this is my first question here.
I have to calculate next year´s goal by department on justice claims. In 2014, we had 8910 claims. Some departments drop their totals comparing with 2013 and others didn't.
I want a total reduction of 5%, but this % should not be equal for every department: those ones that rose their totals must have a more aggressive goal, while those that have drop their totals can have a less aggressive.
Any ideas?
I have the totals per department and the variation 2014/2013:
DEPT. / TOTAL 2014 PER DEPT. / DIFFERENCE (2014-2013) PER DEPT.
A / 554 / +122
B / 2412 / -641
C / 4303 / +736
D / 1214 / +240
E / 389 / -340
F / 38 / -11
The sum of 2014 is 8910. So, 5% less cases in 2015 gives us -445 cases. How to distribute them among the departments in a way that C and D get the more aggressive goals while B and E get the less ones? I guess that I should use some type of weighting, but just can´t figure out how to do it.
A look at the data (since I have forgot the original table in my job, I´m posting a very approximate replication):
DEPT A 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Yr. Tot Variation
2011 234 435 267 125 176 185 123 238 294 279 123 435 2914 -
2012 272 473 305 163 214 223 161 276 332 317 161 476 3373 459
2013 214 415 247 105 156 165 103 218 274 259 103 422 2681 -692
2014 778 499 877 451 604 631 445 790 958 913 445 111 7502 4821
DEPT B 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Yr. Tot Variation
2011 234 345 678 987 234 645 234 456 265 135 543 476 5232 -
2012 224 335 668 977 224 635 224 446 255 125 533 466 5112 -120
2013 204 315 648 957 204 615 204 426 235 105 513 446 4872 -240
2014 169 280 613 922 169 580 169 391 200 70 478 411 4452 -420
DEPT C 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Yr. Tot Variation
2011 678 789 768 776 567 890 987 546 345 546 765 877 8534 -
2012 693 804 783 791 582 905 954 561 360 561 780 892 8666 132
2013 738 849 828 836 627 950 986 606 405 606 825 937 9193 527
2014 750 861 840 848 639 962 975 618 417 618 837 949 9314 121
So just to remember:
Total Number of 2014 cases: 23504 We want to reduce overall number of cases by 5%: minus 1175 cases in 2015 Finishing 2015 with: 22329 cases
But since DEPT B is lowering its cases year after year, we think that it´s not fair to assign a -5% goal for next year. We want to transfer a little amount of it goals for the other two departments leaving it with a goal like -3,5%, while rising DEPT A and DEPT C goals (let´s say 5,75 for both).
With this goals distribution we have na overall mean of -5% reduction (as needed) but I have not a statistical reason to apply it.
So based on this historic rising and lowering numbers and from 2014 totals (to get the 5% reduction absolute amount), is there any technique or workaround that could be made to stabilish 2015 goals as needed?