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Prove that the conditional expectation $\mathbb E[X\mid X>x]$ (here x is fixed, say x=10) is the unconditional expectation $\mathbb E_{\mathbb P^*}[X]$ under a probability measure $\mathbb P^*$. Derive a formula for $\mathbb P^*$ in terms of the original probability measure $\mathbb P$.

I can only think of taking double expectation on the conditional expectation to remove the condition, but I'm not sure if that's the right step to take. Any suggestion is appreciated.

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  • $\begingroup$ This is an homework question, isn't it? So please use the self-study tag. $\endgroup$
    – Xi'an
    Commented Dec 13, 2014 at 7:24

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$\mathbb{P^*}$ is defined as follows: $$\mathbb{P^*}(A) := \mathbb{P}(A\mid X > x) = \frac{\mathbb{P}(A\cap \{X > x\})}{\mathbb{P}(X > x)}, ~~~\forall A \in \mathcal{F}.$$

Of course, this definition is only valid when $\mathbb{P}(X > x) > 0$. It can be checked $\mathbb{P^*}$ defined in this way is indeed a probability measure on $(\Omega, \mathcal{F})$ and satisfies $\mathbb{E}(X\mid X > x) = \mathbb{E}_{\mathbb{P^*}}(X)$.

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