How well do weather forecasts predict the future weather?

For example, I would like to know how likely it is to be raining when forecasts predict 70% raining risk 3 days ahead of time.

I know there are plenty of weather data sets, but are there any data sets which contain information about forecasts specifically?

Has anything like this been done before?


2 Answers 2


There's certainly a huge literature on the accuracy of weather forecasts, including some work that led to widely used general techniques for evaluating predictions.

A data set of historical forecasts from a particular model is available from NOAA. The project sounds very cool, but the data looks quite complex. This is not the forecast from your local TV station!

  • $\begingroup$ this answer was using in 2017 on the OpenData site here $\endgroup$
    – philshem
    Commented Aug 31, 2017 at 12:14

I too was after the same type of data a couple of years ago, and amazingly enough I was unable to find the forecasts themselves once the particular date has passed. It means that you'd want to collect the forecasts actively over a period of time. While you're at it, I'd also suggest collecting a few types of forecast horizons: one day ahead, two days ahead, and until 10 days ahead (some websites offer that far ahead weather forecasts).


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