tsmethod = "auto.arima", args.tsmethod = list(ic = "bic"))
resids <- residuals(fit$fit)
fit
# Series: x 
# ARIMA(0,0,0)(1,1,1)[12] with drift         
# Coefficients:
#         sar1     sma1    drift     AO24
#       0.0483  -0.7080  -0.0034  -0.4777
# s.e.  0.1311   0.1046   0.0002   0.0922
# sigma^2 estimated as 0.009102:  log likelihood=147.47
# AIC=-284.93   AICc=-284.56   BIC=-269.31
# Outliers:
#   type ind time coefhat  tstat
# 1   AO  24 2:12 -0.4777 -5.181

You can see that the chosen model includes an autoregressive and seasonal moving average coefficients or seasonal order. An additive outliers is also detected but for the illustration of dealing with seasonality should not make much difference in this case.

As shown in the plot of the ACF and PACF of the residuals, the autocorrelations of seasonal order lie well within the confidence bands:

par(mfrow=c(2,1), mar = c(3,4.2,3,3))
acf(resids, lag.max = 48)
pacf(resids, lag.max = 48)

ACF and PACF of residuals

I don't claim that this is the best model or the only approach to analyze your data. The point that I want to show you is that just by taking seasonal differences, seasonality may not be fully removed or addressed properly.


x <- structure(c(7.85748078694253, 8.12207437536222, 8.07402621612406, 8.04269949689764, 8.23110984032815, 8.3466420902212, 8.56121007683301, 8.39525152061099, 8.27690348126706, 8.24695803256818, 8.20549161312024, 8.24143968982973, 7.7341213033283, 7.98412195870293, 8.0013550258267, 
8.20138595523861, 8.34236350038058, 8.50410795186758, 8.63373100766419, 8.60410456340553, 8.19533366716287, 7.97177612288063, 8.24328252304838, 7.77022320415879, 7.77022320415879, 7.82843635915759, 8.0323601479245, 
8.22362717580548, 8.33110454805304, 8.372398606513, 8.52793528794814, 8.54441917766983, 8.10470346837111, 8.16280135349207, 8.24012129807647, 8.14496941708788, 7.66246781520024, 7.83320394864106, 8.01201823915906, 8.09101504171053, 8.24852912480022, 8.30077696085145, 8.39389497507174, 
8.56693528331105, 8.29629711264251, 8.03073492409854, 8.150467911624, 8.22094116828139, 7.57763383260273, 7.86480400332846, 8.1958853913148, 7.95014988765202, 8.30449489796357, 8.18423477409482, 8.34877453979127, 
8.41693076947784, 7.96970358327866, 7.96415571884094, 8.13739583005665, 8.05801080080209, 7.650168700845, 7.68753876620163, 7.9098566672694, 7.99091546309133, 8.31678912707152, 8.15190987294091, 8.29154650988391, 
8.35208267135264, 7.95682712209011, 7.97143099776935, 8.14118979345769, 8.10379671298179, 7.5569505720129, 7.70255611326858, 7.74932246466036, 7.90617884039481, 8.1978140322212, 8.10016144693661, 8.3841188371909, 8.39886000445437, 7.92804560087478, 7.95155933115525, 7.94732502701646, 
8.23164217997341, 7.38398945797851, 7.5847730776122, 7.71779621101358, 8.09009578318096, 8.05959232888755, 7.99699040583765, 8.30424746507847, 8.13211877295581, 7.97177612288063, 7.8458075026378, 8.02486215028641, 8.22067217029725, 7.47022413589997, 7.69302574841789, 7.69530313496357, 
7.9291264873068, 8.03138533062553, 8.12829017160705, 8.35019365072007, 8.04494704961772, 7.8336002236611, 7.73193072194849, 7.9592759601164, 8.1610895128458, 7.35115822643069, 7.57044325205737, 7.70796153183549, 7.89207842124812, 8.05356916913454, 8.07837810362652, 8.3228800217699, 
8.14496941708788, 7.81681996576455, 7.76174498465891, 8.00168997809913, 8.05927622330565, 7.40913644392013, 7.45298232946546, 7.87169266432365, 7.74759683869289, 7.99833539595298, 8.09040229659332, 8.28172399041139, 7.97831096986772, 7.77485576666552, 7.80710329012598, 7.9665866976384, 
7.85515700588134, 7.1929342212158, 7.4301141385618, 7.80669637252118, 7.82963038915019, 7.94944442025063, 7.9218984110238, 8.13885675069633, 8.00836557031292, 7.77022320415879, 7.60936653795421, 7.82684209815829, 8.06085575293432, 7.34277918933185, 7.40427911803727, 7.65539064482615, 7.78945456608667, 7.9592759601164, 7.94520113241276, 8.08948247436075, 
7.86557175768479, 7.72488843932307, 7.71868549519847, 7.84188592898462, 7.95717732345947, 7.09672137849476, 7.25276241805319, 7.58273848891441, 7.60986220091355, 7.75319426988434, 7.88608140177575, 7.98036576511125, 
7.87321705486274, 7.66481578528574, 7.47986413116503, 7.83439230291044, 7.92117272158701, 7.05098944706805, 7.35755620091035, 7.58324752430336, 7.88570539124302, 7.76387128782022, 7.86018505747217, 7.90617884039481, 7.73805229768932, 7.78986855905471, 7.60887062919126, 7.93701748951545, 
7.81075811652936), .Tsp = c(1, 15.9166666666667, 12), class = "ts")
$\endgroup$
  • $\begingroup$ Thanks. A lot of new things to me. I don't think I fully get it. Can I understand this way: taking seasonal difference is only a simple linear regression and it leaves some effects in the residuals that have an influence on the same month but cannot be captured by simple linear regression; this is why ACF plot still shows significant at lag 12? $\endgroup$ – Yichao Lu Dec 10 '14 at 5:34
  • 1
    $\begingroup$ Taking seasonal differences is not a result of a linear regression but a selection of a seasonal random walk for the data, which may be appropriate or not for the data and may be enough or not to model the data. There may be other stationary cycles of seasonal periodicity to be captured by other terms of the ARIMA model, in the example first order AR and MA terms. Hope this gives you some intuition but I recommend you looking at some textbook or online documentation on time series analysis in order to get a better introduction to these models. $\endgroup$ – javlacalle Dec 10 '14 at 12:01

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